What World Under Climate Change

[Tyger]

This thread is for exploring what the world will be like with Climate Change as a fact.

(It is not for the debate of the science of Climate Change. There are threads a-plenty for that).

Scientists draw conclusions from the science. This thread will be looking at the consequences we will experience stemming from the conclusions of the science. Therefore the science will be explored since the conclusions from the science have a spread of implications.

Hope the thread's purpose and intent is clear.

I look forward to having conversations with those who would like to spin all the possibilities.

What is a Climate Model?

TEXT: "Published on Nov 7, 2014"

 

[Tyger]

Here's a very clear enumeration of the fact that the average temperature of the earth has been steadily rising the last 30 years. The theory of Global Warming (AGW) predicted this and we now have a 30 year record indicating as much. The theory now predicts more of the same in the next 30 years. With sea level rise now in process of occurring, we have serious infrastructure issues we need to plan for.

As I have often mentioned, regardless of one's opinion on the matter, civic leaders in areas being impacted are being forced to plan for the changes occurring. Will the Polar Vortex be a yearly event now? We don't know. We can only wait and see, but if the pattern continues, it will shift plant life and agriculture and populations and economics. It's complicated.

Let’s Call It: 30 Years Of Above Average Temperatures Means The Climate Has Changed
February 26, 2015 | by Richard B Rood
LINK: Let’s Call It: 30 Years Of Above Average Temperatures Means The Climate Has Changed | IFLScience

TEXT: "If you’re younger than 30, you’ve never experienced a month in which the average surface temperature of the Earth was below average. Each month, the US National Climatic Data Center calculates Earth’s average surface temperature using temperature measurements that cover the Earth’s surface. Then, another average is calculated for each month of the year for the twentieth century, 1901-2000. For each month, this gives one number representative of the entire century. Subtract this overall 1900s monthly average – which for February is 53.9F (12.1C) – from each individual month’s temperature and you’ve got the anomaly: that is, the difference from the average.

"The last month that was at or below that 1900s average was February 1985. Ronald Reagan had just started his second presidential term and Foreigner had the number one single with “I want to know what love is.”

"These temperature observations make it clear the new normal will be systematically rising temperatures, not the stability of the last 100 years. The traditional definition of climate is the 30-year average of weather. The fact that – once the official records are in for February 2015 – it will have been 30 years since a month was below average is an important measure that the climate has changed. [see graphic in link at this point in article]

[...]

"You can interpret variability over land as the driver of the ups and downs seen in the global graph. There are four years from 1976 onwards when the land was below average; the last time the land temperature was cool enough for the globe to be at or below average was February 1985. The flirtation with below-average temps was tiny – primarily worth noting in the spirit of accurate record keeping. Looking at any of these graphs, it’s obvious that earlier times were cooler and more recent times are warmer. None of the fluctuations over land since 1976 provide evidence contrary to the observation that the Earth is warming.

"Some of the most convincing evidence that the Earth is warming is actually found in measures of the heat stored in the oceans and the melting of ice. However, we often focus on the surface air temperature. One reason for that is that we feel the surface air temperature; therefore, we have intuition about the importance of hot and cold surface temperatures. Another reason is historical; we have often thought of climate as the average of weather. We’ve been taking temperature observations for weather for a long time; it is a robust and essential observation. [see graphic in link at this point in article]

[...]

"We live at a time when the Earth is definitively warming. And we know why: predominately, the increase of greenhouse gas warming due to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Under current conditions, we should expect the planet to be warming. What would be more important news would be if we had a year, even a month, that was below average.

"The variability we observe in surface temperature comes primarily from understood patterns of weather. Many have heard of El Niño, when the eastern Pacific Ocean is warmer than average. The eastern Pacific is so large that when it is warmer than average, the entire planet is likely to be warmer than average. As we look at averages, 30 years, 10 years, or even one year, these patterns, some years warmer, some cooler, become less prominent. The trend of warming is large enough to mask the variability. The fact that there have been 30 years with no month below the 20th century average is a definitive statement that climate has changed.

"There are other reasons that this 30-year span of time is important. Thirty years is a length of time in which people plan. This includes personal choices – where to live, what job to take, how to plan for retirement. There are institutional choices – building bridges, building factories and power plants, urban flood management. There are resource management questions – assuring water supply for people, ecosystems, energy production and agriculture. There are many questions concerning how to build the fortifications and plan the migrations that sea-level rise will demand. Thirty years is long enough to be convincing that the climate is changing, and short enough that we can conceive, both individually and collectively, what the future might hold.

"Finally, 30 years is long enough to educate us. We have 30 years during which we can see what challenges a changing climate brings us. Thirty years that are informing us about the next 30 years, which will be warmer still. This is a temperature record that makes it clear that the new normal will be systematically rising temperatures, not the ups and downs of the last 100 years.

"Those who are under 30 years old have not experienced the climate I grew up with. In thirty more years, those born today will also be living in a climate that, by fundamental measures, will be different than the climate of their birth. Future success will rely on understanding that the climate in which we are all now living is changing and will continue to change with accumulating consequences."

Article originally appeared here: Let's call it: 30 years of above average temperatures means the climate has changed

 

[Tyger]

I thank Gene for this link -

Sea Levels Along The Northeast Rose Almost 4 Inches In Just 2 Years: Study
Posted: 02/25/2015 Updated: 02/27/2015
LINK: Sea Levels Along The Northeast Rose Almost 4 Inches In Just 2 Years: Study

TEXT: "Sea levels across the Northeast coast of the United States rose nearly 3.9 inches between 2009 and 2010, according to a new study from researchers at the University of Arizona and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The waters near Portland, Maine, saw an even greater rise -- 5 inches -- over the two-year period.

"While scientists have been observing higher sea levels across the globe in recent decades, the study found a much more extreme rise than previous averages. Such an event is "unprecedented" in the history of the tide gauge record, according to the researchers, and represents a 1-in-850 year event. "Unlike storm surge, this event caused persistent and widespread coastal flooding even without apparent weather processes," the study's authors wrote. "In terms of beach erosion, the impact of the 2009-2010 [sea level rise] event is almost as significant as some hurricane events."

"The analysis relied on data from dozens of tide gauges along the eastern seaboard. The nearly 4-inch rise for the Northeast represents the average of 14 tide gauges located between New York and Canada. Tide gauges farther south in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast indicated a sea level rise far less extreme in 2009 and closer to average in some areas. The jump occurred most quickly between April 2009 and March 2010.

"The study found that the increase in the Northeast was caused by a 30 percent slowdown in a major ocean current system known as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and a fluctuation in atmospheric pressure at sea level. The Gulf Steam is one component of the AMOC, which moves warm water northward in the upper levels of the Atlantic.

"A 2014 study of the AMOC over that period found the slowdown also contributed to severe winter conditions in northwestern Europe and the intensity of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which was the third-most active on record.

"The U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate wrote in its latest report that AMOC currents are "very likely" to weaken in the 21st century. Models project that unusual rises in sea level, like that observed in the study, will be bigger and more frequent along the Northeastern seaboard this century, study coauthor Jianjun Yin told The Huffington Post. And events like the one observed in the study, combined with ongoing global sea level rise, "will pose an even higher coastal flooding risk," Yin told Mashable.

"A 2012 study determined that sea levels between North Carolina and Boston are rising at a rate three to four times faster than the global average. Yet this only represents a rise of 2 to 3.7 millimeters per year since 1980, far less than the 100 millimeters observed in the Northeast between 2009 and 2010.

"This week's study, published in Nature Communications, follows a new report from the New York City Panel on Climate Change that warns of significant sea level rise and coastal flooding threats for the city in coming decades. Sea levels in New York City have already risen more than a foot since 1900, and the trend is very likely to accelerate: If greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are not curtailed, the panel projects seas to rise by an additional 11 to 21 inches by the middle of the century, by 18 to 39 inches by the 2080s, and by as much as 6 feet by the end of the century."

 

[Tyger]

STATUS of Thread's Information

So far on this thread - the stated fact is that there has been warming over the past 30 years. The climate has, and is, altering. The climate from 30 years ago - 1985 - is not the climate we are now experiencing.

The stated prediction is that the warming will continue for another 30 years, and that the climate in 2045, will not be what we are experiencing now.

Stated as fact is that there has been a 4 inch sea rise on the northeast coast of the United States in just 2 years.

 

[Tyger]

Here is a brief snippet: one of the prognostications made by climate change analysts in past years has always been that changing climate would be one of the stressors impacting wars starting up. Well, here is the first outright statement to that effect -

War...brought to you by climate change

TEXT: "Published on Mar 4, 2015: Scientists are now arguing that climate change and a severe drought may have played a role in the 2011 Syrian uprising and subsequent civil war."

 

[Tyger]

INVASIVES ON ICE: This winter’s deep freeze is turning the Great Lakes into a giant ice rink
LINK: This winter’s deep freeze is turning the Great Lakes into a giant ice rink

TEXT: "The largest surface freshwater ecosystem in the world is frozen. Since Monday the surface of the lakes that spell “HOMES” (you know, for Huron, Ontario, Michigan, Erie, and Superior) has been84 percent popsicle. As frosty air continues to blow in from the north, the Great Lakes may even close in on last year’s max of 92.5 percent ice cover (just below 1979's record of 94.7 percent). And that's great news! No, seriously. This kind of freeze over means good things for the lakes' water level and invasive species problems.

"Before last winter, when polar vortex after polar vortex dipped into the Midwest (and beyond), lake levels had been decreasing, thanks to climate change and drops in rainfall. But extensive ice coverage in the winterleads to less overall evaporation for the lakes throughout the year. Ice along the shoreline also helps kill off invasive quagga and zebra mussels. In the words of Mr. Freeze, "Revenge is a dish best served cold." "

 

[Tyger]

UNCHARTED WATERS: Sardines and anchovies are taking to new waters in response to climate change.
LINK: Sardines and anchovies are taking to new waters in response to climate change

TEXT: "Sardines are on the move. Anchovies and mackerel, too. And it’s not for some hijinks-filled, forage-fish version of Road Trip. After looking at nearly 50 years of data from 57,870 survey trawls, where scientists scoop up the tiny fish with massive nets, researchers say several forage fish species of the North Sea are disappearing from their old swimming grounds and showing up in new waters. I’ll give you one guess why they’re headed north. That’s right, climate change.

"The study, published in Global Change Biology last month, isn’t the first to show that climate change is spurring migrations, of course. We’ve seen pikas and polar bears surrendering territory and pink sea slugs conquer new shores in search for more suitable homes. But when something happens to forage fish, it sends ripples throughout the entire ocean. Sardines may not have the tastiest reputation among humans (c’mon, Tom Hanks, just eat it already), but they are crucial fixtures in marine food webs.

"In the open ocean, forage fish act as middlemen between microscopic zooplankton and massive predators like whales. Sardines roam the high seas in schools 10 million strong, devouring tiny copepods by the billion. In turn, the silver army is eaten by just about everyone else—from bigger fish to seals to dolphins to humpbacks. Even seabirds get in on the forage frenzy. And when the avian, mammalian, and piscine predators all chow down at once, it makes for one of the most jaw-dropping displays in nature.

"So what happens when these swirling, silver fish balls start playing a game of musical habitats? Ignasi Montero-Serra, the study’s lead author and researcher at the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom, says that’s a tough question to answer. For better or worse, how the redistribution of forage fish will affect the ecosystem (let alone the fishing industry) remains to be seen. Montero-Serra says the research only proves that large changes are occurring as a result of global warming. Whether the repercussions are good, bad, or ugly, there’s no denying that they’re different from what came before.

"With measurements taken from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature databank, Montero-Serra and his colleagues looked at water temperatures in the North Sea from the last half-century or so. They found that the sea has been warming by an average of 0.02 degrees Celsius per year, with some areas showing increases of up to 1.3 degrees. During this time, the North Sea’s fish community also underwent a quantifiable shift. Between 1972 and 2012, Atlantic herring and European sprats declined significantly, while the numbers of Atlantic mackerel and Atlantic horse mackerel, who usually prefer warmer seas, started climbing. At the same time, European pilchards (a.k.a. sardines) and European anchovies began swimming up from the south.

"Scientists don’t know for sure why these shifts occurred, but higher temperatures have been shown in other studies to alter the life cycle of these fish in many curious ways. Montero-Serra says warmer waters can increase the duration of spawning periods and speed juvenile growth rates while decreasing survival rates over winter. They may alsomess with mating locations. And where the big sardine ball goes, predators might follow. In 2012, bluefin tuna were caught in the high latitudes east of Greenland, well outside the species normal range. Another study from 2007 found a “rapid northwards range expansion” for the Balearic shearwater. The study covered in last week's seagull story also illustrates the ways a change in forage fish populations can affect their predators for generations. “These systems are highly dynamic and complex,” says Montero-Serra. “In my opinion, we are still very far from anticipating accurately how they will respond to further warming.”

"In other words, it’s not as simple as a particular fish enjoying a particular temperature and then migrating to find that sweet spot. Every species responds differently based on its unique characteristics, and a fish’s biology is tailor-made to work a certain way at certain temperatures. One tweak in behavior may lead to another, which may lead to another, which may lead to a tiny silver fish (and a few million of its friends) swimming toward strange new seas."

 

[Tyger]

CO2 Levels for February Eclipsed Prehistoric Highs
Global warming is headed back to the future as the CO2 level reaches a new high
March 5, 2015 |By David Biello
LINK: CO2 Levels for February Eclipsed Prehistoric Highs - Scientific American

TEXT: "February is one of the first months since before months had names to boast carbon dioxide concentrations at 400 parts per million. Such CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have likely not been seen since at least the end of the Oligocene 23 million years ago, an 11-million-year-long epoch of gradual climate cooling that most likely saw CO2 concentrations drop from more than 1,000 ppm. Those of us alive today breathe air never tasted by any of our ancestors in the entire Homo genus.

"Homo sapiens sapiens—that’s us—has subsisted for at least 200,000 years on a planet that has oscillated between 170 and 280 ppm, according to records preserved in air bubbles trapped in ice. Now our species has burned enough fossil fuels and cut down enough trees to push CO2 to 400 ppm—and soon beyond. Concentrations rise by more than two ppm per year now. Raising atmospheric concentrations of CO2 to 0.04 percent may not seem like much but it has been enough to raise the world's annual average temperature by a total of 0.8 degree Celsius so far. More warming is in store, thanks to the lag between CO2 emissions and the extra heat each molecule will trap over time, an ever-thickening blanket wrapped around the planet in effect. Partially as a result of this atmospheric change, scientists have proposed that the world has entered a new geologic epoch, dubbed the Anthropocene and marked by this climate shift, among other indicators.

"We aren't done yet. Greater concentrations will be achieved, thanks to all the existing coal-fired power plants, more than a billion cars powered by internal combustion on the roads today and yet more clearing of forests. That's despite an avowed goal to stop at 450 ppm, the number broadly (if infirmly) linked to an average temperature rise of no more than 2 degrees C. More likely, by century's end enough CO2 will have been spewed from burning long-buried stores of fossilized sunshine to raise concentrations to 550 ppm or more, enough to raise average annual temperatures by as much as 6 degrees C in the same span. That may be more climate change than human civilization can handle, along with many of the other animals and plants living on Earth, already stressed by other human encroachments. The planet will be fine though; scientists have surmised from long-term records in rock that Earth has seen levels beyond 1,000 ppm in the past.

"The current high levels of CO2 have spurred calls, most recently from the National Academy of Sciences, to develop technologies to retrieve carbon from the atmosphere. The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change relies for that on growing plants, burning them instead of coal to produce electricity, capturing the resulting CO2 in the smokestack and burying it—or in the argot: BECCS, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, a few examples of which are scattered around the globe. Other schemes range from artificial trees to scour the skies of excess CO2 to fertilizing the oceans with iron and having diatoms do the invisible work for us.

"Climate change is inevitable and, if history is any guide to what can be expected, so, too, may be regime change. A few years of diminished rainfall and attendant bad harvests have been enough in the past to fell empires, such as in Mesopotamia or China. The world's current roster of nations struggles to hash out a global plan to cut the pollution that causes climate change, which currently stands at 90 pages of negotiating text. In addition, one nation has submitted its individual plan (or "individual nationally determined contribution," INDC in the argot) to accomplish this feat—Switzerland.

"The plans of China, the European Union and the U.S. are already broadly known, if not formally submitted. Together, they are both the biggest steps ever taken to address global warming and likely insufficient to prevent too much climate change, scientific analyses suggest. The E.U., U.S. and China remain reliant on fossil fuels and the world is slow to change that habit thus far. In fact, China has become the world's largest polluter and millions of Chinese have lifted themselves out of poverty with the power from burning more and more coal, a trick India hopes to follow in the near future.

"For the Swiss, the bulk of pollution comes from driving cars and controlling the climate inside buildings. Their long-term plan is "to reduce per capita emissions to one–1.5 tonnes CO2-equivalent," the INDC states. "These unavoidable emissions will have to be eventually compensated through sinks or removals." In a world that spews more and more CO2 but needs to get to below zero emissions, bring on those sinks and removals. In the meantime the sawtooth record of rising atmospheric CO2 levels moves ever upward and March 2015 will likely be the name of the next month to boast levels above 400 ppm."

 

[Tyger]

Projecting Future Climate

TEXT: "Published on Nov 7, 2014"

 

[Tyger]

For those interested in really studying the science, this is invaluable.

CLIMATE INSIGHTS 101 TRAILER

TEXT: "Published on Feb 24, 2015"

 

[Tyger]

Addressed are particulate matter and the ceasing of coal burning having a short-term albedo (cooling) effect. CO2 is long term. The IPCC includes cooling effect from particulate matter in it's calculations. They do scenarios with CO2 at 450 parts per million in two decades - that puts us at 2035 (2'C or 3.5'F).

At 6:30 the question is asked: is 2'C - which we are halfway through - a science number or a political number? Answer is: it is a little of both. No one has an absolute number that spells catastrophe. What we have are multiple tipping points. One example is the indications that we are losing the west antarctic ice sheet - we can't stop it from happening. There is enough warming in the oceans now that it seems the ice sheets are melting from below, from underneath the sheets.

Speculation is that we may have locked in enough warming to give us a 10 foot sea level rise - such would take many centuries to happen and we could adapt to it over centuries.

Dr. Michael Mann on Historic Climate Deal

TEXT: "Published on Nov 13, 2014: Dr. Michael Mann, Penn State University / The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars joins Thom Hartmann. Republicans are already threatening to gut the EPA as soon as they officially take over control of the Senate in January. When did the Republican Party become the party of Big Polluters? Just how important is this deal? What are the specifics of it?"

 

[Tyger]

More of this will start to show up - ideas on how to absorb the excess CO2.

OLIVINE: CARBON EATER?
A simple rock is being put forth as the solution to global warming.
LINK: Can a simple rock reverse global warming?

TEXT: "Olivine (n.): a magnesium-iron silicate that absorbs carbon dioxide from the air.
Humans have been trying to save beaches for decades. But the situation could soon turn on its head: Someday, beaches may save us. Did I just blow your mind? A small group of geochemists in northern Europe is convinced that the solution to climate change—or at least part of the solution—is to use natural substances to absorb the carbon dioxide we've already emitted into the atmosphere. There are several minerals capable of this feat, but the one gaining the most attention is olivine. It’s a magnesium-containing crystal found in igneous rocks. One pound of the stuff can absorb as much as one pound of carbon dioxide from the air, under ideal circumstances.

"That last bit—the part about ideal circumstances—is the teensy-weensy problem. For olivine to work its magic most efficiently, it has to be broken into small bits. The more surface area exposed to the air, the faster carbon dioxide can be absorbed. Unfortunately, naturally occurring olivine isn’t always broken into small granules, which means we’d have to crush it. And breaking rocks takes a tremendous amount of energy. As long as we’re not going to bring back the chain-gang system of the early 20th century, we would have to burn fossil fuels, to grind up the rocks, to absorb the carbon from the fossil fuels we burned. In other words, we’d be running to stand still. (By the way, the state of Alabama ordered inmates to break rocks as recently as 1995, even though the state had no use for broken rocks. It’s not relevant to olivine or climate change—I just thought you’d be interested.)

"Transportation would also be an issue. Offsetting even a third of global carbon emissions would require five gigatonnes of olivine granules. (That’s a five with nine zeroes.) It can’t just sit in a pile next to the olivine-crushing plant—we’d have to spread it over all the world’s beaches, agricultural fields, sandboxes, etc. How would we move all that olivine? In trucks that burn fossil fuels. Uh oh.

"Left alone, olivine granules form a crust that blocks CO2 absorption, so they must be constantly agitated to keep absorbing carbon dioxide. That’s why sandboxes and farms are good places—there are often people and machinery passing through and moving the olivine around. When spread across a beach, olivine spends its days tumbling in the surf. But what about all that dust generated by the crushing process and released from constant agitation in fields and sandboxes—is it bad for human or animal health? If large amounts of olivine get into the oceans, will it be harmful to aquatic ecosystems? There are many more questions to be answered.

"Olivine is an intriguing tool in the fight against climate change, but it’s far behind some other technologies, like solar panels and windmills. Maybe we should start with those. These rocks aren’t going anywhere."

 

[Tyger]

I hadn't heard of this - wish the 2050 weather forecasts were available to view. That would be interesting. [I did find them, linked to in a post below.]

Climate Change Gets Graphic in 2050 Weather Forecasts
By Laura Geggel, Staff Writer | September 24, 2014
LINK: Climate Change Gets Graphic in 2050 Weather Forecasts

TEXT: "To illustrate global warming's possible effects on local weather, 13 nations from around the world created future weather reports in the lead-up to the UN Climate Summit yesterday (Sept. 23, 14) in New York City. In each weather report, meteorologists from countries including the United States, Brazil, Germany and Zambia put together short video forecasts for a day in 2050, predicting how a warming planet may lead to droughts, heavy storms and landslides the world over.

"Though scientists are still not able to link global warming to any single weather event, models and other research have shown that as the world warms, different regions can expect more extreme weather, increased volcanic activity, ocean acidification and even rising pollen counts. Climate change is the "single biggest risk to the global economy today," said leaders at the 2014 Clinton Global Initiative in New York City this week.


8 Ways Global Warming Is Already Changing the World
by Stephanie Pappas, Live Science Contributor | September 07, 2012
LINK: 8 Ways Global Warming Is Already Changing the World

TEXT: "Over the last 100 years, global temperatures have warmed by about 1.33 degrees Fahrenheit (0.74 degrees Celsius) on average. The change may seem minor, but it's happening very quickly — more than half of it since 1979, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Though it can still be difficult to tease out how much climate change plays in any given weather event, changes are occurring. In the spirit of Earth day, here's a look at our marvelous blue marble and the ways people and other living things are responding to global warming.

Moving the military northward
As the Arctic ice opens up, the world turns its attention to the resources below. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, 30 percent of the world's undiscovered natural gas and 13 percent of its undiscovered oil are under this region. As a result, military action in the Arctic is heating up, with the United States, Russia, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Iceland, Sweden and Canada holding talks about regional security and border issues. Several nations, including the U.S., are also drilling troops in the far north, preparing for increased border patrol and disaster response efforts in a busier Arctic.

Altering breeding seasons
As temperatures shift, penguins are shifting their breeding seasons, too. A March 2012 study found that gentoo penguins are adapting more quickly to warmer weather, because they aren't as dependent on sea ice for breeding as other species. It's not just penguins that seem to be responding to climate change. Animal shelters in the U.S. have reported increasing numbers of stray cats and kittens attributed to a longer breeding season for the felines.

High-country changes
Decreased winter snowfall on mountaintops is allowing elk in northern Arizona to forage at higher elevations all winter, contributing to a decline in seasonal plants. Elk have ravaged trees such as maples and aspens, which in turn has led to a decline in songbirds that rely on these trees for habitat.

Altered Thoreau's stomping grounds
The writer Henry David Thoreau once lovingly documented nature in and around Concord, Mass. Reading those diaries today has shown researchers just how much spring has changed in the last century or so. Compared to the late 1800s, the first flowering dates for 43 of the most common plant species in the area have moved forward an average of 10 days. Other plants have simply disappeared, including 15 species of orchids.

Changed high season at national parks
When's the busiest time to see the Grand Canyon? The answer has changed over the decades as spring has started earlier. Peak national park attendance has shifted forward more than four days, on average, since 1979. Today, the highest number of visitors now swarm the Grand Canyon on June 24, compared with July 4 in 1979.

Changing genetics
Even fruit flies are feeling the heat. According to a 2006 study, fruit fly genetic patterns normally seen at hot latitudes are showing up more frequently at higher latitudes. According to the research, the gene patterns of Drosophila subobscura, a common fruit fly, are changing so that populations look about one degree closer in latitude to the equator than they actually are. In other words, genotypes are shifting so that a fly in the Northern Hemisphere has a genome that looks more like a fly 75 to 100 miles (120 to 161 kilometers) south.

Hurting polar bears
Polar bear cubs are struggling to swim increasingly long distances in search of stable sea ice, according to a 2011 study. The rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic is forcing bears to sometimes swim up to more than 12 days at a time, the research found. Cubs of adult bears that had to swim more than 30 miles (48 kilometers) had a 45 percent mortality rate, compared with 18 percent for cubs that had to swim shorter distances.

More mobile species
Species are straying from their native habitats at an unprecedented rate: 11 miles (17.6 km) toward the poles per decade. Areas where temperature is increasing the most show the most straying by native organisms. The Cetti's warbler, for example, has moved north over the last two decades by more than 90 miles (150 km).​

 

[Tyger]

Typically, the US video has some very cool graphics. There is a mention of Edmonton, Canada having very pleasant and cool Autumnal temperatures in the 60's while the US boils on the first day of Autumn.
WMO Weather Report 2050 - USA Weather Channel

TEXT: "Published on Sep 10, 2014: WMO Weather Report 2050 - USA Weather Channel"

WMO Weather Forecast 2050 - Germany

TEXT: "Published on Sep 18, 2014: WMO Weather Forecast 2050 - Germany"

WMO Weather Reports 2050 - France

TEXT: "Published on Dec 1, 2014: WMO Weather Reports 2050 - France"

This one has a substantial section in English that addresses current climate changes in Iceland.
WMO Weather Report 2050 - Iceland

You can see other 2050 weather reports on YouTube if you search using "WMO Weather Report 2050".

 

[Tyger]

WELL, LOOK WHO IT IS: El Niño finally showed up—and he’s not going to be doing us any favors.
LINK: El Niño finally showed up—and he’s not going to be doing us any favors

TEXT: "The El Niño event forecasters began warning of a year ago has finally arrived, albeit fashionably late. Characterized by unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific, an El Niño can bring about global weather changes. But the current one is so weak and ill-timed, it probably won’t offer its usual full menu of disruptions. For example, it’s unlikely to bring the drought-crippled West any wet relief.

"The weather pattern may, however, make 2015 another record-breaker, especially if it sticks around through the dog days of summer (there’s a 50 percent to 60 percent chance for that, says NOAA). El Niño literally brings the heat—pushing our already warming global temperatures a little further up the thermometer. But as last year—when El Niño was a no-show—proved, we’re doing a mighty good job of burning fossil fuels and making things toasty all by ourselves. "

 

[Tyger]

El Nino Officially Declared for 2015: The climate pattern is here but weak (March 5, 2015)
LINK: El Nino Officially Declared for 2015 - Scientific American

 

[Tyger]

Gear Up for a Scorcher of a Year: El Niño Has Officially Arrived
It’s later than usual and weak, but definitely here
LINK: Gear Up for a Scorcher of a Year: El Niño Has Officially Arrived | Smart News | Smithsonian

 

[Tyger]

Drowning Kiribati By Jeffrey Goldberg November 21, 2013
LINK: Kiribati: Climate Change Destroys Pacific Island Nation - Businessweek

TEXT: "The spruce man with the trim mustache and the grim-faced bodyguard is dozing in his seat. A flight attendant leaves him a hot towel, and then another. The bodyguard, who wears the uniform of the Kiribati National Police—the shoulder patch depicts a yellow frigate bird flying clear of the rising sun—folds the towels carefully and places them on an armrest.

"The Fiji Airways flight is moving north across the equator to Tarawa, the capital of Kiribati. The passengers include a Japanese executive who represents important tuna interests, a Mormon luminary from Samoa and his prim wife, and an American dressed in the manner of an Iraq War contractor, on a mission to recover the remains of U.S. Marines killed in World War II. We are all impatient for the sleeping man, who is the president of Kiribati, to wake up. We each have business to transact with him.

"But the president sleeps. His name is Anote Tong. He is famous—or, at the very least, as famous as anyone from Kiribati has ever been—for arguing that the industrialized nations of the world are murdering his country.

"Kiribati is a flyspeck of a United Nations member state, a collection of 33 islands necklaced across the central Pacific. Thirty-two of the islands are low-lying atolls; the 33rd, called Banaba, is a raised coral island that long ago was strip-mined for its seabird-guano-derived phosphates. If scientists are correct, the ocean will swallow most of Kiribati before the end of the century, and perhaps much sooner than that. Water expands as it warms, and the oceans have lately received colossal quantities of melted ice. A recent study found that the oceans are absorbing heat 15 times faster than they have at any point during the past 10,000 years. Before the rising Pacific drowns these atolls, though, it will infiltrate, and irreversibly poison, their already inadequate supply of fresh water. The apocalypse could come even sooner for Kiribati if violent storms, of the sort that recently destroyed parts of the Philippines, strike its islands.

"For all of these reasons, the 103,000 citizens of Kiribati may soon become refugees, perhaps the first mass movement of people fleeing the consequences of global warming rather than war or famine.

"This is why Tong visits Fiji so frequently. He is searching for a place to move his people. The government of Kiribati (pronounced KIR-e-bass, the local variant of Gilbert, which is what these islands were called under British rule) recently bought 6,000 acres of land in Fiji for a reported $9.6 million, to the apparent consternation of Fiji’s military rulers. Fiji has expressed no interest in absorbing the I-Kiribati, as the country’s people are known. A former president of Zambia, in south-central Africa, once offered Kiribati’s people land in his country, but then he died. No one else so far has volunteered to organize a rescue.

"There is only one way out of Kiribati, and that’s on the twice-weekly flights to Nadi, on Fiji’s main island. Kiribati is so isolated that Tong can only visit his country’s largest atoll, a former nuclear weapons test site called Kiritimati (Christmas), 2,000 miles from Tarawa, by traveling through other countries.

"The sky is cloudless today, and the Pacific spreads out before us. The Japanese executive interrupts the white noise and says, “Big ocean.” He says he hopes to talk to the president about some urgent matter of fishing rights. Kiribati is made up of 310 square miles of land and 1.3 million square miles of ocean. It is the Saudi Arabia of fish, except its leaders have allowed its only lucrative natural resource to be exploited by outsiders, including and especially the factory fleets of Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.

"We begin to descend, though there is nothing but blue below us. Tong stirs. I move to introduce myself, but the Mormon luminary, a man named O. Vincent Haleck, gets there first.

"Haleck is a former chief executive of a tropical beverage distributor in Samoa and a member of the Mormon Church’s Second Quorum of the Seventy, which makes him a very important Mormon in this stretch of the Pacific. He supervises the church’s school system in Kiribati, which provides discounted tuition to parents who allow their children to be converted. The Mormons are in a battle for the souls of the I-Kiribati. Tong, who was educated by Catholic missionaries, smiles politely as Haleck describes the good deeds of his church. I catch only fragments of conversation: “water tanks,” “computer lab,” “Jesus Christ,” and something about a visit to Salt Lake City."​

 

[Tyger]

Losing Your Country: Penelise Alofa and the Drowning of Kiribas

TEXT: "Published on Mar 9, 2015: Penelise Alofa, of the Kiribati Islands, describes how she is losing her country as it is slowly submerged by sea level rise. How can a person face such a fate? How can others understand how it would feel to have their ancestral home gone?"

KIRIBATI - THE SINKING ISLANDS

TEXT: "Published on Dec 13, 2014: Imagine living on an low lying atoll and worrying whether the next high tide will destroy your home? Or being unable to prepare for your future, engage in business or invest in your country because there may not be a tomorrow.? Well these are the realities people of Kiribati face everyday. Talk Business catches up with the man who tries to put these fears to rest for his people, fighting an uphill battle against climate change and those responsible for his sinking islands."

 

[Tyger]

This is more about history - always enlightening - especially this: ""It takes decades for people to accept that the state perhaps has a role in how they manage their household, how they manage their rubbish, their toilet facilities even," Lee says. "The state basically does intervene [...] "

'Dirty Old London': A History Of The Victorians' Infamous Filth
MARCH 12, 2015
LINK: 'Dirty Old London': A History Of The Victorians' Infamous Filth : NPR

TEXT: "In the 19th century, London was the capital of the largest empire the world had ever known — and it was infamously filthy. It had choking, sooty fogs; the Thames River was thick with human sewage; and the streets were covered with mud. But according to Lee Jackson, author of Dirty Old London: The Victorian Fight Against Filth, mud was actually a euphemism. "It was essentially composed of horse dung," he tells Fresh Air's Sam Briger. "There were tens of thousands of working horses in London [with] inevitable consequences for the streets. And the Victorians never really found an effective way of removing that, unfortunately."

"In fact, by the 1890s, there were approximately 300,000 horses and 1,000 tons of dung a day in London. What the Victorians did, Lee says, was employ boys ages 12 to 14 to dodge between the traffic and try to scoop up the excrement as soon as it hit the streets. "It was an immense and impossible challenge," Lee says. To the public health-minded Victorian, London presented an overwhelming reform challenge. But there wasn't change until the city took over. "It takes decades for people to accept that the state perhaps has a role in how they manage their household, how they manage their rubbish, their toilet facilities even," Lee says. "The state basically does intervene and it is that idea of a central authority that is actively concerned — what the Victorians would've called 'municipal socialism.' ... That mission to improve people's lives on a very day-to-day basis was carried on throughout the 20th century.

"On what it was like to walk around Victorian London
"The first thing you'd notice if you stepped out onto the streets would be the mud that lined the carriage ways, but of course it wasn't really mud. The air itself was generally filled with soot and smoke. It was famously said of the sheep in Regent's Park — there were still grazing sheep in Regent's Park in the mid-Victorian period — that you could tell how long they'd been in the capital by how dirty their coats were. They [went] increasingly from white to black over a period of days.

"If you were a respectable person, you had to wash your face and hands several times during the day to make sure that you looked half decent. ... You had the stench from blocked drains and cesspools below houses. It wasn't really a pleasant experience.

"On the horse dung and urine on the streets
"Urine, of course ... soaked the streets. There was an experiment in Piccadilly with wood paving in the midcentury and it was abandoned after a few weeks because the sheer smell of ammonia that was coming from the pavement was just impossible. Also the shopkeepers nearby said that this ammonia was actually discoloring their shop fronts as well.

"On cesspools and the first water closets
"This is the thing that's often forgotten: that London at the start of the 19th century, it was basically filled with these cesspools. There'd be brick chambers ... they'd be maybe 6 feet deep, about 4 [feet] wide and every house would have them. They'd be ideally in the back garden away from the house, but equally in central London and more crowded areas it was more common to have a cesspool in the basement. ... And above the cesspool would be where your household privy would be. And that was basically your sanitary facilities, for want of a better term.

"That actually worked quite well for a little while, but then people got very interested in this new invention — the water closet. And it's often ignored that the water closets were initially connected to these cesspools, not the sewer system that existed in the start of the century — that was just for rainwater. So you get water closets coming in and they're connected to cesspools and they don't really fit because of the extra large volume of flushing water. You get these surges of waste and dump and smell, and people start getting very concerned about what's in their cesspools because of the stink that's rising from them. ...

"The idea that this sort of stench is coming into the house, seeping through the house and possibly bringing in diseases like cholera or typhoid ... is actually one of the great driving forces of sanitary reform in the 19th century.

"On how cesspools were built and emptied
"Cesspools were built to be porous so the liquid part of the waste was meant to seep away into the ground. There was no knowledge of bacteriological contamination, although there was plenty of it happening. Nevertheless, you had this residue of solid matter left and it was removed by so-called "night soil men." This wasn't a full-time job for people; there were often dustmen or laborers or bricklayers who made a little extra money on the side and they would come in the middle of the night to your home. And it was by law in the night because the stench of venting a cesspool was considered too disturbing during the day. And they would unfortunately have to [climb] down into the pit, shovel out the muck and get it into a wicker basket, get it into a cart. And at the start of the century, that was actually reasonably productive labor because the cart could then be taken out to the countryside and the manure could be sold to farmers.

"On the first public toilets
"It's often said that the first public toilets were at the Great Exhibition, which was the first world expo held in Hyde Park [in 1851]. It had 6 million visitors in a matter of months and there were indeed public toilets set up in the exhibition. But there was a great debate after that closed as to whether London needed such facilities actually on the street. It was tied up with notions of shame and respectability and it was particularly said that women would be just too embarrassed to enter a public toilet on the public street.

"On personal hygiene for the lower class
"There were a few parish pumps that you could freely use if you could get to them, but you have people cramped in tenement accommodations ... in London. And ... how many buckets of water, even if you had the buckets, could you carry up to, say, a fourth-floor tenement? ... If you were poor, your basic water supply — which would do for washing, for cooking, for cleaning, for laundry — often it was from a standpipe provided by your landlord. And that water supply would be turned on for something like two to three hours per week. There were literally crowds of people queuing and fighting at these standpipes in the slums of London. And if you wanted to wash, then you had virtually no options. So the poor working men would actually go anywhere where there was a river, a canal or a lake and strip off and try and bathe.

"On how things improved
"The Victorians did achieve something: They built the famous great sewer network of the mid-19th century. [It was] built by Joseph Bazalgette, a renowned civil engineer, and that did achieve a lot. It basically took away the possibility of wholesale cholera epidemics in the city, typhus and typhoid — they all were reduced. But basically it's only until the end of the 19th century and into the 20th century that you get a sort of an effective central authority for London that you actually start to see change."



The above is from an interview on NPR regarding the below book -

Excerpt: Dirty Old London
LINK: Dirty Old London : NPR