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"Ufology, There’s a Hole in Your Bucket"

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Christopher O'Brien

Back in the Saddle Aginn
Staff member
[Say what you will, and I don't agree w/ everything he says, but James Carrion brings up several valid points in this op-ed piece that is worth reading. With the current circus surrounding the so-called "Roswell slides," the rampant suspension of disbelief by true-believers when it comes to obvious hoaxed videos and photographs; add in the utter lack of motivation by many newcomers to the field to become properly educated about the subject and I predict many of the old-guard of the field will desert this moldy, leaky sinking ship in the coming months so as not to get completely slimed by the ridiculous bulls*t the field is devolving toward. I say it's time to wipe, flush and start over already! —chris]

Ufology, There’s a Hole in Your Bucket

by James Carrion

Article HERE:

When offered a rational and irrefutable down-to-earth explanation of a UFO event, the believer will often counter as last resort with the UFO bucket argument of “well what about this case” - citing any number of anomalous airborne experiences documented throughout history. Their bucket is filled with stories of ancient astronauts, strange humanoid petroglyphs, aerial objects in medieval paintings, crashed saucers spirited away by sinister supra-governmental forces, decades old scientific studies, and of course the myriad of anecdotal stories faithfully recorded by an army of UFO investigators. The UFO faithful do not fret when one case is irrefutably explained away and pulled out of their UFO bucket– there are a million more left.

But when a whole historical wave of sightings like the 1946 Ghost Rockets is emptied from the UFO bucket - events from the very start of the modern UFO era, well then that is one big orifice that cannot be ignored. Such a huge hole in the UFO bucket that deflates the ET hypothesis in favor of a terrestrial one, makes even the so-called open-minded UFO investigator hold on to their bucket a little tighter less their own pet theory or case fall out and splatter on the ground.

After showing conclusively that the 1946 wave of sightings over northern and southern Europe has more to do with cold war intrigue than extraterrestrial visitation – the wider UFO community has countered my research with complete and utter silence. Sure, the boisterous and outspoken Stanton Friedman briefly tried to debunk my findings through proclamation, stating publicly that my book The Rosetta Deception was disinformation before he even turned over the first page, but when challenged to a real debate to discuss the evidence, his proclamations diffused away like flatulent hot air. REST OF ARTICLE HERE:
 
As a relative newcomer with an open mind and an empty palette, this field has been the most perplexing, confusing and ego laden field I've yet to encounter. It's a constant pre-game locker room scenario. If I didn't care about the subject itself, I'd be gone. As to James Carrion, I tried to read his online book and found myself wholly confused. His style of writing with an undertone of sarcasm kept me thinking I was missing something as I continued. I gave up midway through his book. There is also something in his personality which strikes a "wrong" balance for me, and that is...everything in Ufology can be explained if we just do a proper investigation. If I really thought that was true then three years ago I would have chuckled at whatever caught my attention and walked on. I do see him add the caveat that he doesn't rule out something extraordinary but I don't really believe him. That's just my intuition speaking. For me, looking at someone's work, I first look at their reputation in the field, which is btw, never clear cut description. And then I look at the work, the likely hood of it being true, the government involvement, etc. I don't see a problem with his conclusion to the "ghost rockets" being a cover-up to something else but I do wonder about the other sightings elsewhere. The descriptions never added up to aliens for me and I do think he's in the right direction digging through the paperwork to connect dots. But.....is he really trying to say to the Ufology community that he's going to save us from ourselves because some of us believe there's more going on out there than what we've been told?
 
Criticizing conventional wisdoms in Ufology is a good thing. Even if you don't agree with Carrion's conclusions about Ghost Rockets, he has certainly opened up some important areas for research when it comes to the early involvement of intelligence types in the field.
 
Criticizing conventional wisdoms in Ufology is a good thing. Even if you don't agree with Carrion's conclusions about Ghost Rockets, he has certainly opened up some important areas for research when it comes to the early involvement of intelligence types in the field.
The only thing about your statement that I don't have a grasp on is "conventional wisdom." What is it? We have camps, followers, threads that intertwine between all of them. There's is no one place that correctly displays this " pure Ufology."
I talked about this in another thread the other day, having read Chris Lambright's book X-Descending and seeing exactly where some of the science is right now and was blown away. But even Mr. Lambright couldn't avoid having to wade through the muck of Ufology to trace the truth of the science. His story is reminiscent of all the major cases that have government at the core shadowing the case enough to cause confusion and then a long history of add-ons that take an author years to unwind. Science can't just be science without first being folklore, hoaxes, tall tales and opinion.
 
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Maybe this is what I'm sensing from Mr. Carrion and just don't realize the history....... Follow The Magic Thread: What’s next MUFON? Book Burning?

Thanks for the link. I read that screed and it only confirms my impression of this guy from his posts in the Paracast some months ago. He appears to me to operate out of anger, animus, and resentment -- all far from rational motives -- directed at people at MUFON who apparently couldn't/wouldn't work with him any longer, at the ETH {who exactly is holding him down and shoving that hypothesis down his throat?), at his evident inability to attract a significant number of readers and followers, and indeed at 'Ufology' as a whole, as in this absurd statement --

"The failure of Ufology to weed out these side-show carnival acts means that Ufology has itself become a traveling carnival . . ." --

as if anyone or any group of people could control the nonsense proliferated on the internet concerning the ufo subject.

He 'wants his revolution NOW', but he's going to have to do more than bitch and moan in his blogs to achieve it. If he wants to prove that there's been nothing real in the ufo phenomena of the last 65 years he's going to have to do more research and shoot a few more holes in the 'bucket' of ufology.
 
He has a follow-up, explaining how he tried to start a dialog on MUFON's Facebook page, and was quickly shut down because he expressed a contrary point of view. That's no good.
 
He has a follow-up, explaining how he tried to start a dialog on MUFON's Facebook page, and was quickly shut down because he expressed a contrary point of view. That's no good.

Yes, I saw that, and it's not good. There's a history there for sure, and maybe no way of finding out what happened. I have a facebook page so maybe I'll visit the MUFON page and try to figure out more about the issues with Carrion.
 
Heidi Lemmer's post expresses one of my general frustrations when ufologists talk about their research -

The only thing about your statement that I don't have a grasp on is "conventional wisdom." What is it? We have camps, followers, threads that intertwine between all of them. There's is no one place that correctly displays this " pure Ufology."

To be fair, I don't think the statement she was responding to lacked context, but her concerns highlights a thing about ufology. If you're in grad school and you want to understand, critique or build off ideas in your field, you'd start by doing a literature search. You get all the recent or important articles people have published on a certain topic to find out what's going on. You review their findings or approaches and then explain how your research either builds upon the existing literature or challenges it.

Ufology doesn't have a tradition of publicly available scientific literature to draw on in this way. Whether you are interested in solving the UFO mystery or just understanding the field of ufology, it's impossible to evaluate anything you read without knowing the social location of its author and the historical context of its (mostly likely contested) creation. This isn't impossible, but it takes a great deal of time and is of interest to very few people.

Also, how do you build social institutions of scientific inquiry around a question that may not have a scientific answer? Where are the traditions and institutional infrastructures of methodological transparency, data sharing, organizational accountability, and protocols for human subjects protection? Carrion makes substantive arguments that raise questions along such lines. It will be interesting to see how, if at all, they will be addressed.


What Would Jim Moseley Say?
 
Constance, I don't want a revolution....as I have written before, trying to convince the wide majority of believers that the ET hypothesis is not a given and that there is human deception at play and has been since the early days of the modern UFO era is as useless as telling fundamentalist Christians to not hold their breath for the second coming. It is offensive because it strikes a nerve - a raw belief system that many hold dear. My bitching and moaning as you call it is not directed to those whose minds are already made up, but at the newcomers to this field, who have a genuine interest in knowing the truth. My research is not going to reveal the WHOLE truth but it sure will open up people's minds that this phenomenon is not just nuts and bolts extraterrestrial craft that people are witnessing. If your mind is pliable to be opened but the only "research" you hear is that being pushed by the UFO community or on the opposite end of the spectrum, the flat rejection of research as a useless waste of time by the likes of Michael Sherman and Joe Nickell, then you may just end up at one or the other end of that spectrum. If you can stop being defensive for a second and look at my research and can ignore my personality which I won't apologize for, nor do I expect anyone to apologize for theirs, you may just realize that what you and I have in common is a search for truth.
 
Yes, MUFON and I do have a history. I joined it because its motto was the Scientific Study of UfOs for the Benefit of Humanity, I left MUFON when it became clear to me that the leadership was not open minded to my research, and today I am a constant critic of its continued use of that motto while it refuses to adhere to scientific principals. There is no pink elephant in the room - there is a history between us and I make no bones about it. What does that have to do with my research? Nothing. Read my book at The Rosetta Deception and you will notice that the word MUFON does not show up at all. The word UFO only appears a few times in the context of conspiracy theory. The book is written as a history paper that would be more enjoyed by a cold war history student than those who enjoy UFO stories. The book does not focus on UFOs, it focuses on the events that later on become entangled with the UFO subject. And most importantly, it is not complete. The book is being doubled in length with all of the new research I am adding, including very important new data I have uncovered on the 1946 Ghost Rockets. And if you think the UFO community is upset with me now, just wait until my new research project and book "The Roswell Deception" is released.
 
So can we assume that the Roswell Deception also involves cold war hijinks and smoke and mirrors using our parents tax dollars ?
 
Yes, MUFON and I do have a history. I joined it because its motto was the Scientific Study of UfOs for the Benefit of Humanity, I left MUFON when it became clear to me that the leadership was not open minded to my research, and today I am a constant critic of its continued use of that motto while it refuses to adhere to scientific principals. There is no pink elephant in the room - there is a history between us and I make no bones about it. What does that have to do with my research? Nothing. Read my book at The Rosetta Deception and you will notice that the word MUFON does not show up at all. The word UFO only appears a few times in the context of conspiracy theory. The book is written as a history paper that would be more enjoyed by a cold war history student than those who enjoy UFO stories. The book does not focus on UFOs, it focuses on the events that later on become entangled with the UFO subject. And most importantly, it is not complete. The book is being doubled in length with all of the new research I am adding, including very important new data I have uncovered on the 1946 Ghost Rockets. And if you think the UFO community is upset with me now, just wait until my new research project and book "The Roswell Deception" is released.
I've said this often lately, I'm a newbie to the field. And it has become very important for me to know where people stand. Not so much on each case but overall. The more you've talked the more I like you. All along it's been important to know that the people I take the time to read up on, read their book, etc, must be sincere in not ruling out all aspects until they've either come up with the final on a case or keep it unknown. Maybe your current subject is easier for me versus others, it never seemed like alien when I read the stories. But I do appreciate your perseverance and keeping it honest. I'll look forward to the podcast!
 
Constance, I don't want a revolution....as I have written before, trying to convince the wide majority of believers that the ET hypothesis is not a given and that there is human deception at play and has been since the early days of the modern UFO era is as useless as telling fundamentalist Christians to not hold their breath for the second coming. It is offensive because it strikes a nerve - a raw belief system that many hold dear. My bitching and moaning as you call it is not directed to those whose minds are already made up, but at the newcomers to this field, who have a genuine interest in knowing the truth. My research is not going to reveal the WHOLE truth but it sure will open up people's minds that this phenomenon is not just nuts and bolts extraterrestrial craft that people are witnessing.


No doubt most people who fail to follow the ufo subject beyond youtube videos are vulnerable to the "nuts and bolts extraterrestrial craft" hypothesis as a total explanation of ufo phenomena. I don't think they are likely to read your book or your blogs, however. And in the meantime, what you write about the ETH and ufo research in general seems to me to be needlessly confrontational, inviting equally strong responses .

First, let me say that if I had known you were about to be interviewed again on the Paracast (and thus that you might still be reading this forum), I would have been less confrontational toward/about you in my post. I did not intend to put you on the defensive here by my responses to Chris O’Brien’s opening post. I intended to express my suspicions of the confrontational manner of your former postings here and in the blog that Chris linked.

No doubt you are correct in your identification of US attempts to manipulate the global political situation at the time of the ‘ghost rockets’ phenomenon in Sweden. Both the UK and the US were jockeying for position with the Swedes in their investigation and interpretation of the ghost rockets, and from my previous reading about that it was the UK that won out in terms of maintaining influence with the Swedes and admission to their internal investigation. (correct me if I’m misremembering what I read long ago)

It’s obvious that the US attempted then, and has attempted since then, to manipulate public perceptions of ufo phenomena (as well as international politics) in a number of ways and for a variety of reasons. And no doubt the US national security agencies’ increasing interest in mind-control technologies, including mind-altering drugs and hypnosis in addition to other manipulations, became influential in the determination of these agencies to find ways of controlling public perceptions of ufo-related events and situations as well as political ones. A lengthy and informative article on this broad subject is provided by Clueless Wonder at his website ‘The UFO Trail’ at this link:

http://ufotrail.blogspot.com/2014/08/psy-ops-and-mind-control-then-now-and.html

Brewer also writes in general support of the research presented in your recent book, The Rosetta Deception, at this link:

http://ufotrail.blogspot.com/2014/10/considerations-of-work-of-james-carrion.html

Here is an extract from that blog:

Perhaps the biggest hurdle to accurately understanding intelligence operations, and particularly those that overlap with the UFO community, would be the failure to consider there is no all inclusive explanation. There is more than one reason the IC manipulated circumstances commonly perceived as related to UFOs. The purposes and objectives change from one specific circumstance to the next and cannot be discussed effectively in an overly generalized manner. Particular eras and specific cases should be considered independently of one another.

Consider, for example, a now declassified 1954 CIA memo in which agents were instructed to contemplate fabricating a sensational UFO story. The purpose of the potential fabrication was not in and of itself to deceive the public. The objective, according to the memo, was to divert public attention from Agency involvement in a Guatemalan coup.

If we neglect to seek such documents, we fail ourselves as researchers. We also fail as interested members of the public searching for accurate information.

If we perpetually subscribe to extreme beliefs, to either side of center, we increase the likelihood we are missing important data. That would be the case in arguing the IC was never involved in ufology, as well as limiting our perspectives to the incorrect assumptions that the only objectives must have involved either covering up an alien presence or the polar opposite of deceiving the public into believing aliens are among us. As Carrion suggests in his work and the 1954 CIA memo demonstrates, there are many potential objectives for UFO-related deception operations. Their intricacy would be par for the course, not the exception to the rule.

Here is an extract from another blog by Brewer written after your interview on the Paracast last July:

At the 2:06:30 point of the interview, Carrion commented on MUFON in general. Are they sincere or advancing disinformation?

"I don't think you can really label it that easily. I think there are folks that genuinely have – in the organization – that have a genuine interest in knowing the truth. I think there are folks in the organization that are very much true believers and they discard a lot of evidence presented to them... I've fallen out of favor with MUFON in that they lost their way. Their motto is the scientific investigation of UFOs and you would be hard pressed to find anything that resembles science in that organization.

I think that's reflected in these shows that they're doing on Discovery Channel. You know, it's almost embarrassing to watch to see MUFON lower themselves to repeating mythology and repeating folklore and repeating outrageous allegations, and not sticking to what they should be sticking to, which is pure science.[/quote]

http://ufotrail.blogspot.com/2014/07/james-carrion-to-podcasters-deception.html

Would that they could rely on 'pure science' performed by scientists working in the public interest to follow up on the data they collect and the data that has been collected by citizen ufo researchers over the last 65 years. More about that below.

I think there’s no question that research into the history of the alphabet agencies, the US military, and the military industrial complex relating to ufo research is necessary in studying the history of ufo phenomena and public perceptions about these phenomena. But I think these varieties of manipulation and disinformation are a far cry from demonstrating that the entire modern ufo phenomenon can be accounted for as a massive, planet-wide ‘psy op’ that undermines the ETH as, in the words of the COMETA scientists and researchers, “the best available hypothesis” for those cases providing evidence that some ufos have been physically real (substantial), intelligently operated, and “not ours.” [That evidence consists of radar data, demonstrable electromagnetic interference in encounters in the air, and physical trace evidence on the ground in soils and plants, on bent railroad ties, etc. That evidence is sufficient to support educated civilian as well as scientific hypotheses concerning the physical nature and possible origin -- i.e., 'not us' -- of some ufos in a number of events and cases.]

Continued investigation of ufos evidencing physical reality and effects is a necessary (even vital) undertaking for a species such as ours living in a physical world and experiencing our planet’s 65-year-long modern ufo history. The ETH was and remains a reasonable hypothesis, might even be the ‘best available hypothesis’, concerning those ufo events and cases that most interest us. The related interdimensional hypothesis also has its merits, though it is based on pure theory rather than scientific knowledge at this point. Your general attack on the ETH strikes me as being presuppositional and ill-advised in our current situation given the limitations of our species’ available knowledge about the physical world in which we exist. In our present situation, given the continuing “default of science” in addressing ufo phenomena {as argued by James McDonald in the 1960s and again by Bruce Maccabee in recent years}, I think it is also essentially unreasonable to declare that MUFON’s continuing data-gathering and analyses do more harm than good since its participating researchers are in general unable to perform fully ‘scientific’ analyses of cases. Let us grant then that MUFON is not COMETA and does not approach the level of scientific investigation of ufos recommended by the scientific panel assembled by Sturrock in the 90s and still called for by many ufo researchers today. As I see it, MUFON still serves the interests of ufo inquiry in gathering data into the present, despite the unwillingness of scientists to participate in its work.

Given the failure of public science to investigate and report to the public concerning ufo phenomena , and given the continuous manipulation of public perceptions concerning ufos effected by the security agencies of the US government, we in the ‘ufo community’ are still being kept like mushrooms in the dark and fed bullshit by our own official agencies. Add to that the increasing doubt engineered in our popular culture concerning the reliability of our species’ general capacities for perceiving and thinking rationally about what we see, and we have a situation in which numerous increasingly fanciful theories thrive, also recommending that ufo research and hypotheses of the past be shuttled. .

As I see it, we need by all means to understand how and by whom our conceptions about ufo phenomena have been manipulated, and whyfor what purpose or purposes. We also need to understand more about the nature of human perception and consciousness – and this is work in progress in multiple fields. And we need to continue pursuing the data and evidence concerning unidentified ufos witnessed around and sometimes landed upon the earth on which we dwell – to the extent to which we can do that without the participation of science.

To the extent to which your attacks on MUFON and the ufo research of the last six decades undermine the will of people interested in ufos to pursue physical explanations for those ufos that call for it, I think you are doing a disservice to the field. If you continue to seek confrontation with the complement of ufo researchers of the past and present, you will continue to receive confrontational responses. Why not lose the provocative attitude and make your contributions to this enormous and much-vexed subject on their own merits, as partial and useful insights into the complexity of the various phenomena we are dealing with? And kindly drop the contemptuous references to ufo ‘true believers’. None of us civilians know enough at this point to reach an informed conviction that we can account for the nature and origin of all or even some ufos and related phenomena. We are a long way from reaching that point, and your particular approach to the subject can make, does make, a partial contribution to our understanding. Why not be satisfied with that?
 
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(Given the failure of public science to investigate and report to the public concerning ufo phenomena , and given the continuous manipulation of public perceptions concerning ufos effected by the security agencies of the US government, we in the ‘ufo community’ are still being kept like mushrooms in the dark and fed bullshit by our own official agencies. Add to that the increasing doubt engineered in our popular culture concerning the reliability of our species’ general capacities for perceiving and thinking rationally about what we see, and we have a situation in which numerous increasingly fanciful theories thrive, also recommending that ufo research and hypotheses of the past be shuttled. )

Well said!
 
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