California/ Superstorm

[Kieran]

Scientists have warned politicians to take preventative action as a superstorm, dubbed the 'Big One', is expected to hit California. Skip related content
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Scientists warn of 'superstorm' heading for California
Enlarge photo US Geological Survey scientists predict that the storm could last 40 days, producing up to 10-feet of rain and causing £190 billion ($300 billion) worth of flooding damage, which would make it the most destructive storm in California's modern history.

National Weather Service images show an atmospheric river system - a huge hose-like flow of Pacific Ocean moisture - moving onto the state increasing the risk of the winter weather phenomenon.

The storm scenario, combining prehistoric geologic flood history with modern flood mapping and climate-change projections, was released at an ARkStorm Summit in Sacramento, California last week.

The scenario suggests that a quarter of houses in the Golden State could be battered by flooding.

Weather experts say the statewide weather event, which strikes once every 100-200 years could bring an unprecedented scale of destruction. There is also a considerable risk of wind damage to the eastern part of the state, according to chief scientist Lucy Jones.

The last superstorm hit California between 1861 and 1862, but scientists predict that the threat of another one looms closer as weather patterns become more volatile, due to rising temperatures in the atmosphere.

US Geological Survey Director, Marcia McNutt said: "The time to begin taking action is now, before a devastating natural hazard event occurs. This scenario demonstrates firsthand how science can be the foundation to help build safer communities. The ARkStorm scenario is a scientifically vetted tool that emergency responders, elected officials and the general public can use to plan for a major catastrophic event to help prevent a hazard from becoming a disaster."

Jones added: "This is not just a Californian problem. There will be disruption to ports and transportation systems. The economic impact will be felt across the country."

"For a storm which can cause four times as much damage as earthquakes, Californians are less aware of risks they face from floods."

Federal and state emergency management officials met last week to discuss emergency preparations for possible superstorms.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/38/20110118/tsc-scientists-warn-of-superstorm-headin-98fda55.html

 

[Angel of Ioren]

This may be a little bit of media hysteria:

San Diego News | California Superstorm Debunked As Media Hysteria

 

[pixelsmith]

This may be a little bit of media hysteria:

San Diego News | California Superstorm Debunked As Media Hysteria

just like the 1970's global cooling hysteria, then the 1990's - 2000's global warming hysteria, then the 2000 - 2009 climate change hysteria, then the 2010 - 2011 global climate disruption hysteria, the looming 2012 end of the world hysteria, etc etc etc.

 

[plumbbob12]

Kieran:
Thanks for the link. Sometimes we forget that we live in a very active world, and we are very lucky to live in a very geological and ecological calm period. One of the unfortunate byproducts of this kind of modeling is the debunker. Here’s how it works: 1) the predicted super storm does not manifest in the time period predicted, and the debunker states that this is proof that the hypothesis is flawed. Or 2) the storm does manifest, and the debunker says: “Why did the government do nothing, knowing that this could happen? Must be a conspiracy from the left to reduce the population!
Can’t win for loosing. Anyway, interesting post. pb

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[Sloppy Joe]

I agree with the "hysteria" comments. I think some people are just so scared of the unknown and are trying so hard to be super safe that they're overlooking the extreme rarity (nearly non-existence) of such "big ones".

 

[TClaeys]

What's hysterical about preparedness??

Do we not have earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, flodding ,etc anymore?? This Arkstorm is an imaginary storm to test how ready we are for something like it. We will undoubtedly experience disasters just like we have in the past.

What happens when Yellowstone blows a hole in a large part of the country?? It has before and will again. Are we prepared to handle such an event?? No?? Then prehaps we should run through some scenarios where we test how ready we are and what we can do to improve the odds that less people get killed.

Although this storm isn't real it seems to be a reasonable measure to test the contingency plan when something inevitably does happen. Doesn't seem so hysterical to me.. am I missing something??

 

[Sloppy Joe]

Preparedness is fine, but these groups tend to make more of it than they should, in my opinion. I have nothing against there being protocols and procedures in the event sh** hits the fan and the worst happens. But I think some people take "preparedness" overboard. That's all.

 

[Kieran]

What happens when Yellowstone blows a hole in a large part of the country?? It has before and will again. Are we prepared to handle such an event?? No?? Then prehaps we should run through some scenarios where we test how ready we are and what we can do to improve the odds that less people get killed.

Part 1 of the BBC Supervolcano docu-drama.

 

[Kieran]

Brian Handwerk
for National Geographic News
Published January 19, 2011

Yellowstone National Park's supervolcano just took a deep "breath," causing miles of ground to rise dramatically, scientists report.

The simmering volcano has produced major eruptions—each a thousand times more powerful than Mount St. Helens's 1980 eruption—three times in the past 2.1 million years. Yellowstone's caldera, which covers a 25- by 37-mile (40- by 60-kilometer) swath of Wyoming, is an ancient crater formed after the last big blast, some 640,000 years ago.

since then, about 30 smaller eruptions—including one as recent as 70,000 years ago—have filled the caldera with lava and ash, producing the relatively flat landscape we see today.

But beginning in 2004, scientists saw the ground above the caldera rise upward at rates as high as 2.8 inches (7 centimeters) a year. (Related: "Yellowstone Is Rising on Swollen 'Supervolcano.'")

The rate slowed between 2007 and 2010 to a centimeter a year or less. Still, since the start of the swelling, ground levels over the volcano have been raised by as much as 10 inches (25 centimeters) in places.

"It's an extraordinary uplift, because it covers such a large area and the rates are so high," said the University of Utah's Bob Smith, a longtime expert in Yellowstone's volcanism.

Scientists think a swelling magma reservoir four to six miles (seven to ten kilometers) below the surface is driving the uplift. Fortunately, the surge doesn't seem to herald an imminent catastrophe, Smith said. (Related: "Under Yellowstone, Magma Pocket 20 Percent Larger Than Thought.")

"At the beginning we were concerned it could be leading up to an eruption," said Smith, who co-authored a paper on the surge published in the December 3, 2010, edition of Geophysical Research Letters.

"But once we saw [the magma] was at a depth of ten kilometers, we weren't so concerned. If it had been at depths of two or three kilometers [one or two miles], we'd have been a lot more concerned."

Studies of the surge, he added, may offer valuable clues about what's going on in the volcano's subterranean plumbing, which may eventually help scientists predict when Yellowstone's next volcanic "burp" will break out.