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A fan of The Paracast... and a skeptic

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crabtown

Paranormal Novice
I want to believe. Let's just get that out of the way first. I hope we're being visited by advanced beings, that consciousness somehow survives death that minds can be read and spoons can be bent. I hope there's a god or gods, even if most evidence suggests that any such beings must be either insane or indifferent. I wish cold fusion was real. I hope that something interesting happens in 2012. I hope the government is sitting on a vast storehouse of alien technology from crashed saucers. These things make great stories. They are strange and they appeal to me in the same way that good science fiction does, or popular explications of quantum weirdness. If these things are real, the story of the world is mysterious and strange and interesting.

I fear that the real story is more mundane. Nearly all of the evidence for the paranormal comes down to eyewitness testimony and that just isn't enough to make me a believer. I think that people lie, exaggerate, make mistakes and misinterpret their perceptions.

People lie because it's fun to fool people. It's fun to perpetrate hoaxes. People lie to promote the truth of their worldview. As a little kid I remember believing -- knowing -- that Santa Claus was real. Arguing with a skeptical friend, I made up a story about seeing Santa in my living room distributing gifts and magically disappearing when he noticed I was watching him. I considered this a justifiable fib in the service of a greater truth. I believed Santa had to work something like that, so I made up the story to help my friend know the truth too.

People exaggerate because human memory is an unreliable kludge of evolutionary Rube Goldberg designs and because exaggeration makes their stories more interesting. People misperceive. When I was a teenager I used to read everything I could get my hands on about UFOs. Once in the middle of a pitch-black country night, I looked out a bathroom window and saw bright lights in the sky over a nearby lake. There were three or four of them, white with a slight green-yellow tinge and they pulsed on and off while they maneuvered around each other and above the lake. I believe I was reading a lot of Ivan Sanderson around that time and was already semi-convinced that UFOs originated (or at least spent a lot of time) in our oceans and lakes. These lights seemed to dip into the lake now and then and had to be fairly sizeable given the distance to the lake and their intrinsic brightness. Adrenalin shot through me. I was actually seeing this and Sanderson was right. With continued observation, the lights turned out to be three or four fireflies hovering around about a foot from my face, on the other side of the window screen. For one brief shining moment, UFOs were real and I'll never forget the thrill of that knowledge. I want it back, please.

I listen faithfully to the Paracast every Sunday night because it makes me think about things that are fascinating. The ideas are not proven in any way, just thrown out there in the form of stories and speculation. Nothing wrong with that. Stories are fun and connect-the-dots speculation is an amusing exercise. Sometimes the guests or the hosts claim evidence that's "compelling" but I haven't seen any yet and frankly no longer expect to see any. But I keep listening, hoping for that one piece of unambiguous hard evidence. Because I want to believe. The evidence will have to be extraordinary: no amount of eyewitness testimony will do. I do not believe that Mohammed ascended to heaven riding a horse in front of hundreds of witnesses. I do not believe that thousands witnessed the sun dancing around that rainy day in Lourdes, no matter how many witnesses swore to it. I don't believe that Whitley Strieber has had more weird things happen to him than me, I just think he has a better imagination and more realistic dreams. I don't think there's a huge human face carved into the surface of Mars, but isn't it fun to think about what that might mean if true?

In short, I love listening to the Paracast for the stories. For me, it's a version of swapping tales around the campfire, surely one of the most primeval and compelling of human activities. But that's all it is. I'm close to certain that none of it is objectively true. And hope I'm wrong.
 
Most people who have read my posts would agree that i'm fairly skeptical on the whole aswell. However there are enough cases of UFO's atleast which have more than just eyewitness testimoney behined them.

I have still yet to hear a single possible convincing explanation for the Belgian Ufo wave, but in particular the incident when the jets were scrambled.... we have multiple eyewitnesses, police on the ground guiding the jets in, 4 different radars all tracking, the object playing a definite Cat and mouse game with the Jets.... the only explanation imo is extraterrestrial craft.
Also there are a few similar sightings in the US where the triangle object was seen by multiple police and radar etc.

the thing is.... once you establish that just one of the millions of sightings are really an alien craft, it suddenly drastically increases the probablility of all the other cases being true.

My brain works based upon probabilities, and since we are now finding planets next to just about every star we look at, and there are half a trillion of them in our galaxy alone, what suprises me is how is it that we arent being visited more often.

My housemate pretty much refuses to believe we are being visited, yet agree's that we will probably get interstellar travel in the next 200-500 years. So why is it so hard for him to believe that there might be another race out there 200-500 years ahead of us. I expect the galaxy is teeming with them.

As for the rest of the paranormal stuff, I still need convincing... a lot of convincing
 
I have still yet to hear a single possible convincing explanation for the Belgian Ufo wave, but in particular the incident when the jets were scrambled.... we have multiple eyewitnesses, police on the ground guiding the jets in, 4 different radars all tracking, the object playing a definite Cat and mouse game with the Jets.... the only explanation imo is extraterrestrial craft.

Why not unknown terrestrial craft?

Also there are a few similar sightings in the US where the triangle object was seen by multiple police and radar etc.

A few? There are lots and lots of radar visual reports of some kind've unknown phenomena, and lots of first-hand reports from law enforcement in many countries.

the thing is.... once you establish that just one of the millions of sightings are really an alien craft, it suddenly drastically increases the probablility of all the other cases being true.

I'm sorry, I don't understand your logic here.

...since we are now finding planets next to just about every star we look at, and there are half a trillion of them in our galaxy alone, what suprises me is how is it that we arent being visited more often.

We've found about 300 planets, virtually all gas giants. The existence of any earth-like planets anywhere else is still just speculation. We may turn out to be extraordinarily rare. The jury is still out on this, but for the time being widespread extraterrestrial life is just wishful thinking.

My housemate pretty much refuses to believe we are being visited, yet agree's that we will probably get interstellar travel in the next 200-500 years. So why is it so hard for him to believe that there might be another race out there 200-500 years ahead of us. I expect the galaxy is teeming with them.

You "...expect the galaxy is teeming with them"? Are you sure you're a skeptic?

Man-made spacecraft have already left the solar system, so technically we already have "interstellar travel".
 
In short, I love listening to the Paracast for the stories. For me, it's a version of swapping tales around the campfire, surely one of the most primeval and compelling of human activities. But that's all it is. I'm close to certain that none of it is objectively true. And hope I'm wrong.

Funny you put it that way,I just got done listening to the April 27th podcast where they are sitting in a bar (or something) talking while there is background noise.It struck me as a sort of "campfire" chat that I got to sit in on.The nice thing was how canded the discussion was,no holding back or acting like a fake radio fucker.This is underground paranormal talk that I dreamed of back in the day.Having to endure commercial raido was like a pain in my prostate.
 
Funny you put it that way,I just got done listening to the April 27th podcast where they are sitting in a bar (or something) talking while there is background noise.It struck me as a sort of "campfire" chat that I got to sit in on.The nice thing was how canded the discussion was,no holding back or acting like a fake radio fucker.This is underground paranormal talk that I dreamed of back in the day.Having to endure commercial raido was like a pain in my prostate.
We'll be doing that again from time to time. So stay tuned. :)
 
Why not unknown terrestrial craft?

the chance isnt zero, but its extremely unlikely given the way the craft behaved. To do its manuevers it would require infinite acceleration according to a top radar analyst. If anyone had this technology they would have used it for other commercial opportunities.... in my opinion


A few? There are lots and lots of radar visual reports of some kind've unknown phenomena, and lots of first-hand reports from law enforcement in many countries.

A few... lots... it was more a figure of speech...

I'm sorry, I don't understand your logic here.

Well basically, if it is proven that there are aliens, and they have visited.. then it is more likely that atleast some ofthe eyewitnesses are telling the truth. If someone tells you that he just saw a flying pig, you would assess that he is talking BS because of what you know... then if you walk down the road and see a pig fly by, there is a lot higher chance that the guy was telling the truth.


We've found about 300 planets, virtually all gas giants. The existence of any earth-like planets anywhere else is still just speculation. We may turn out to be extraordinarily rare. The jury is still out on this, but for the time being widespread extraterrestrial life is just wishful thinking.

True, but we've only looked at a tiny percentage, and prior to seeing these planets the common consensus was that planets might not be as abundant as what they are,


You "...expect the galaxy is teeming with them"? Are you sure you're a skeptic?
I'm not quite sure whether that was meant to be an attack on me, but anyway... most mainstream scientist believe that there is quite a lot of alien life out there. Seth Shostak is one of the biggest paranormal skeptics, but he believes that there are a lot of Aliens planets in our galaxy.... so i dont really see your point.... a skeptic doesnt mean that you blindly deny any sort of alien possibility... like I said I'm just working on probablities in my head,

Man-made spacecraft have already left the solar system, so technically we already have "interstellar travel".

I clearly meant interstellar travel in relation to taking people to different planets rather than sending an unmanned probe out into the galaxy, but yes you're right, that only goes to highlight my point.

Anyway, I am what i consider to be skeptical, if you read my previous posts I have seen everything from ghosts, to aliens, to flying triangles, and I don't believe any of it (with a possible exception of the triangle) is paranormal. I have actually riled up some of the other posters due to my position on things. I also don't however write anything off.... and I don't pretend to have all the answers.
Everything I write on these posts is just me spewing my thoughts into type, and isnt neccesarily meant to be broken down in such a manner.
Its just conversation...
 
the chance isnt zero ... If anyone had this technology they would have used it for other commercial opportunities.... in my opinion

It sounds like we agree that it's possible.

Are you trying to say that since the unknown craft hasn't been used for commercial opportunities, it must be extraterrestrial? Why couldn't we just conclude that the unknown craft hasn't been used commercially yet?

Although some of our previously secret stealth craft have been used for non-military purposes, I think most of them have not.

So, I disagree with your logic. You can't rule out unknown terrestrial craft because you don't know about it.

A few... lots... it was more a figure of speech...

Oh, I see. In my language a "few" is not equal to "lots". But that's ok, I understand your intent.


Well basically, if it is proven that there are aliens, and they have visited.. then it is more likely that atleast some ofthe eyewitnesses are telling the truth.

Well they could ALL be telling the truth, but that means nothing in regards to aliens.

But what you are saying now is more logical than if "...one of the millions of sightings are really an alien craft, it suddenly drastically increases the probablility of all the other cases being true..."


True, but we've only looked at a tiny percentage, and prior to seeing these planets the common consensus was that planets might not be as abundant as what they are

The point that I was trying to make was that since we have only examined a "tiny percentage" and still haven't found anything remotely earth-like it is too soon to be surprised "...that we arent being visited more often."

But even if 100% of stars had planets ( the percentage is much lower ) there are even bigger problems to solve. What if the average civilization only lasts a few hundred years before exterminating itself? What is the likelihood that any two civilizations would coexist "close" to each other and in the same period?

So, I don't think we can yet draw any conclusions about how widespread life is in the universe based on a few hundred gas giants found around a "tiny" number of stars examined.



I'm not quite sure whether that was meant to be an attack on me, but anyway

Let me clear this up for you: NO.

... most mainstream scientist believe that there is quite a lot of alien life out there.

I don't think this is a fair statement. I think it is more accurate to say that: Most mainstream scientists believe there is alien life out there somewhere.

...a skeptic doesnt mean that you blindly deny any sort of alien possibility... like I said I'm just working on probablities in my head...

I agree. But I don't think you are working on probabilities, you are assuming that life is rampant in the universe because we've found a few hundred gas giants around a tiny number of stars.

All we know about is ourselves, and we assume we are mundane and therefore common. But this is not a "probability", it's a GUESS.

We know nothing. We have no idea how unique we might be.

Anyway, I am what i consider to be skeptical, if you read my previous posts I have seen everything from ghosts, to aliens, to flying triangles, and I don't believe any of it (with a possible exception of the triangle) is paranormal.

Of course how you define yourself is up to you, I think I understand what you are trying to say.

Expressing surprise that ET is not visiting more than he is, just doesn't sound very skeptical to me.

I have actually riled up some of the other posters due to my position on things. I also don't however write anything off.... and I don't pretend to have all the answers.

Heh, heh, I know a thing or two about this. (Riling up forum members.) Don't fret over it, just always tell the truth as best you know it and be quick to apologize if it is warranted.

Everything I write on these posts is just me spewing my thoughts into type, and isnt neccesarily meant to be broken down in such a manner.
Its just conversation...

I apologize if I upset you, but I thought some of your statements sounded a little spewed. Ha ha there I go again, I'm such a jackass. :D

Seriously though, I do enjoy your posts although I don't agree with all of them.
 
Nah you didnt upset me, I make a rule not to be upset by anyone on forums because
1. I dont really care what anyone thinks of me, particularly those who don't know me
2. Because I know how easy it is for people to mis-understand your point in a forum, I know I upset 1 or 2 people with my recent posts on Jeff Ritzman but they weren't mean to be taken that way and if anything were mostly praising him.

The thing is its pretty pointless to get my posts, disect them, and then try to tear each point apart because as i said i'm just spewing out my thoughts and don't claim them to be gospel, its why i try to write 'in my opinion' a lot. In fact in my 'bring back paul kimball' post I cited one of the reasons being that we share the fact that we both admit that we regularly contradict ourselves.... its because this topic is so damn murky.
Admittedly my language often overstates my points, but half of my job is sales, so that just comes naturally :rolleyes:
I have though spoken to a few fairly well known scientists (completely unrelated to the paranormal) who think there is quite likely a reasonably high number of species on other planets.... but then i've spoken to one who thinks there is at best 1 more in our galaxy (the Uni in my town is one of the top Astrophysics uni's in the country).

My post was not meant to yell to everyone "hey everyone, the aliens are out there for sure!", it was just intended to spark some questions within the head of the OP who said he wanted to believe but couldnt think of any good evidence.... :)

Finally i'll just say that whilst you may well find fault in my maths, I do try to base my thoughts on probabilities. I currently think that I am 51/49 in favour of Aliens.
So you might ask why such a low share after the apparent high probability of there being aliens in my previous post?.... because in such a murky subject, there is such a high probability that many of my estimates are wrong.
:p
 
The point that I was trying to make was that since we have only examined a "tiny percentage" and still haven't found anything remotely earth-like

Not so fast.


http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9796321

I thought we had discovered something even as of this year as well, but can't find the story. I could have been thinking of this one.

I would guess that the probability of Earth being the only planet with life is much lower than the probability of there being life elsewhere. This is just based on the vastness of space, number of galaxies, and our inability to identify life outside of our confined neighborhood. We just can't see everything we want to see.

But the Fermi paradox may be resolved with innovation and imagination. Perhaps we can't see all this teeming life because we don't know how to just yet. But in time.....
 
Yeah thats right i remember that one. At the time we had found 100 planets, and 1 was looking like it was habitable. Now we have found about 300 i believe and I think there are one or two more.
Actually, half the reason we havent found more earthlike ones is that our best equipment is really only capable of finding larger objects, but that will all change with Kepler being blasted into orbit next year.

My point was that using the drake equation (not concrete i know), estimates a few years ago ranged from between 2.5-5000 detectable civilisations in our galaxy. At this time, we thought that many of the stars were solo without any planets.
Since looking at them more closely, we have discovered a much greater number than we expected, and this is ONLY looking at the larger ones with our poor equipment.
Therefore, the chances of other civilisations potentially goes up... It still leaves the question very wide open though....
 

I'm aware of the particular discovery, but I've had issues with calling this planet earth-like:

They think the planet is a little bigger than Earth, with about five times the Earth's mass. It orbits very close to its star, going all the way around in just 13 days. The planet isn't super hot though, because Gliese 581 is a red dwarf, which is much dimmer and cooler than our sun.
But it would be fair to say that it is the most earth-like discovered so far.

So, I am grateful for your post.
 
People lie to promote the truth of their worldview. As a little kid I remember believing -- knowing -- that Santa Claus was real. Arguing with a skeptical friend, I made up a story about seeing Santa in my living room distributing gifts and magically disappearing when he noticed I was watching him. I considered this a justifiable fib in the service of a greater truth. I believed Santa had to work something like that, so I made up the story to help my friend know the truth too.

Going back to the OP, I think this is a massively overlooked point in the UFO field. I actually think that it is the main reason for most of the non-true UFO stories.
People use the fact that they are not looking for money or have no motive to be a random hoaxer, but often I think they are convincing themselves that an event happened, and then convincing other without even realising what they are doing.
Of course mix it with those who are purposely decieving for money or fame, swirl it round with a few people who are having psycadelic (spelling?) experiences, add a touch of some real occurances and you have the paranormal stew ready to serve up to everyone in the field.

Sometimes I ask myself (and i'm sure others do) why I am so interested in this crazy business. It occurs to me however that we are all in it because we want to be right on the front row when the actual proof is served up. We want to be right in the thick of it when the aliens land, or the government announces "Houston, we have company".
Sure that might take years, it might never even happen, but its fun to sit here and discuss it while we wait... so there's no harm done, as long as you don't let it consume you and warp your mind... :eek:
 
The thing is its pretty pointless to get my posts, disect them, and then try to tear each point apart because as i said i'm just spewing out my thoughts and don't claim them to be gospel, its why i try to write 'in my opinion' a lot.

Why is it pointless? I have assumed (considering the venue) that you desire discussion. I apologize if I have misunderstood.

If you don't want to discuss your opinions, maybe you should say "I don't want discussion" instead of "in my opinion." This latter phrase is just inviting folks to share their own opinions about your opinion.

Admittedly my language often overstates my points, but half of my job is sales, so that just comes naturally :rolleyes:

I do agree, you are overstating your points. Well, I mean it seems you are drawing huge conclusions based on very little data.

I have though spoken to a few fairly well known scientists (completely unrelated to the paranormal) who think there is quite likely a reasonably high number of species on other planets.... but then i've spoken to one who thinks there is at best 1 more in our galaxy (the Uni in my town is one of the top Astrophysics uni's in the country).

Well you are backtracking a bit from "...most mainstream scientist believe that there is quite a lot of alien life out there..." down to a "few fairly well known scientists" but that's alright I have a better sense of your frame of mind.

Finally i'll just say that whilst you may well find fault in my maths, I do try to base my thoughts on probabilities. I currently think that I am 51/49 in favour of Aliens.

I think I see what you're saying, it's just you are not using "probability" in a context with which I am familiar.
 
oh lord..... ok here we go...

Why is it pointless? I have assumed (considering the venue) that you desire discussion. I apologize if I have misunderstood.

If you don't want to discuss your opinions, maybe you should say "I don't want discussion" instead of "in my opinion." This latter phrase is just inviting folks to share their own opinions about your opinion.

I do agree, you are overstating your points. Well, I mean it seems you are drawing huge conclusions based on very little data.

Ofcourse I want discussion, i welcome people to discuss what I say, and I welcome critical thinking, it just needs to be done in a more social manner.
You have to understand that its forum talk, you can't run around saying that I havent based any of my thoughts on any data when you don't really know the full amount of what i have based my data on, i am just summarising for the sake of a post.

Secondly, it isnt polite to go round telling people that their opinions of themselves might be wrong, using statements such as "are you sure you're a skeptic". If you said to someone " i like to think i am a nice person" and they said to you "are you sure you're a nice person, what about the time when...." you'd probably think they were being a bit of an ass, because its just an opinion of yourself.

Thirdly, discussion doesnt involve splitting down someones post and trying to tear each point apart with statements which are not nessecarily any more true than the OP's.
You instead use language such as "ok, so i see what you're saying here, but i disagree with you, i actualy think that this is more likely" rather than "you're wrong, and I am right, end of story" which might not be how you meant it to come across, but its how it read.


Well you are backtracking a bit from "...most mainstream scientist believe that there is quite a lot of alien life out there..." down to a "few fairly well known scientists" but that's alright I have a better sense of your frame of mind.
Thats what I meant when I said that i admit i overstate my points, I havent backtracked anywhere. I dont even feel i've gone forward anywhere to backtrack from...


I think I see what you're saying, it's just you are not using "probability" in a context with which I am familiar.

I think we just have different ideas about whats probable, and whats not... thank god we do, or message forums would be rather boring...
 
i welcome people to discuss what I say, and I welcome critical thinking...

Ah, good to know. I thought I was getting some mixed signals there.

...it just needs to be done in a more social manner.

I agree. This seems very social to me, we are not calling each other names.

I get what you're saying, you are just spewing stuff out and it's rude of me to take it seriously. I understand.

You have to understand that its forum talk, you can't run around saying that I havent based any of my thoughts on any data when you don't really know the full amount of what i have based my data on, i am just summarising for the sake of a post.

You are correct, I can't evaluate your thoughts based on what you don't tell me.

Secondly, it isnt polite to go round telling people that their opinions of themselves might be wrong, using statements such as "are you sure you're a skeptic".

Well sometimes it's essential. But I do agree that it should be done politely.

Thirdly, discussion doesnt involve splitting down someones post and trying to tear each point apart with statements which are not nessecarily any more true than the OP's.

I don't follow you here. Discussion is responding to your post. "Splitting down" the post is courteous, and makes it clear to what I am responding. It saves others from having to go back and re-read everything.

What is the difference if I quote en masse vs. "splitting" the quotes?

Have I said something that isn't true?

You instead use language such as "ok, so i see what you're saying here, but i disagree with you, i actualy think that this is more likely" rather than "you're wrong, and I am right, end of story" which might not be how you meant it to come across, but its how it read.

Thank you for the advice.


Thats what I meant when I said that i admit i overstate my points, I havent backtracked anywhere. I dont even feel i've gone forward anywhere to backtrack from...

Ok.

I think we just have different ideas about whats probable...

Something like that.
 
That's actually kinda sweet. Thanks.

Make no mistake, your work has brought me an enormous amount of joy.

Although we look at the universe differently (still), you have definitely changed the way I look at it.

So...no matter how it all turns out, be confident you have opened at least one pair of eyes to the possibilities.

I'm happy to just let the other stuff alone for now.
 
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