Almost half used up mainly in the last century. We could burn up the rest in less than that at current rates of usage.
World Oil Reserves Fell for First Time in 10 Years, BP Says - Bloomberg.com
As oil prices go up, extraction of more difficult sites becomes economically attractive.
Edward L. Morse, an energy official in Carter's State Department,
writes in Foreign Affairs that the world's deep-water oil and gas reserves are significantly larger than was thought a decade ago, and high prices have spurred development of technologies -- a drilling vessel can cost $1 billion -- for extracting them. The costs of developing oil sands -- Canada may contain more oil than Saudi Arabia -- are declining, so projects that last year were not economic with the price of oil under $90 a barrel are now viable with oil at $79 a barrel.
Morse says new technologies are also speeding development of natural gas trapped in U.S. shale rock. The Marcellus Shale, which stretches from West Virginia through Pennsylvania and into New York, "may contain as much natural gas as the North Field in Qatar, the largest field ever discovered."
Rattie says that known U.S. reserves of natural gas, which are sure to become larger, exceed 100 years of supply at the current rate of consumption. BP recently announced a "giant" oil discovery beneath the Gulf of Mexico. Yergin, writing in
Foreign Policy, says "careful examination of the world's resource base . . . indicates that the resource endowment of the planet is sufficient to keep up with demand for decades to come."
The point of the first post was that experts have been prediction the demise of oil for a century or so, and they have been proven wrong over and over again. So BP now says 'proven reserves' have gone down--the same way the government said in 1926. Why should we believe them this time? Next week we'll hear reports of 'the biggest find ever' and off we go again.
Please understand that I still believe we should conserve energy as much as possible. But this is not as much a conservation issue as it is a political one.