Why I strongly lean toward the ETH

[AdamI]

Given that this is a major question explored on the Paracast, I thought I'd toss in my two cents. FYI, my background is in biology and computer science and I also studied quite a bit of physics and math.

I still think that if this phenomenon is at all a phenomenon resulting from another intelligence, the most likely ultimate source for that intelligence is a planet (or moon) in another solar system. It's not the only possibility, but it's the one that seems by far to be the most likely possibility.

So let me summarize the reasons that I think this:

1) There is no other place that we know to exist that is big enough to support another major race of sentient beings, especially with anything resembling industrial technology.

We do not know that other dimensions exist. When physicists talk about other dimensions, what they are often really referring to is additional degrees of freedom in theoretical mathematical constructs. Beyond this, they are speculating.

What do I mean? Take the simple equation f(x,y) = x + y. That equation has two degrees of freedom-- two variables that can be varied-- and therefore defines a two dimensional object in a two dimensional space. The equation f(x,y,z) = x + y + z is three dimensional, and f(x,y,z,q) = x + y + z + q is four dimensional.

Now consider another example. Let's say that I have some water that I heat to exactly 100 degrees centigrade at 5:00pm in my kitchen. The coordinates of this "event" could be expressed mathematically as coordinates in a five dimensional cartesian space: X, Y, Z, T, K. X, Y, and Z describe the location of my kitchen relative to say, the center of the Earth. T is time and K is temperature which mathematically we could easily treat as another coordinate if we feel like it.

Thus mathematically the "state of the water in my kitchen" can be expressed with five degrees of freedom, and it would be possible to plot a five dimensional hyperspace of this. This does not mean my kitchen is five-dimensional, or that there are infinitely many real kitchens in existence. It's a mathematical construct.

So when physicists talk about other dimensions, what they are usually referring to is additional degrees of freedom in theoretical equations that seem to describe physical reality well. However, they do not know what these additional degrees of freedom refer to. They could refer to additional spatial dimensions, but they could also refer to other properties of matter or energy that are not presently understood. They could also be pure mathematical constructs such as the imaginary component of the square root of a negative number.

I don't buy the other potential "local" sources either. I am willing to believe that there are lots of species-- even maybe big ones-- that live on Earth that we do not know much about. But I think the idea of a parallel coexisting advanced technological sentient species really strains credulity. I find it really hard to imagine any scenario where someone else could be mining, manufacturing, etc. and we would not notice. Such activities are large and obnoxious and very hard to hide.

So the only thing left to avoid the ETH seems to be to go supernatural. There's a simple reason science never deals with the supernatural as a proposed explanation for anything. The reason is that it's a dead end. When you say something is supernatural, you're done. Supernatural implies the impossibility of rational understanding. So if they're supernatural, we might as well all just give up and go home.

But space? We know for an absolute fact that it exists and that it's absolutely freaking huge. Even our solar system is so big that we have a hard time wrapping our brains around it, let alone our galaxy. That's why we call it space... there's plenty of space for all kinds of things.

2) "High strangeness" is not in any way exclusive with the ETH.

Anyone with the technology to travel interstellar distances is probably going to have abilities that seem to us like magic. Interaction with them is going to be intensely bizarre, both because they would be cognitively alien and because they would be so far beyond us in technical capability.

Who knows how or with whom they would try to communicate, or even if their communicative attempts would be immediately recognized by us as such. They might not even realize immediately who the intelligences were on Earth, given that upon arrival they would know nothing about our biosphere.

I think that we still tend to anthropomorphisize our aliens, and so we really don't grasp (and maybe are not even capable of imagining) just how alien a real alien might be. Their thoughts and actions might be impossible for us to even grasp correctly since their brains might be wired totally differently from ours. How would be a being with a four-lobed brain think? Would there be four sides to every conflict?

They're going to easily seem like gods, spirits, angels, etc. to us and may have abilities that simply make no sense to us... such as the ability to seemingly "disappear" (maybe just by cloaking, which we are close to being able to do!), to influence our minds at a distance, to replicate objects with ease, to project illusions at a distance, and possibly do many other "impossible" things. Our abilities would make no sense to an ancient Roman either.

3) You can get here from there (and there from here)

I've made a few other posts on this subject. Look at the ones about Project Orion.

You do not have to travel "hundreds of thousands of lightyears" or to "another galaxy." The nearest star is Alpha Centauri at about 4.5 light years. It could be reached with conventional propulsion in a human lifetime, and with nuclear propulsion in a shorter period of time.

The idea that interstellar travel is absolutely unthinkable primarily comes from the SETI crowd, and it's not true. Even without any currently unknown physics, interstellar travel is quite thinkable. This is particularly true if you throw away the idea of coming home, at least to the same time that you left.

So to summarize, we have a place that we know for a fact exists with plenty of room and to/from which travel is feasible. So that seems like the most likely source for any other intelligence that we might encounter.

 

[jratcliff]

Agreed, and add to that if you send out robotic probes you can envision much longer time spans. The UFO occupants could easily be biologically engineered automatons. There is also the question of time dilation as you approach the speed of light. To the people on board the craft they might experience a relatively short period of time relative to what is happening relativistically outside the craft. There are no laws of physics problems with a craft approaching the speed of light but there are, of course, some practical engineering issues to consider.

All that said, I don't think UFOs are very likely craft operating within normal constraints of the laws of physics as we understand them today. UFOs are too weird for that, in my opinion.

John

 

[AdamI]

Agreed, and add to that if you send out robotic probes you can envision much longer time spans. The UFO occupants could easily be biologically engineered automatons. There is also the question of time dilation as you approach the speed of light. To the people on board the craft they might experience a relatively short period of time relative to what is happening relativistically outside the craft. There are no laws of physics problems with a craft approaching the speed of light but there are, of course, some practical engineering issues to consider.

All that said, I don't think UFOs are very likely craft operating within normal constraints of the laws of physics as we understand them today. UFOs are too weird for that, in my opinion.

John

I agree about UFO physics. Based on the eyewitness testimony and case reports, these things are doing some stuff that we are not able to explain with current physics. Newton and his contemporaries would have been unable to explain the physics behind solid state computer memory, Li-Ion batteries, radio, LCD flat panel displays, or fluorescent lights.

I think it's entirely possible that our visitors (provided they are here of course) could have the ability to, say, move through solid objects, freely interconvert matter and energy, teleport, "scan and digitize" 3d objects and replicate them at the molecular level, etc. I also think the word "technology" might even be a bit of a misnomer, which I why I avoided it above. I would expect interstellar travelers to have merged technology and biology and become something more like a cybernetic organism. There wouldn't really be a natural/synthetic bio/techno distinction anymore.

My only point in bringing up stuff like Project Orion is to point out that interstellar travel within our stellar neighborhood is possible even without anything beyond currently understood physics. You could do it with nuclear ion drives or pulse propulsion. When the SETI folks say interstellar travel is unthinkable, they're being ignorant even of currently understood Earthly technology.

 

[Trajanus]

I still think that if this phenomenon is at all a phenomenon resulting from another intelligence, the most likely ultimate source for that intelligence is a planet (or moon) in another solar system. It's not the only possibility, but it's the one that seems by far to be the most likely possibility.

Agreed.

I don't buy the other potential "local" sources either. I am willing to believe that there are lots of species-- even maybe big ones-- that live on Earth that we do not know much about.

Not many big ones still unknown. I recall Benton wrote that the process of discovering all mammal, bird etc species is asymptotic but we're pretty "high up the asymptote" with regard to such larger more consipcuous forms, as opposed to say worms or insects.

But I think the idea of a parallel coexisting advanced technological sentient species really strains credulity. I find it really hard to imagine any scenario where someone else could be mining, manufacturing, etc. and we would not notice. Such activities are large and obnoxious and very hard to hide.

Of course and furthermore as I've pointed out, there's nothing in the fossil record which suggests some other intelligence indigenous to Earth was evolving before us.

But space? We know for an absolute fact that it exists and that it's absolutely freaking huge. Even our solar system is so big that we have a hard time wrapping our brains around it, let alone our galaxy. That's why we call it space... there's plenty of space for all kinds of things.

Yes and it's now obvious that planets abound in that space.

Who knows how or with whom they would try to communicate, or even if their communicative attempts would be immediately recognized by us as such.

If you read the literature you'll se that plenty of communication has taken place. IMO "strangeness" is deliberate effort to confuse us, perhaps in pursuit of some ulterior motive.

Their thoughts and actions might be impossible for us to even grasp correctly since their brains might be wired totally differently from ours

I don't know....I think they understand us very well at least.

The idea that interstellar travel is absolutely unthinkable primarily comes from the SETI crowd, and it's not true.

Right.

 

[trainedobserver]

While I have probably always leaned toward the ETH in the past I have of late had my doubts. One thing that just boggles my mind is how in hell would "they" find us? The incredible vastness of space is so incredibly difficult to grasp that I don't think any human being fully comprehends how difficult it would be to find a tiny blue planet like ours in the midst of it. Even a tiny planet emitting radio and tv signals. It seems really strange that we would be found at all much less by a Heinz 57 mix of aliens as some would claim. Doesn't it?

It seems to me it is just as probable that the phenomena's origin is local and presents itself in various and deceptive ways to mask that fact. "Oh yeah, we're from uh, Venus, yeah Venus, no wait ... Andromeda, yeah Andromeda , no wait, wait, we're from your future ... no wait, wait ...uh, we're not from here ok, just go with that for now, we'll get back to you on it."

Maybe its not gods, aliens, or spooky dudes from the future. It seems like it is something a lot stranger than any of that. But I could be wrong.

 

[Trajanus]

While I have probably always leaned toward the ETH in the past I have of late had my doubts. One thing that just boggles my mind is how in hell would "they" find us? The incredible vastness of space is so incredibly difficult to grasp that I don't think any human being fully comprehends how difficult it would be to find a tiny blue planet like ours in the midst of it. Even a tiny planet emitting radio and tv signals. It seems really strange that we would be found at all much less by a Heinz 57 mix of aliens as some would claim. Doesn't it?

It shouldn't be tough for an advanced system. Even we can find hundreds planets and estimate their distances from their stars hence compute surface temperatures, and thus estimate likelihood of habitability. Right now Kepler is scanning thousands of stars. And we're new at this.

It seems to me it is just as probable that the phenomena's origin is local and presents itself in various and deceptive ways to mask that fact. "Oh yeah, we're from uh, Venus, yeah Venus, no wait ... Andromeda, yeah Andromeda , no wait, wait, we're from your future .

Sure they're deceptive. But lies like those appear designed to make it seem implausible that they're from space.

But I could be wrong.

You're probably right about that.

 

[trainedobserver]

It shouldn't be tough for an advanced system.

Those kind of statements really puzzle me. It makes several assumptions that cannot be backed up not the least of which is the assumption human beings can predict what advanced civilizations and thier systems may or may not be like. It's just like saying, "It's magic ... so there."

Even we can find hundreds planets and estimate their distances from their stars hence compute surface temperatures, and thus estimate likelihood of habitability. Right now Kepler is scanning thousands of stars. And we're new at this.

Wow, thousands of stars you say? I don't think I got my point across.

Sure they're deceptive. But lies like those appear designed to make it seem implausible that they're from space.

I don't think it is implausible by any means, the other option just seems more probable and requires fewer assumptions to my thinking. The real answer could be some combination of the two and most likely is neither.

 

[AdamI]

While I have probably always leaned toward the ETH in the past I have of late had my doubts. One thing that just boggles my mind is how in hell would "they" find us?

Easy. They build large space telescope arrays (at home near their own planet) and engage in a prolonged scan of their stellar neighborhood for planets around other stars. When they find those planets, they subject the light reflected from them to mass spectroscopy to determine their makeup.

We are close to embarking on such a project ourselves. It's more or less in the planning phase, and some of it's already up and running. Google "terrestrial planet finder." Here's one site: Planet Quest: Missions - Terrestrial Planet Finder

This planet's reflected light would just scream "biosphere." Its light would show a huge concentration of oxygen in its atmosphere, a corrosive gas that would not be maintained at such an energetically unfavorable concentration by anything other than an active process. A big energy imbalance like that is a dead giveaway for either life or some very rare and interesting geophysical process. You would also see a bunch of carbon and carbon compounds and a huge amount of water, also very interesting and very indicative of the likelihood of life. If your telescopes were very good, you could probably discern dead giveaways for organic chemistry like complex carbon chains.

No human transmissions are needed. It's just physics and chemistry. In a way, Earth has been broadcasting an "active SETI" signal screaming "biosphere! hey! over here!" since at least the advent of photosynthesis billions of years ago.

They wouldn't know there was intelligence, but they'd know there was something really interesting here... interesting enough to send probes. When they got the data back from the probes, they'd know it was really interesting.

The scenario I outline above could have happened a long time ago. While I don't buy the "local sourcing" argument, I do buy the idea that something like a generational ship or like the "valkyrie" sleeper ships in Avatar might have arrived in our solar system a very long time ago and might have... say... founded a permanent base or colony somewhere in our solar system. Unless they were broadcasting a lot of high power radio waves, we would not notice such a thing... especially if it was outside the Earth/Moon/Mars region that we like to explore. It could be close to the sun or out in the outer solar system or asteroid belt somewhere and the only chance we'd have of finding it would be dumb luck.

Maybe they're hanging out here and mostly keeping to themselves in their own colony. Occasionally they pop over and take a look and interact with the life here, perhaps in bizarre ways and with bizarre alien motives that we would have a hard time understanding. Maybe they're waiting for us to get interesting enough to try to have a real conversation. Maybe they're actually mucking around with us for some unknown reason. I don't think we have enough information to do more than speculate in this area.

A lot of people don't really even get how big the solar system is. There could be several such colonies and we'd have no idea. Think of it this way: if the solar system were a beach, we would be living on one rock and would have sent tiny probes to photograph the surface of a few other rocks... mostly at low resolution.

... and of course there's a long history of anomalous large objects being photographed in our solar system, such as the recent images of potentially large objects near the sun. These sorts of images are often ambiguous and could have other explanations, but they're intriguing.

Again, this whole scenario is entirely plausible and requires no unknown physics. That's why I consider it a likely explanation if we really are dealing with an alien intelligence. In science you start with the most likely explanations first, and I see nothing in the UFO evidence (even the high strangeness stuff) that excludes this explanation. If anything, I would expect any interaction with an alien to be "high strange" and would be shocked if it were anything like our sci-fi space opera fantasies or naive anthropomorphic projections. "Take me to your leader" is silly. They might not even have a concept of "leader" as we would understand it.

 

[Trajanus]

It makes several assumptions that cannot be backed up not the least of which is the assumption human beings can predict what advanced civilizations and thier systems may or may not be like.

Undoubtedly they're much more capable by definition. If anything it's risky to underestimate what such a system can do.

Wow, thousands of stars you say?

Well over 100,000. I know--not many compared to the billions out there but it's a start.