A moment in time

[Mexicola]

All right - I'm going to make the introduction quick. I just found the Paracast in the last two weeks. Never heard of it before, but I love podcasts and figured I'd do a search on a subject I use to love as a kid. UFOs.

So I've been downloading some past episodes, and just completed a looong driving trip where I completed the first 10 or 12 episodes. I finished the Mier rebuttle episode and when I got home I wanted to find the thread that had David's photo analysis - but then I came across the discussion of Sunday's episode.

David can't quit. I love Gene - I think he is a great host, but without David's dogged questioning, his expertise and ability to present his findings in a methodical manner, this show does not give what this subject needs.

This a real moment in time. In listening to Bill Birnes I hear so many similarities in the Mier rebuttle with Michael Horn - they are both good talkers who change the subject when they are about to be nailed down. The forum of the podcast needs to change - right now it is a court with no procedures, science with no method, and these people get to worm their way around incosistencies.

There is a monumental task ahead but I would love to help. We have to start a review of the literature out there - and start categorizing it into areas of verifiably true, verifiably false, and unverifiable. And I don't mean putting an entire story in one of the categories, I mean each statement of claim in a story needs to be placed in one of those three categories.

I love it when the Paracast has on Macabee or those early episodes with Freidman - I never had a clue about these people until I heard them on this podcast. I think great work is being done here and I can only hope it will continue.

For the record - I play a Rickenbacker 650C Colorado.

 

[0uterj0in]

I mean each statement of claim in a story needs to be placed in one of those three categories.

Welcome to our tar pit. It's made out of melted categories.

 

[Mexicola]

I've been really thinking about the needs to get respectability into this field but the truth is I just don't know that much about it right now. Or at least I don't know enough about it to know the best place to start. I will though one day... these podcasts are like Cole's notes to the entire ufology story for the last half century.

It has already saved me time from exploring the charlatans. I remember watching the Greer press concert with mild interest and then turning the channel when someone said they saw moon bases. I mean if it is true (highly doubt it) why would you introduce a cracked, fragile subject to the mainstream with such an outlandish story?? Unless of course you just didn't care anymore about it then the next buck you could squeeze out...

Not that I care about the mainstream. But the credibility factor, of which so much is attached, isn't helped at all. I think the main effect of that loss of credibility is a dearth of serious and scientifically sound researchers attracted to the research area.

Anyways, I have some questions and would be really interested if anyone could point me in the right direction.

1. Is there a database of sightings?

2. Has anyone ever done a statistical analysis to determine if these sightings are random or if they exhibit a pattern?

3. Has there ever been an analysis of the geographical distribution of sightings? Do they show any kinds of clustering? (I can already see the problems associated with this).

4. Has anyone, after a rigorous study of sighting characteristics, ever tried to predict future behaviour or make any other kinds of hypotheses that could be testable in some way? And no I don't mean Benny Hinn and his merry band of shysters!

I would appreciate any help at all...

 

[CapnG]

1. Is there a database of sightings?

Several, although the criteria of what constitutes a sighting are varied. Ufocasebook.com is one I can think of off the top of my head. There's also the old stand-bys at MUFON and NICAP.

2. Has anyone ever done a statistical analysis to determine if these sightings are random or if they exhibit a pattern?

Many have tried, I don't know if any have ever gained success. These things tend to happen in "waves". Locations tend to be either incredibly remote or near military installations.. often both.

3. Has there ever been an analysis of the geographical distribution of sightings? Do they show any kinds of clustering? (I can already see the problems associated with this).

See above.

4. Has anyone, after a rigorous study of sighting characteristics, ever tried to predict future behaviour or make any other kinds of hypotheses that could be testable in some way? And no I don't mean Benny Hinn and his merry band of shysters!

Again, see above. You should probably get a good grounding in all the big cases (here at the Paracast is an excellent way to start). Also look up lectures and presentations by the various guests on the Pcast on Youtube. I think if you do a thread search here on the forum there's a recommended books thread as well.

 

[111uminate]

I would also mention the work of Jacques Vallee. It's hard for me to single out any of his books, so I would recommend all of them. With a background as a computer scientist, he inherently felt it necessary to study the phenomena through pattern recognition and often stresses data based on geographical location. He has a great body of work regarding patterns in sightings, and reports on a world wide scale. His books mention them for the most part in briefing, so if you want a more in-depth analysis of what he's studied I would recommend studying his published papers. You can find them on his site.

http://www.jacquesvallee.net - Lists all of his books, bio, and papers.
http://www.jacquesvallee.net/bookdocs/AIAA.pdf - Direct link to his paper titled "Basic Patterns in UFO Observation". Very good read, and it's in .pdf format.
http://www.ufomaps.com/ - Also, if you're interested there's a site that's updated month by month attempting to categorize reported sightings by geographical location. The data comes from NUFORC (National UFO Reporting Center), and I don't know what the criteria is for a sighting being considered valid and ending up on those maps, but it's an interesting piece of data.

 

[schticknz]

I would also mention the work of Jacques Vallee.

I would second that to the nth power. Vallee has done some incredibly important thinking and work in the "field" that is strange field we call ufology. I cannot recommend a particular one to start with as I only read his books as I find them in secondhand bookshops and other places. But get them when you can, read them, and hold on to them, they're bloody gold.

Also John Keel is another name. He's more well known for the Mothman Prophecies (nothing to do with that Gere fella, of course ) but his ufo book, "Operation Trojan Horse" is rather good too.

But its like anything, read as much as you can but keep your BS-detector (tm) handy. There are a hell of a big boatload of dodgy people in this mad world of ufology so beware.

Its also good now and again to go back and read Donald Keyhoes books (he wrote some of the first ufo books) just to see that what is being said about ufos today is nothing new, and we're pretty much at the same point as where we were in the 1950s (are you listening, Steven Bassett???).

 

[macavity]

I would also mention the work of Jacques Vallee

Yep, I'll third that. Check out his his interview with Tim Binnall here.

 

[Mexicola]

This is awesome stuff. Thanks so much for the help. I checked out the Binnall interview with Jacques Vallee and immediately after downloaded David and Gene's interview with him. I haven't made it all the way through that podcast yet.

I'm definitely starting with this guy's work. One thing that struck me was the fact that Jacques has a piece of "metal slag" from a ufo. I had just listened the day before to the episode with Bob White and the metal slag he recovered from a glowing orange ufo. I wonder how prevalent this is, for some ufo's to spit out a piece of metal from time to time - is it always from an orange spherical ufo?

Wow - I think I have a new favourite ufologer - there should be ufology trading cards...: