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Investing

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Randall

J. Randall Murphy
I did a search before posting this and didn't find a thread on investing, so I figured why not? Post your tips, opinions, forecasts, charts or psychic predictions on what's hot and what's not! Got a great idea you need some help with? Cool :cool: Let's network!
NOTE: No MLM promotions or blatant advertising or else :mad: <- Mr. Angry will send you a bill ! If you want to advertise please contact Gene and buy some! And no information posted here should be considered as "financial advice", only personal opinions and experiences, and everyone agrees not to hold anyone else liable for any consequences that may arise from their investment choices that may be related to the topics in this thread.
Here's my opener:

When I was growing up, my Dad got into investing and showed me his charts and how he used them to figure out what the market was going to do next. In an article he called "Black Hole Economics" he predicted that the amount of national debt would become so large that it would exceed the ability of the economy to escape from its growing mass, eventually resulting in an economic collapse and a huge rise in the price of gold. He also said there would be a corresponding collapse of the real-estate market and that if you had bought gold instead of property, you could cash in your gold and buy a whole block of houses for the price of a single one at the time.

I remember telling this story to a friend a few years back when gold was under $300 an ounce, and I suggested that they should buy gold and the US dollar and avoid real estate. Apparently my story got around and it came back to me that I was one of the "doom and gloomers" and that my opinion was the economics equivalent of tin foil hat conspiracy theorists. Then gold started its rise to over $1800 an ounce, the housing market collapsed, and the US dollar is still holding its own against the Canadian Dollar. My dear departed Dad was absolutely right and the so-called "experts" took a bath. So what's next?

Given the price of gold, it's my opinion that silver should be much higher. Unless gold drops below $1000 an ounce, silver should still be around $150 an ounce. But like gold, it seems to have been artificially held down by the same shady players and practices that held gold down for so long. However if the upward pressure continues, silver could break out and outperform even gold on a profit per ounce ratio. The upward pressure on silver is significant. Like gold, it retains value in an economic collapse, but it is also in heavy demand in many more applications than gold, especially since the advent of portable computing and communications, which uses huge amounts of silver for batteries and other parts, many of which are much more expensive than silver to recycle. This puts constant pressure on silver to meet increasing production demands.
 
I've heard the same thing about silver.

As far as my investing in things, I just don't have the time or the head to keep on top of companies p/e ratio, the strength of their board of directors, meeting quarterly profits etc., and because the product in question is usually dependent upon the availability of a bunch of raw materials that's a whole other sector you have to keep up with, that's too complicated for a bear of little brain such as myself.

But i am quite a news hound, I do keep up with political (not so much economic news even though they are intertwined) I subscribe to a lot of magazines and have found my investment choices from sources as diverse as smithsonian magazine...a favorite...and worldpress.org which skews heavily on editorial and opinion which I find very useful. I am good at breaking down and analyzing potential problems and/or solutions to a certain situation, usually one I have knowledge or interest in. I tend to favorite small solutions to big problems. Like most others I am not always right but by limiting myself to what I know or especially WHAT I AM INTERESTED IN, I don't fall in love with the next big thing. I find by limiting myself to just those things I don't get carried away or very anxiety prone, what that stock may or may not be doing I have no problems walking away and don't find myself tethered to my investments 24/7/365 always watching. Of course I am not going to get rich or wealthy and so some might think "what's the point then?" but I'm also not going to take a bath when things go bad. I know there's great wealth to be had...but only if you're wealthy in the first place..I don't like the idea of betting your money on other people's moods which tends to play heavier in the markets than reality does.

I mentioned earlier in the superbug thread how I waited...still am...for this privately held firm Intralytix to go public. Last time I spoke to them several years ago there was no talk of it, They are a company that produces bacteriapages to fight off bacteria related maladys that are becoming increasingly resistant to antibiotics.
 
I guess it depends on what the long term strategy is. If it's to make a quick buck and then get out I think those days are mostly gone. The bull turned into a duck. Companies with potential for long term sustained profits over years would be energy companies like those in natural gas and propane. There is real growth in natural gas right now. Believe it or not coal is picking up because even though we are regulating it into extinction in the US. it is a healthy export.

Video games are hot, but tech can be finicky over time. Apple stock is too high for me to buy right now.Healthcare has the potential to be risky in the future with all of the new rules coming into play with Obamacare in the US. Elder care is another story altogether. Lots of older people retiring and they need some place to go.Either 50s plus or nursing home corporations.

I never invest in the vices, but some people do and do well.

I don't rely on psychic predictions. Why aren't they all filthy rich?
 
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