Ufology's best argument

[Ezechiel]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/deadlineusa/2009/apr/22/ufos-apollo-astronaut-extraterrestrials
Mitchell, who has a PhD in aeronautics and astronautics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said it's only a matter of time before we need to evacuate Earth and seek a new home. "The sun will burn out in due course, and we have to be off this planet if our species is to survive. At this point in human history on this planet, we're now starting, and should be, to reach out beyond our planet and then beyond our solar system to find out what is really going on out there."

How many times has this type of evacuation occured in the past 14 billion years ? and why would ours be the first

The awareness of star life-cycles forces a deadline on all sentient life. That survival instinct, rush for progress and technological evolution has a purpose: to get us off this planet, migrate and perpetuate life.

In essence, its abnormal and illogical not to expect a variety of civilizations wandering in search of sanctuary or adopting opportunistic behaviors.

 

[ANTIMONITOR]

That is a great point. I had not quite thought of things that way! Just as any intelligent species must eventually learn about how their star functions... Isn't it amazing how nature shows it's hand, once you have the right perspective?

 

[Ezechiel]

That is a great point. I had not quite thought of things that way! Just as any intelligent species must eventually learn about how their star functions... Isn't it amazing how nature shows it's hand, once you have the right perspective?

For some weird reason, we don't hear much about that perspective in ufology. It is solid, based in science and it certainly explains why some ufo's crash ...[as in were in a rush to leave and only had time to build dicey technology adapted only to home-world atmospheric conditions]

Instinctively speaking, this galaxy is swarming with life. We just haven't built the eyes to see it yet (actually the Kepler space telescope might come in handy )

There's definitely a Noah's ark in our collective future or else we'll face the hell fires of our sun ROFL.

 

[Ron Collins]

It is solid, based in science and it certainly explains why some ufo's crash

If we can agree that UFO's represent technology of some sort then that technology can fail. I don't care if that technology comes from outerspace, planet core, dimension X, or the future. There has never been nor ever will be a perfect technology. I have never found he "if they are (insert origin theory here) then their technology would be so superior that it would never crash and we could never shoot it down!" argument to be realistic regardless of the origin. Especially if dealing with radically different opposing technologies. If "they" have super advanced technology then that technology would be ridiculously complex. As we can tell from our own experiences with our own technology, with every degree of complexity there are 2 or 3 degrees of things that can go wrong. Why oh why would we assume "they" are flawless?

Sorry for the mini-rant. That is a sore spot for me.

 

[ANTIMONITOR]

Yeah, infallibility is not a frequent occurrence...well, ANYWHERE. Yes machines fail. There must also be allowances for "human" error. That is part of what fascinates me the most about the whole concept of non-human sentience is what would be our commonalities? Not in a space brother kind of way, but in learning what flaws and idiosyncrasies we share. These beings have such a majesty and mystery to them, a gloss of the enigmatic... But then so does glamorous movie-starlet "X" walking by until you until your path crosses into where she was and you realize that she definately broke wind.

The oft repeated observation of UFO's shooting away at high speed from a standstill always provides a mental image that makes me chuckle, as if the occupants suddenly realize "Oh Shit!" they are visible to the natives and spill their space-popcorn, while pulling the UFO equivalent of tire-screeching, fish-tailing getaway. There was also the old "Far Side" cartoon where the panel shows two aliens making first contact, but one of them has just tripped down their ships exit ramp and fallen flat on his face.

All kidding aside, I wonder what other logical inferences we could draw based on what we know of how sentient development is reactionary to laws of nature. For example, if they have craft capable traveling though whatever medium, be it space, time, dimensions, flavor-country- WHATEVER -then they obviously developed tools in a progression just like we did. Assuming, they are beings bound by gravity and personal locomotion, how similar might the circumstances be between their invention of the wheel (for example) and ours?

 

[dhatz]

However, Ufology doesn't even try to make its argument persuasively ...

I just tried to watch some clips of the latest "UFO Hunters" (which AFAIK is currently the only show of its kind on TV) episode about "Nazi UFOs" on Youtube ... After 10 min my cringe reflex is exhausted (to borrow a phrase used in Palin's debates). I think HC / UFO Hunters have hit bottom with this one.

Don't get me wrong, I understand it's hard to produce a show every week, on what I guess would be a pretty small budget. But their UFO series would be about a ZILLION times better if History Channel would just dig the CUFOS / NICAP files and present some of those stories, re-created with computer graphics. Along with similar cases occuring today from MUFON-CMS or NUFORC ?

And can't they at least get sensible people who are familiar with UFO history like Jerry Clark ?

 

[PhantomAce]

However, Ufology doesn't even try to make its argument persuasively ...

I just tried to watch some clips of the latest "UFO Hunters" (which AFAIK is currently the only show of its kind on TV) episode about "Nazi UFOs" on Youtube ... After 10 min my cringe reflex is exhausted (to borrow a phrase used in Palin's debates). I think HC / UFO Hunters have hit bottom with this one.

Don't get me wrong, I understand it's hard to produce a show every week, on what I guess would be a pretty small budget. But their UFO series would be about a ZILLION times better if History Channel would just dig the CUFOS / NICAP files and present some of those stories, re-created with computer graphics. Along with similar cases occuring today from MUFON-CMS or NUFORC ?

And can't they at least get sensible people who are familiar with UFO history like Jerry Clark ?

UFO Hunters is probably gone after this year. After Ted Acworth left the show its been a train wreck,(not that it was all that good anyway).

Looks like the new guy Kevin Cook was brought in to argue and give funny looks at Birnes. The Nazi UFO's was my last one, I'm done.

 

[Ron Collins]

The Nazi UFO's was my last one, I'm done.

Yeah, I have said that about a hundred times. Yet, just like a good five car pile up or a three alarm grease fire, I can't stop looking!

Now, I cant believe I am going to say this. God help me, but there have been a few things that they have presented that are worth something. unfortunately, you have to wade through a swamp of crap to get to them but... The Rendalsham Lighthouse was probably the best of these but there have been others. But, as they say where I come from "The sun shines on a dogs ass every now and again."

 

[ANTIMONITOR]

I never watched a single episode of UFO Hunters, or Ghost Hunters for that matter. It just seems like a ludicrous concept to take two things that are notoriously elusive- to the point where some people doubt their reality -and claim one is a "Hunter". I can give a little slack to ghost hunters, since there does seem to be a distinct looping effect to their existence... Maybe, one actually can arrange to be present at a manifestation. EVP are sometimes intriguing for sure, but UFO's?

UFO Hunters sounds like what Stephen Greer does with his flashlight. Or maybe more like last weeks Crop Circle Ed being able to predict where a UFO would appear. Next will be a Crocodile Hunter-style version, where some exuberant Kiwi will wrestle Reptilian's to the ground and besmirch the dignity of Yeti... Those sad soulful Yeti eyes.

 

[Ezechiel]

If we can agree that UFO's represent technology of some sort then that technology can fail.

Failure rates mostly depend on experience and exposure to a variety of environments: An infernal test and adjust cycle until its almost perfect.

Its a given that you'll find races at all kinds of levels of experience out there. Races with the lowest experience will obviously be those forced out of their system without having been able to reach adequate technological levels to fully support inter-stellar travel .

Why you'd expect perfection from anything outside of earths environment probably finds its roots in religious belief

 

[jpw.in.wi]

That is a great point. I had not quite thought of things that way! Just as any intelligent species must eventually learn about how their star functions... Isn't it amazing how nature shows it's hand, once you have the right perspective?

About how many more billions of years do we have left to develop the technology to evacuate Earth? We've been here for such a short period of time, it's truly mind-boggling to try to imagine what the human race/Earth will be like even in another 200,000 years!

 

[David Biedny]

We can't predict what this species will look like in a few hundred years, much less thousands of years, or millions. Technology will continue to be incorporated into the human body in ways that we can't imagine (although I think that Ray Kurzweil is way, way off on his theories in this area), and the environment, that "dead" thing in which we live, will also have it's say regarding our evolution. Oh, that's right, there is no such thing as evolution, it's all about DOG™ and his will. Or something...

dB

 

[Ezechiel]

About how many more billions of years do we have left to develop the technology to evacuate Earth? We've been here for such a short period of time, it's truly mind-boggling to try to imagine what the human race/Earth will be like even in another 200,000 years!

IMHO, we won't need a billion years. In the last 150 years we've experienced an incredible quantum technological leap, landed on the moon with chemical rockets lol and are currently running experiments on the international space station.

Remaining issues are challenging, but we'll find solutions in the next 100 years.

For example:

Fusion propulsion:
In 2016 we'll be starting up the ITER fusion reactor (Cadarache, France), and by then we'll also have the verdict on the other cheap WB7 alternative or the Livermore (NIF) laser fusion tests.

Artificial gravity:
Finding a strategy to help reduce bone mass for long flights is critical.
http://www.space.com/businesstechnology/technology/artificial_gravity_041125.html

In recent years, the idea has started to emerge that a short radius centrifuge contained within a spacecraft may be far more attractive. "You go into it for a workout. You get your G-tolerance buildup for a certain period of time, daily or a few times a week. That started to sound attractive to the engineers," Young said.

International artificial gravity project
A major undertaking in artificial gravity research is being prepared at the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB) at Galveston, overseen by NASA's Johnson Space Center in Houston, Texas.
Starting next year at UTMB, a corps of individuals will partake in bed rest studies that reproduce the effects of weightlessness, with half that group also rotated once a day on a centrifuge.

Radiation shielding technologies:
http://www.nanotech-now.com/news.cgi?story_id=32013

Demron is a lead-free, toxin-free and PVC-free material that allows heat dissipation and resists chemical penetration and cracks. Made of liquid metal, Demron nuclear protection fabrics feel cool and, unlike traditional nuclear suits, they're lightweight, flexible and foldable. Demron has proved to block gamma rays, X-rays and other nuclear emissions by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, part of the National Nuclear Security Administration within the U.S. Department of Energy, the Georgia Institute of Technology and the Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons. Demron is currently deployed worldwide by NATO, NASA, the National Guard, US Navy, UAE and the governments of South Korea, China, Saudi Arabia and Australia, among others. Scientists have selected it for thermo-mechanical suits for future space travel.

50 years sounds about right.

 

[jpw.in.wi]

... and the environment, that "dead" thing in which we live, will also have it's say regarding our evolution.

Man are you right about that!!!!! Society's GOT to get moving on environmental issues!!!!!

Oh, that's right, there is no such thing as evolution, it's all about DOG™ and his will. Or something...

LOL!!!! *(Deep breath in ....)

​

 

[AnnetteMarie]

We can't predict what this species will look like in a few hundred years, much less thousands of years, or millions. Technology will continue to be incorporated into the human body in ways that we can't imagine ...

dB

and that brings us to Zager and Evans' "In the Year 2525"...

 

[Trajanus]

If we can agree that UFO's represent technology of some sort then that technology can fail. I don't care if that technology comes from outerspace, planet core, dimension X, or the future. There has never been nor ever will be a perfect technology. I have never found he "if they are (insert origin theory here) then their technology would be so superior that it would never crash and we could never shoot it down!" argument to be realistic regardless of the origin. Especially if dealing with radically different opposing technologies. If "they" have super advanced technology then that technology would be ridiculously complex. As we can tell from our own experiences with our own technology, with every degree of complexity there are 2 or 3 degrees of things that can go wrong. Why oh why would we assume "they" are flawless?

I don't think we can assume either view. It's possible that alien materials are much tougher. Add to that more modern sensors etc so who knows?

 

[David Biedny]

Sigh...

ANY complex system, be it biological, technological, natural, artificial, EVERY system will eventually suffer decay and breakdown, no exceptions. Anyone who wants to debate this point will be proven dead wrong. To assume that an advanced technology is somehow infallible is folly, and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of systemic design fundamentals and process. The more complex a technology, the more prone it is to failure over time. That's the way it rolls, regardless of perception or prejudice.

dB

 

[Ezechiel]

Sigh...

ANY complex system, be it biological, technological, natural, artificial, EVERY system will eventually suffer decay and breakdown, no exceptions. Anyone who wants to debate this point will be proven dead wrong. To assume that an advanced technology is somehow infallible is folly, and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of systemic design fundamentals and process. The more complex a technology, the more prone it is to failure over time. That's the way it rolls, regardless of perception or prejudice.

dB

That's a given.. and knowing that, I have a real hard time understanding why an alien race visiting us would not take extreme precaution when entering the foreign air space of a technological civilization.

The dangers of reverse engineering and tech transfer to an foreign culture would be a prime concern you would think. Recovery strategies or total self-destruction would make sense.

IMHO, the crash of an alien vessel followed by a recovery by us points to something like my initial premise.

 

[Ron Collins]

That's a given.. and knowing that, I have a real hard time understanding why an alien race visiting us would not take extreme precaution when entering the foreign air space of a technological civilization.

Who says "they" (whatever from wherever) do not take extreme precaution. But the "unexpected" is aptly named. Prepare for every scenario you can imagine and bad shit can (and often does) still happen. This is a technologists insight. Tech will break at the most inoportune moments and it takes time to figure out why and under what circumstance the malfunction occurred. Then it takes more time to modify a design and implement it. IF we had recovered multiple craft in a relatively short timeframe, I think that this cycle could account for it. But, that is a BIG IF.

The dangers of reverse engineering and tech transfer to an foreign culture would be a prime concern you would think. Recovery strategies or total self-destruction would make sense.

OR perhaps one of the following.

1 -- It is more interesting to monitor what we do with the technlogy and how our problem solving abilites work. If they could monitor that, it would provide amazingly diverse assessment material.
2 -- Accidentally leave a chimpanzee a laptop. He isn't exaclty gonna be able to hack NORAD. So what is the differnce?
3 -- Self destruct or a recovery raid might send a bad message. They seem to enjoy stealth whenever possible.

IMHO, the crash of an alien vessel followed by a recovery by us points to something like my initial premise.

The technology would most likely have evolved from different concepts and solutions than our current understanding could interpret. I think you are seriously overestimating what humans are capable of in this regard.

Humans from 400 years ago could pick up peices of a crashed jet fighter. They might even recognize it as something that flys in the air. Yet, they could do absolutely nothing with it. Sure they might be able to apply science and define its properties as they understood them, but that is not reverse engineering. Reverse engineering any technology of large scale is a monumental task even if you understand 95% of the technology used in the original construction. Reverse engineering "alien" technology, in my opinion, is impossible.

Now, I dont think that it is out of the realm of possibility that scientists could closely examine said technology and gain insights. IF we have recovered some of this technology then I would imagine that is the best we can hope for. That being the case, it probably woud cause "them" a bit of consternation but in the long run it aint that big a deal. especially considering how open and honest about it we seem to be with one another.

 

[Trajanus]

IMHO, the crash of an alien vessel followed by a recovery by us points to something like my initial premise.

What is your initial premise?