Ron Collins
Curiously Confused
I have just heard the October 7th show. I thought it was a very good episode. Let me rasie an objection to one of the things Gene and David said.
Quote: "If we are being visited by alien beings, not just since 1947, but may be for centuries and they are way way ahead of us how could our puny weapons damage their craft."
Postulation:
Let’s say that in 2 years astronomers discover several Earth sized planets that are in the same general “life zone” as the earth. Then, let’s say 10 years after that some brilliant genius discovers a way to harness zero point energy. 10 years after that a group of geniuses get together and invent a new form of propulsion that can go .89 light. Then 5 years later NASA launches probes to these earth like planets. 27 years from today.
Now let’s say that it takes one probe 5 years (earth time) to reach this new planet. Then for that sake of argument, it stays 1 year and collects data then fly’s home (another 5 years earth time and consequently 5 years new planet time.). So since the day we launch it, 11 years have elapsed. 38 years from today.
Let’s say that this probe finds a race of beings and that the perceived level of technological sophistication is really low. They have organized themselves into distinct populations with complex social structures. They have built wind powered vessels to help them explore the oceans or their world. From our standards, they are very technologically remedial.
1. The media promptly reports it and the world rejoices! We now know for certain that there are other intelligent beings in the universe. Yea!
2. We convene a panel of learned professionals from all sorts of fields. Every country in the world is represented. Treaties are signed and it is determined that every nation will have equal say in this exploration enterprise. The red tape is unimaginable. The question…What the hell do we do now.
Clearly we must investigate every possible angle to exhaustion. Oh the questions that must be debated, the procedures that must be discussed and documented. Procedures on how we shouldn’t interfere. Blah blah blah. I will be conservative and estimate that this entire process will take about 10 years to sort out for the second mission. Yep, another series of probes is to be launched.
48 years from today we launch the next in a series of 10 probes. Each probe will depart 1 a month for the next 10 months. Hopefully, in about 12 years we will have a boat load of data to sift through. So, fast forward 12 years.
60 years from today.
Our probes return and we begin to plan our first manned mission. The data from these probes is sifted through. This process takes 2 years. More probes are sent to answer questions that have arisen from the data collected from the first series of probes. Another 10 probes are launched. 12 more years go by while we continue to plan.
74 years from today.
The probes return. However, there are political issues on Earth. 3 years pass until we are back on track and are ready to launch our first manned mission. The ten man mission has a big ship and a couple of smaller mission specific ships. It is determined that, to minimize our exposure to the inhabitants, we will enter the atmosphere and land in sparsely populated areas only 20 total times for this mission. The rest of our observations must be conducted from one of the small moons that orbit the planet. So, our team of 10 scientists, anthropologists, biologists, etc. board the big ship and with much fanfare set off. 5 years earth time to travel there (granted, to the ten man team it takes less than 5 years to get there, but let’s keep the time frame reference to earth time for ease of understanding.) The ten man team stays for one year. They land their 20 times and catalog an astonishing amount of data… and an equally astonishing amount of new questions. So, they come home. Another 5 years. In total they were gone 11 years.
88 years from today.
The data they collected is poured over. We have ultra-fast quantum supercomputers that can process the data in just hours so the only thing we humans have to do is decide which of the next steps the computers suggest that we will follow. This time we send 4teams. 20 landings each. Each team is assigned a large geographical area to collect data on. The teams spend 2 years observing. Then they go home. 5 year trip. They have been away from earth 12 years.
100 years from today.
But wait…there is something unexpected in the data. These creatures are much further along that they were when we started. They have now harnessed a very primitive means of self propulsion for their ocean vessels. While still experimental, it is of great interest and is very exciting to us. The prospect of keeping a manned presence on one of the small moons is brought up. NASA starts to formulate a plan. In the mean time Mission 3 gets underway. Again 4 teams and 20 landings are scheduled. 5 years to get there 2 year stay 5 years back. 12 years.
112 years from today.
The new propulsion technology has really taken off. It has cut down the time needed to travel from place to place and as a result the populations are migrating. Ideas and cultures are mixing. Trade is easier and quicker for them. Things are really moving down there. Our team is just overwhelmed. We need a constant presence. Well we are in luck because 5 years ago, just when our 3rd mission guys were leaving to come home, we sent a big ship that will house our permanent presence. So, we just need to wait 5 more years to get a message from our manned mission that they have arrived.
117 years from today.
We receive a message from our ourpost that they have arrived and are setting up shop. Now we start getting hourly updates and the data stream just keeps coming. Their technology is a bit outdated at this point (5 years old) so we load up some new technology and supplies on our relief mission and send it away. It takes 5 years to get there. The day it arrives, the technology our manned outpost is running on is at least 10 years old. So, 5 years after we sent the new stuff it arrives and starts to work. 5 years later we get the newer data utilizing the newer equipment.
127 years from today.
Startling news comes in. The creatures have begun waging territorial wars. 40% of the planet is engaged in this conflict. We must learn more. A new, special mission is launched. 5 years to get there. We hear nothing from this new team for 5 years until their transmissions get back to us.
137 years from today.
The creatures technology is advancing an amazing rate. A request for more specialized study equipment is sent. At this point we can create this equipment in a matter of weeks. So, we send it. 5 years to get it there. 5 more before we get data back.
147 years from today.
2 years later we get a chilling message.
149 years from today.
Something dreadful has happened. An excursion ship carrying 3 scientists has crashed. Report logs indicate that something caused a remote reset routine in the MS Windows Archangel XCPV operating and navigation system. The reset couldn’t have happened at a worse time. The planet has some severe electromagnetic storms and it appears that the usual electromagnetic countermeasures were temporarily disabled. During that time the excursion ship was pummeled with harmful lightening. This resulted in a complete system failure. All members of the excursion are presumed dead. A reconnaissance mission confirms it. Problem is, the creatures have recovered the craft.
After a stoppage of excursions for 6 months, we are unable to determine why the remote reset was activated. After an exhaustive inquiry, We chalk it up to a glitch and excursions begin again. 6 months later, it happens again. This time, no one is hurt and we have mountains more data as to why it happened. It seems that these creatures have invented some technology we were not aware of that has somehow caused the problem. Our team asks the earth based scientist to help.
We create new ships that can handle counter this new technology and send it to our outpost. This takes 3 years. 5 years to get there.
157 years from today.
The creature’s technological inventory grows exponentially. It is both surprisingly similar and different from our own. In less than 200 years they go from wind to a form of nuclear propulsion. Now, they are using their own technological track and have combined it with the technology they have recovered from us.
Surprisingly, we have to keep requesting more equipment and each time it takes at least 5 years to be delivered.
Here are my points.
1. Just because you are very advanced, you are not omniscient and without limits.
2. Different cultures on earth have presented very similar technologies that are also very different and can have unexpected circumstances. We can only assume that this can be exponentially true for cultures of other planets.
3. If you want to account for thousands of years of visitations, alter some of the times in the scenario I just presented. Alter the distances or speed of the interstellar craft used.
4. Nothing I have presented here is out of the scope of reason. The truth can be just this mundane.
Thanks,
Ron
Quote: "If we are being visited by alien beings, not just since 1947, but may be for centuries and they are way way ahead of us how could our puny weapons damage their craft."
Postulation:
Let’s say that in 2 years astronomers discover several Earth sized planets that are in the same general “life zone” as the earth. Then, let’s say 10 years after that some brilliant genius discovers a way to harness zero point energy. 10 years after that a group of geniuses get together and invent a new form of propulsion that can go .89 light. Then 5 years later NASA launches probes to these earth like planets. 27 years from today.
Now let’s say that it takes one probe 5 years (earth time) to reach this new planet. Then for that sake of argument, it stays 1 year and collects data then fly’s home (another 5 years earth time and consequently 5 years new planet time.). So since the day we launch it, 11 years have elapsed. 38 years from today.
Let’s say that this probe finds a race of beings and that the perceived level of technological sophistication is really low. They have organized themselves into distinct populations with complex social structures. They have built wind powered vessels to help them explore the oceans or their world. From our standards, they are very technologically remedial.
1. The media promptly reports it and the world rejoices! We now know for certain that there are other intelligent beings in the universe. Yea!
2. We convene a panel of learned professionals from all sorts of fields. Every country in the world is represented. Treaties are signed and it is determined that every nation will have equal say in this exploration enterprise. The red tape is unimaginable. The question…What the hell do we do now.
Clearly we must investigate every possible angle to exhaustion. Oh the questions that must be debated, the procedures that must be discussed and documented. Procedures on how we shouldn’t interfere. Blah blah blah. I will be conservative and estimate that this entire process will take about 10 years to sort out for the second mission. Yep, another series of probes is to be launched.
48 years from today we launch the next in a series of 10 probes. Each probe will depart 1 a month for the next 10 months. Hopefully, in about 12 years we will have a boat load of data to sift through. So, fast forward 12 years.
60 years from today.
Our probes return and we begin to plan our first manned mission. The data from these probes is sifted through. This process takes 2 years. More probes are sent to answer questions that have arisen from the data collected from the first series of probes. Another 10 probes are launched. 12 more years go by while we continue to plan.
74 years from today.
The probes return. However, there are political issues on Earth. 3 years pass until we are back on track and are ready to launch our first manned mission. The ten man mission has a big ship and a couple of smaller mission specific ships. It is determined that, to minimize our exposure to the inhabitants, we will enter the atmosphere and land in sparsely populated areas only 20 total times for this mission. The rest of our observations must be conducted from one of the small moons that orbit the planet. So, our team of 10 scientists, anthropologists, biologists, etc. board the big ship and with much fanfare set off. 5 years earth time to travel there (granted, to the ten man team it takes less than 5 years to get there, but let’s keep the time frame reference to earth time for ease of understanding.) The ten man team stays for one year. They land their 20 times and catalog an astonishing amount of data… and an equally astonishing amount of new questions. So, they come home. Another 5 years. In total they were gone 11 years.
88 years from today.
The data they collected is poured over. We have ultra-fast quantum supercomputers that can process the data in just hours so the only thing we humans have to do is decide which of the next steps the computers suggest that we will follow. This time we send 4teams. 20 landings each. Each team is assigned a large geographical area to collect data on. The teams spend 2 years observing. Then they go home. 5 year trip. They have been away from earth 12 years.
100 years from today.
But wait…there is something unexpected in the data. These creatures are much further along that they were when we started. They have now harnessed a very primitive means of self propulsion for their ocean vessels. While still experimental, it is of great interest and is very exciting to us. The prospect of keeping a manned presence on one of the small moons is brought up. NASA starts to formulate a plan. In the mean time Mission 3 gets underway. Again 4 teams and 20 landings are scheduled. 5 years to get there 2 year stay 5 years back. 12 years.
112 years from today.
The new propulsion technology has really taken off. It has cut down the time needed to travel from place to place and as a result the populations are migrating. Ideas and cultures are mixing. Trade is easier and quicker for them. Things are really moving down there. Our team is just overwhelmed. We need a constant presence. Well we are in luck because 5 years ago, just when our 3rd mission guys were leaving to come home, we sent a big ship that will house our permanent presence. So, we just need to wait 5 more years to get a message from our manned mission that they have arrived.
117 years from today.
We receive a message from our ourpost that they have arrived and are setting up shop. Now we start getting hourly updates and the data stream just keeps coming. Their technology is a bit outdated at this point (5 years old) so we load up some new technology and supplies on our relief mission and send it away. It takes 5 years to get there. The day it arrives, the technology our manned outpost is running on is at least 10 years old. So, 5 years after we sent the new stuff it arrives and starts to work. 5 years later we get the newer data utilizing the newer equipment.
127 years from today.
Startling news comes in. The creatures have begun waging territorial wars. 40% of the planet is engaged in this conflict. We must learn more. A new, special mission is launched. 5 years to get there. We hear nothing from this new team for 5 years until their transmissions get back to us.
137 years from today.
The creatures technology is advancing an amazing rate. A request for more specialized study equipment is sent. At this point we can create this equipment in a matter of weeks. So, we send it. 5 years to get it there. 5 more before we get data back.
147 years from today.
2 years later we get a chilling message.
149 years from today.
Something dreadful has happened. An excursion ship carrying 3 scientists has crashed. Report logs indicate that something caused a remote reset routine in the MS Windows Archangel XCPV operating and navigation system. The reset couldn’t have happened at a worse time. The planet has some severe electromagnetic storms and it appears that the usual electromagnetic countermeasures were temporarily disabled. During that time the excursion ship was pummeled with harmful lightening. This resulted in a complete system failure. All members of the excursion are presumed dead. A reconnaissance mission confirms it. Problem is, the creatures have recovered the craft.
After a stoppage of excursions for 6 months, we are unable to determine why the remote reset was activated. After an exhaustive inquiry, We chalk it up to a glitch and excursions begin again. 6 months later, it happens again. This time, no one is hurt and we have mountains more data as to why it happened. It seems that these creatures have invented some technology we were not aware of that has somehow caused the problem. Our team asks the earth based scientist to help.
We create new ships that can handle counter this new technology and send it to our outpost. This takes 3 years. 5 years to get there.
157 years from today.
The creature’s technological inventory grows exponentially. It is both surprisingly similar and different from our own. In less than 200 years they go from wind to a form of nuclear propulsion. Now, they are using their own technological track and have combined it with the technology they have recovered from us.
Surprisingly, we have to keep requesting more equipment and each time it takes at least 5 years to be delivered.
Here are my points.
1. Just because you are very advanced, you are not omniscient and without limits.
2. Different cultures on earth have presented very similar technologies that are also very different and can have unexpected circumstances. We can only assume that this can be exponentially true for cultures of other planets.
3. If you want to account for thousands of years of visitations, alter some of the times in the scenario I just presented. Alter the distances or speed of the interstellar craft used.
4. Nothing I have presented here is out of the scope of reason. The truth can be just this mundane.
Thanks,
Ron
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