Ah, the singularity a-la Kurzwiel. It may happen.
Or of course, then again, it may not.
You see: sufficient flops does not necessitate intelligence. Just because we have sufficient processing capacity to simulate a human brain does not mean that that simulation will become conscious.
The question is a simple one: is consciousness an emergent property of complexity, or not?
I for one think it is, but we have yet to see.
There are also natural limits on growth: like viral populations growing geometrically before hitting their fundamental limits; there are quite clear fundamental limits on computation that have not yet been crossed.
Take, for example, the simple scalability problem in parallel processing. 2 processors working in parallel are not equivalent to doubling one processor working alone. It's slightly less because of overhead. The problem actually grows as you scale out processors in parallel, so adding more hardware doesn't always help computation.
Scalability - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Plus, there's a fundamental heat limit on computation (
Landauer's principle). Reversible computing may or may not help here.
Anyhoo, there are several limiting factors on computation that we have not yet solved. It is true at current growth rates our desktop computer will be able to simulate the human brain.
Whether it can simulate the human brain anywhere approaching real time, or in any meaningful manner, or if processing power will continue to scale in this manner or whether this will lead to artificial intelligence is another matter.
The typical human brain has about 12o billion neurons according to the best estimates we can muster. A good reference for mammals:
My point is that a macaque is not necessarily 10% as smart as a human because it has 10% of the neurons (the hardware). If this were true, whales may be the smartest things on earth. But guess what: in the ways that we think of intelligence, they aren't. My suspicion is that there's some pretty fancy software tricks happening to create sentience.
I'm a fan of Kurzweil, but there's a lot of fundamental handwaving and winking going on.