New World: Climate Change

[Tyger]

Interactive Map to look at temperature changes in various cities in summer -

1001 Blistering Future Summers: An Interactive Map
LINK: Blistering Future Summers for 1,001 U.S. Cities | Climate Central

TEXT: "If it feels hot to you now in the dog days of this summer, imagine a time when summertime Boston starts feeling like Miami and even Montana sizzles. Thanks to climate change, that day is coming by the end of the century, making it harder to avoid simmering temperatures. Summers in most of the U.S. are already warmer than they were in the 1970s. And climate models tell us that summers are going to keep getting hotter as greenhouse gas emissions continue. What will this warming feel like? Our new analysis of future summers illustrates just how dramatic warming is going to be by the end of this century if current emissions trends continue unabated.

"For our Blistering Future Summers interactive we have projected summer high temperatures for the end of this century for 1,001 cities, and then showed which city in the U.S. — or elsewhere in the world, if we couldn’t find one here — is experiencing those temperatures today. We’ve highlighted several striking examples on the interactive, but make sure to explore and find how much hotter summers will likely be in your city.

"By the end of the century, assuming the current emissions trends, Boston’s average summer high temperatures will be more than 10°F hotter than they are now, making it feel as balmy as North Miami Beach is today. Summers in Helena, Mont., will warm by nearly 12°F, making it feel like Riverside, Calif.

"In fact, by the end of this century, summers in most of the 1,001 cities we analyzed will feel like summers now in Texas and Florida (in temperatures only, not humidity). And in Texas, most cities are going to feel like the hottest cities now in the Lone Star State, or will feel more like Phoenix and Gilbert in Arizona, among the hottest summer cities in the U.S. today.

"In some cases, summers will warm so dramatically that their best comparison is to cities in the Middle East. Take Las Vegas, for example. Summer highs there are projected to average a scorching 111°F, which is what summer temperatures are like today in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. And at 114°F°, living in Phoenix will feel like summering in sweltering Kuwait City.

"On average, summer heat is projected to warm 7-10°F, though some cities will have summers 12°F warmer than they are now. As you explore the interactive, you’ll find that for cities in the Northwest, the Great Plains, the Midwest, and the Northeast, warming is best illustrated by a southward shift. In some cases, however, the shift is slightly northward and inland — for example, warming in coastal San Diego will make it feel like Lexington, Ky., — and represents more than a 6°F temperature increase.

"This analysis only accounts for daytime summer heat — the hottest temperatures of the day, on average between June-August — and doesn’t incorporate humidity or dewpoint, both of which contribute to how uncomfortable summer heat can feel. This projected warming also assumes greenhouse gas emissions keep increasing through 2080, just as they have been for the past several decades."

 

[Tyger]

Fracking is Depleting Water Supplies in America's Driest Areas, Report Shows By Suzanne Goldenberg, The Guardian
11 February 15
LINK: Fracking is Depleting Water Supplies in America's Driest Areas, Report Shows

TEXT: "America's oil and gas rush is depleting water supplies in the driest and most drought-prone areas of the country, from Texas to California, new research has found. Of the nearly 40,000 oil and gas wells drilled since 2011, three-quarters were located in areas where water is scarce, and 55% were in areas experiencing drought, the report by the Ceres investor network found.

"Fracking those wells used 97 bn gallons of water, raising new concerns about unforeseen costs of America's energy rush. "Hydraulic fracturing is increasing competitive pressures for water in some of the country's most water-stressed and drought-ridden regions," said Mindy Lubber, president of the Ceres green investors' network. Without new tougher regulations on water use, she warned industry could be on a "collision course" with other water users. "It's a wake-up call," said Prof James Famiglietti, a hydrologist at the University of California, Irvine. "We understand as a country that we need more energy but it is time to have a conversation about what impacts there are, and do our best to try to minimize any damage."

"It can take millions of gallons of fresh water to frack a single well, and much of the drilling is tightly concentrated in areas where water is in chronically short supply, or where there have been multi-year droughts. Half of the 97bn gallons of water was used to frack wells in Texas, which has experienced severe drought for years – and where production is expected to double over the next five years. Farming and cities are still the biggest users of water, the report found. But it warned the added demand for fracking in the Eagle Ford, at the heart of the Texas oil and gas rush, was hitting small, rural communities hard. "Shale producers are having significant impacts at the county level, especially in smaller rural counties with limited water infrastructure capacity," the report said. "With water use requirements for shale producers in the Eagle Ford already high and expected to double in the coming 10 years, these rural counties can expect severe water stress challenges in the years ahead."

Local aquifer levels in the Eagle Ford formation have dropped by up to 300ft over the last few years. A number of small communities in Texas oil and gas country have already run out of water or are in danger of running out of water in days, pushed to the brink by a combination of drought and high demand for water for fracking. Twenty-nine communities across Texas could run out of water in 90 days, according to the Texas commission on environmental quality. Many reservoirs in west Texas are at only 25% capacity. Nearly all of the wells in Colorado (97%) were located in areas where most of the ground and surface water is already stretched between farming and cities, the report said. It said water demand for fracking in the state was expected to double to 6bn gallons by 2015 – or about twice as much as the entire city of Boulder uses in a year.

"In California, where a drought emergency was declared last month, 96% of new oil and gas wells were located in areas where there was already fierce competition for water. The pattern holds for other regions caught up in the oil and gas rush. Most of the wells in New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming were also located in areas of high water stress, the report said."

 

[Tyger]

Plenty of 'markers' for that flow chart @DissectionStalker Also, some very interesting map graphics (interactive maps, too) from the Climate Central site I am currently linking to. As with everything to be approached with a canny eye.

Always factoring in the caveat that 'if trends continue' on the current slope, this is what we will see in 2100 - and the above links definitely show a US, anyway, hotter and more sub-tropical. (I have rounded up all temperatures).

LINK: Blistering Future Summers for 1,001 U.S. Cities | Climate Central
Some of the results from the temperature maps -
In 2100 Chicago, Illinois Summer 93'F like Mesquite, Texas (it's 82'F now)
In 2100 Saint Paul, Minnesota Summer 93'F like Mesquite, Texas (it's 81'F now)
In 2100 Washington DC Summer 97'F like Pharr, Texas (it's 87'F now)
In 2100 Boston, Massachusetts Summer 89'F like North Miami Beach, Florida (it's 79'F now)
In 2100 Omaha, Nebraska Summer 95'F like Harlingen, Texas (it's 84'F now)
In 2100 Helena, Montana Summer 91'F like Riverside, California (it's 79'F now)
In 2100 Memphis, Tennessee Summer 100'F like Laredo, Texas (it's 89'F now)
In 2100 Phoenix, Arizona Summer 114'F like Kuwait City, Kuwait (it's 104'F now)
In 2100 San Diego, California Summer 85'F like Lexington, Kentucky (it's 78'F now)
In 2100 Napa, California Summer 91'F like New Orleans, Louisiana (it's 83'F now)


LINK: What will winters in your city feel like by 2100? (Hint: So not cool.)
Here are the winters being summed up by number of days below freezing -
In 2100 Winter in Boston MA like Marietta, Georgia 53 nights below freezing (current 115 nights below freezing)
In 2100 Winter in Helena, Montana like Lubbock, TX 83 nights below freezing (current 163 nights below freezing)
In 2100 Winter in Minneapolis MN like Asheville NC 90 nights below freezing (current 152 nights below freezing)
In 2100 Winter in Grand Junction CO like Birmingham AL 54 nights below freezing (current 125 nights below freezing)
In 2100 Winter in Salt Lake City, Utah like Cedar Hill TX 35 nights below freezing (current 97 nights below freezing)
In 2100 Winter in Washington DC like Waco TX 26 nights below freezing (current 85 nights below freezing)
In 2100 Winter in Chicago IL like Vestavia Hills AL 52 nights below freezing (current 113 nights below freezing)
In 2100 Winter in New York City like Killeen TX 29 nights below freezing (current 79 nights below freezing)



Combining Winter and Summer trends by locales/cities -

In 2100 Chicago, Illinois Summer 93'F like Mesquite, Texas (it's 82'F now)
In 2100 Winter in Chicago IL like Vestavia Hills AL 52 nights below freezing (current 113 nights below freezing)

In 2100 Saint Paul, Minnesota Summer 93'F like Mesquite, Texas (it's 81'F now)
In 2100 Winter in Minneapolis MN like Asheville NC 90 nights below freezing (current 152 nights below freezing)

In 2100 Washington DC Summer 97'F like Pharr, Texas (it's 87'F now)
In 2100 Winter in Washington DC like Waco TX 26 nights below freezing (current 85 nights below freezing)

In 2100 Boston, Massachusetts Summer 89'F like North Miami Beach, Florida (it's 79'F now)
In 2100 Winter in Boston MA like Marietta, Georgia 53 nights below freezing (current 115 nights below freezing)

In 2100 Omaha, Nebraska Summer 95'F like Harlingen, Texas (it's 84'F now)
In 2100 Winter Omaha, Nebraska like Moore, Oklahoma 68 nights below freezing (current 137 nights below freezing)

In 2100 Helena, Montana Summer 91'F like Riverside, California (it's 79'F now)
In 2100 Winter Helena, Montana like Lubbock TX 83 nights below freezing (current 168 nights below freezing)

In 2100 Memphis, Tennessee Summer 100'F like Laredo, Texas (it's 89'F now)
In 2100 Winter Memphis TN like Austin TX 16 nights below freezing (current 52 nights below freezing)

In 2100 Phoenix, Arizona Summer 114'F like Kuwait City, Kuwait (it's 104'F now)
In 2100 Winter Tucson AZ like Brownsville TX 1 nights below freezing (current 18 nights below freezing)

It's fascinating to do studies by locale. You can click on a state and more cities show up. Some states may have no towns or cities showing until you click on the state and then the cities show up.

The trend is unambiguous - basically the climate of the current South will move northwards. I assume (there is no map to verify this) that Canada's climate will become what the US is now, and that Mexico will become more tropical. Of course, that depends on rainfall.

Such a shift will make the US - as climatologists have indicated - a more desert country.

 

[Tyger]

Interactive Map
Summer's Here, And So Is The Heat - Click on each region to see how summers have warmed since 1970
LINK: Summertime Blues? U.S. Seeing Red as Temps Rise | Climate Central

TEXT: "June 2014: The summer solstice is right around the corner this Saturday and temperatures around the U.S. have started to rise to the occasion. But it’s not just a warmup from spring to summer that’s occurring: summer temperatures have been steadily rising since 1970.

"On average, temperatures have increased at a rate of about 0.4°F per decade in the contiguous U.S. since 1970, or nearly 2°F overall. But some areas have been warming much faster, and others more slowly. The fastest warming “climate divisions,” or localized areas within regions, are in southern California and Nevada in the western region. There, temperatures have risen by as much as 1.32°F per decade, or more than 5°F overall since 1970.

"The Southwest has seen the fastest average rate of summer warming at roughly 0.6°F per decade, and some parts of the region have warmed as much as 0.9°F per decade. Some parts of the Northwest have also experienced summer warming at the rate of 0.92°F per decade. Meanwhile, the Upper Midwest is bringing up the rear, warming on average by only 0.1°F per decade. Even there, however, summers in some areas have been warming by 0.5°F per decade.

"The increase is mostly due to the rise of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the globe’s atmosphere due to human activities. According to the recent National Climate Assessment, annual average temperatures in the U.S. could rise another 10°F by century’s end if emissions aren’t abated.

"Explore how your region compares by clicking on the [interactive] map [within the link]."

 

[Tyger]

Climate Change Is Increasing Extreme Heat Globally Published: February 26th, 2014
LINK: Climate Change Is Increasing Extreme Heat Globally | Climate Central

TEXT: "Despite reports of a global warming "hiatus," a new study shows that the number of areas being affected by extreme heat are on the rise and that the hottest temperatures on the planet are also increasing.

"The idea of a hiatus comes from reports of recent slowing in the rise of the globe’s average temperature. But average temperature is only one measure of the state of the Earth’s climate, and in some ways, it’s a rather poor one. After all, nobody actually experiences the planet’s average temperature.

Extreme temperatures are another metric, one that’s much more pertinent to people’s lives and livelihoods. Higher temperatures can reduce crop yields and drive up energy usage. And heat waves are the No. 1 weather-related killer in the U.S. There is evidence that suggests heat waves are becoming more likely due to climate change. Analyses of heat waves in Russia in 2010, Texas in 2011, andAustralia in 2012 have all indicated that climate change played a role in making these events more likely.

In a commentary published inNature Climate Change on Wednesday, researchers looked at changes in the prevalence of extremely high temperatures over land since 1979. Their analysis runs through 2012, the last year for which data are available.

“This study shows that the frequency of hot extremes over land has continued to increase in the last 15 years, despite an apparent stabilization of the global mean temperature,” study lead author and ETH Zurich researcher Sonia Seneviratne said in an email.

"To perform the analysis, two datasets were used to essentially divvy the globe’s land into grids and then look at shifts in the number of areas experiencing 30 days of extreme heat per year compared to the 1979-2010 average. The study defined extreme heat as daily temperatures in the top 10 percent for a given area."

Article continues - it's a long one. See Link: Climate Change Is Increasing Extreme Heat Globally | Climate Central

 

[Tyger]

Here is an article summarizing some extreme prognostications - a lot here for the time-line!

@DissectionStalker When you first suggested collecting actual predictions I wasn't very optimistic, but I am suddenly finding a great deal of these articles tumbling into my newsfeed. Though you may have meant the 2030/2035/2040 predictions - the 'in 15 years' stuff. It's hard to believe that we are actually just 15 years away from 2030!

Severe Mega-Droughts Will Ravage the United States This Century February 13, 2015
LINK: Severe Mega-Droughts Will Ravage the United States This Century

TEXT: "Extended and more severe droughts are expected to plague the southwestern United States and Central America by the end of this century, reported CBS News. These droughts will be worse than anything that’s occurred in the last 1,000 years.

"According to a report published in Science Advances, research scientists predicted that the Great Plains and American Southwest will be the most affected by “persistent” and dangerous “mega-droughts” by the end of this century. CBS News noted that such phenomena have contributed to the decline of several centuries over the course of history. These findings are very alarming and should be properly heeded. “The story is a bit bleak,” said Jason E. Smerdon, a co-author and climate scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “Even when selecting for the worst mega drought-dominated period, the 21st century projections make (those) mega droughts seem like quaint walks through the Garden of Eden.”

"Using data from the North American Drought Atlas, a catalogue of recreated droughts over the last 2,500 years, scientists were able to predict where our planet was headed. After applying 17 different climate models, they produced two possible scenarios; one with the current trends, and one if mankind aggressively acted in slowing climate change.

"This video [linked below] released by NASA shows a visual rendering of what areas will be affected by these impending mega-droughts. “The surprising thing to us was really how consistent the response was over these regions, nearly regardless of what model we used or what soil moisture metric we looked at,” said lead author Ben Cook of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “It all showed this really, really significant drying.”

NASA verified that the current drought is affecting 64 million people in the Plains and Southwest. If we continue on this current trend, then many more will eventually become affected by the growing droughts, said NASA. Our climate and planetary well-being are on a collision course for disaster. If we don’t act soon, then every living organisms’ way of life stands to be greatly threatened and damaged by climate change."


I have my answer regarding Mexico - regarding the whole of the southwest up into the Great Plains - dry desert. Mexico most of all will be punishingly hot and searingly dry. At 1:30 the simulation begins showing what is prognosticated if we continue with 'business as usual'. At 1:47 we see the continent in 2095 with 'business as usual'. If the world takes aggressive action, the trends would be significantly less severe (the report is saying) but there will still be drying - see at 1:58 (Mexico is not burnt toast, anyway).

NASA | Megadroughts Projected for American West

TEXT: "Published on Feb 12, 2015: NASA scientists used tree rings to understand past droughts and climate models incorporating soil moisture data to estimate future drought risk in the 21st century."

 

[Tyger]

Part of all this is the shape of things to come: that said, what 'renewables' will we see dotting the countryside?

New Energy Maps Show 4 Cool Things About Renewables Published: June 18th, 2014
LINK: New Energy Maps Show 4 Cool Things About Renewables | Climate Central

TEXT: "When the U.S. Energy Information Administration launched its new U.S. Energy Mapping System last fall and upgraded it for use on mobile devices in early June, it powered a system allowing anyone to visualize some of the reams of data the EIA compiles on all things energy-related in the country.

"That mapping system has a lot to show about renewables — critical to reducing climate change-driving greenhouse gas emissions — and the spread of renewables development across the continent. Here are four cool things the new Energy Mapping System can show you about where renewable energy is being produced and where it has the potential to be generated in the future:

1. Wind Turbines Are Being Built In Places You May Not Expect [see map in linked article]
"Texas, Colorado, Wyoming and Oklahoma have huge wind power potential, and giant wind farms, too. Large swathes of the East have very low wind power potential. But because Appalachian ridge tops see high sustained winds, the EIA’s maps show the pattern of wind farms that have been built throughout the Northeast in regions that otherwise have little wind power potential.

"This is especially true in Pennsylvania, where wind farms sprawl along ridge tops in regions that, at first blush, look like there is little wind potential at all. But Pennsylvania generated 2.1 million megawatt hours of wind power in 2012, about as much as windy New Mexico, EIA data show. New York, another Northeast state shown on the EIA map as having little wind potential, generated even more wind power than Pennsylvania in 2012. New York produced nearly 3 million megawatt hours of wind power in 2012, about half that of Colorado. The maps also show large areas of the U.S. with high wind power potential going untapped, especially in South Dakota and along the Colorado Front Range near Denver. These areas are highlighted in bright blue on the map.

2. The Cloudier Northeast Has Its Share Of Solar Power [see map in linked article]
The EIA’s map shows that many solar power plants are where you’d expect them to be — in Arizona, Nevada and California where sunny skies are the defining feature of the climate there. But solar power plants are also spread throughout New Jersey, New York and New England, where the solar power potential is fairly low. Sure, some of the nation’s largest solar power plants are in Arizona and California, but the map shows that, though the solar power plants in the Northeast are generally small, solar can be done there, too.

New Jersey, for example, produced about twice as much solar power in 2012 as sunny Colorado did and nearly a third more solar power in 2012 as Florida, where the solar power potential is significantly greater than anywhere in the Northeast.EIA data show that New Jersey produced 304,000 megawatt hours of solar power that year, while Florida produced 194,000 megawatt hours and Colorado produced 165,000.

3. Biomass Power Production Is All Over, But Mainly In The East And Midwest [see map in linked article]
"Biomass energy comes from many different sources, primarily the burning of wood and wood products and capturing and burning landfill gas and other waste gases. Nationally, more than 57 million megawatt hours of electricity were produced from biomass sources in 2012, with Florida and California producing the most biomass energy. But the EIA maps show that most facilities producing biomass electricity are concentrated in the Northeast, Upper Midwest and South, especially around Miami, Chicago, Detroit and New York City.

"The power plants shown on the EIA map use a wide range of sources of fuel to produce electricity. For example, The Covanta Essex Company’s 60 megawatt Covanta Essex resource recovery plant in Essex County, N.J., produces electricity by burning more than 2,800 tons of municipal solid waste each day. An irrigation district in Turlock, Calif., burns methane produced from the treatment of wastewater to generate 1.2 megawatts of electricity.

4. The U.S. Has Great Geothermal Potential; Most Of It Is Untapped [see map in linked article]
"Nevada, California, Utah, New Mexico, western Colorado are all places with large geothermal resources (heat from places where molten rock comes relatively close to the earth’s surface). But nationwide, there are only a handful of geothermal power plants, which in 2012 produced about 15.5 million megawatt hours of electricity, mostly in California, where geothermal accounts for roughly 5 percent of the state’s power generation, according to EIA data.

"Geothermal power generation has been slow, according to EIA data, mainly because of the cost and risk involved in building new geothermal power plants, which can take up to eight years longer to complete than wind and solar power generating facilities."

 

[Tyger]

An interesting map showing how the heat - as the warmest day - flows across the US.

Warmest Day of the Year - Day of warmest high temperature based on 1981-2010 climate normals
LINK: Map Shows When Summer Heat Peaks in Your Town | Climate Central

P.S. I wind up catching stuff that focusses on the US or North America. If anyone else has information and links regarding elsewhere in the world, please post.

 

[Tyger]

A very cool visual of the Greenland Ice Sheet -

NASA | Greenland's Ice Layers Mapped in 3D
LINK:

TEXT: "Published on Jan 23, 2015: LINK: http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/n...
"Peering into the thousands of frozen layers inside Greenland’s ice sheet is like looking back in time. Each layer provides a record of not only snowfall and melting events, but what the Earth’s climate was like at the dawn of civilization, or during the last ice age, or during an ancient period of warmth similar to the one we are experiencing today. Using radar data from NASA’s Operation IceBridge, scientists have built the first-ever comprehensive map of the layers deep inside the ice sheet."

 

[manxman]

Living in a Dying World
LINK: Living in a Dying World | Wake Up World

The Failed Politics and Faulty Science of Climate Change | Wake Up World

The Failed Politics and Faulty Science of Climate Change

Faulty Science of ‘Climate Change’
Let’s get real here. The debate of ‘climate change’ has not been a real debate for many years now. It was and remains a political distraction, not a scientific discourse. The complex question of our changing ecosystem has been reduced in our collective language (through media and political manipulation) to a simplistic notion of “carbon emissions”.

 

[Tyger]

Some great graphics in this article -

A MELTING ARCTIC AND WEIRD WEATHER: THE PLOT THICKENS
Arctic warming could be the driving force behind wacky winter weather that just won't go away.
LINK: The polar jet stream is acting drunk—and may be sticking us with wacky (and freezing) weather

TEXT: "Severe drought and abnormally warm conditions continue in the West, with the first-ever rain-free January in San Francisco; bitter cold hangs tough over the upper Midwest and Northeast; and New England is being buried by a seemingly endless string of snowy nor’easters. Yes, droughts, cold, and snowstorms have happened before, but the persistence of this pattern over North America is starting to raise eyebrows. Is climate change at work here?

"WAVIER JET STREAM
"One thing we do know is that the polar jet stream—a fast river of wind up where jets fly that circumnavigates the Northern Hemisphere—has been doing some odd things in recent years. Rather than circling in a relatively straight path, the jet stream has meandered more in north–south waves. In the West, it’s been bulging northward, arguably since December 2013—a pattern dubbed the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” by meteorologists. In the East, we’ve seen its southern-dipping counterpart, which I call the “Terribly Tenacious Trough.” (See picture, below).

"These long-lived shifts from the polar jet stream’s typical pattern have been responsible for some wicked weather this winter, with cold Arctic winds blasting everywhere from the Windy City to the Big Apple for weeks at a time.
We know that climate change is increasing the odds of extreme weather such as heat waves, droughts, and unusually heavy precipitation events, but is it making these sticky jet stream patterns more likely, too? Maybe."

Article continues. Click above link for full article.

NASA Jet Stream Animation

TEXT: "
Published on Jul 12, 2012: Courtesy: NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center - Meandering around the planet like a rollicking roller coaster in the sky, the Northern Hemisphere's polar jet stream is a fast-moving belt of westerly winds that traverses the lower layers of the atmosphere. The jet is created by the convergence of cold air masses descending from the Arctic and rising warm air from the tropics. Deep troughs and steep ridges emerge as the denser cold air sinks and deflects warm air regions north, giving the jet stream its wavy appearance. This pattern propagates across the mid-latitudes of North America, Europe and Asia, as pockets of cold air sporadically creep down from the Arctic—creating contrasting waves and flows that accelerate eastward due to Earth's rotation. The visualization below uses weather and climate observations from NASA's MERRA dataset to model 30 days of the jet stream's whirling journey over North America."

 

[Tyger]

Great graphics in this article -

Polar vortex brings more historic cold in eastern U.S.
LINK: Polar vortex brings more historic cold in eastern U.S. - The Washington Post
TEXT: "Friday arrived with an icy slap as Arctic air surged into the eastern United States. The cold snap caused long-standing records to tumble across the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard." (Click link for full article).

 

[Tyger]

Unfortunately, this video feed had some audio problems, but it is interesting given what is currently occurring in the eastern United States with the Polar Vortex, etc. This was recorded in August 2014, so that the prognostication is for now (see above post with link to record cold in eastern US). The summer being referenced is 2015 (when the big hurricane for the Louisiana and Texas coast is being forecast).

This is the Old Farmer's Almanac forecast and what is interesting is the information given at the end of the video about what scientific disciplines the Almanac uses to make it's forecasts: Solar Science, Climatology, and Meteorology (Jetstream, Ocean Temperatures, and a variety of other more immediate factors). The Almanac has an 80% rate of accuracy in it's weather predictions.

The Almanac's editor Janice Stillman makes an interesting comment about the Solar activity being (currently) historically low. When it last happened 400 years ago it was a time of extreme cold for most of the world for several decades.

The Old Farmer's Almanac Predicts 'Super Cold' Winter

TEXT: "Published on Aug 21, 2014: The Old Farmer’s Almanac Editor Janice Stillman on predictions for the winter weather.
Fox Business: The Willis Report w/ Gerri Willis'"

 

[Tyger]

Apple to Spend $850 Million on Solar

TEXT: "Published on Feb 12, 2015"

 

[Tyger]

I love this animation. Very cool.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10153041644474454

 

[Tyger]

The effects of the arctic amplification signal -

Jennifer Francis on Climate Change and Snow Cover

TEXT: "Published on Feb 13, 2015"

 

[Tyger]

Dr Jennifer Francis - Arctic Sea Ice, Jet Stream & Climate Change

TEXT: "Published on Nov 15, 2014: 2014 will be remembered for the range of weather extremes persistent storms that battered the country at the beginning of the year, to record high temperatures at the end of October. Scientists now have evidence that these persistent extreme weather patterns are increasing in their frequency, due to the rapid heating up of the Arctic that is changing the behavior of the jet stream.

"Dr. Jennifer Francis who is one of the leading scientists in the U.S. studying the relationship between Arctic warming and changes in the jet stream, says: “The Arctic is generally very cold and the areas farther south are warm and that difference in area between those two areas is really what fuels that vast river of weather moving high over our head that we call the jet stream.

"The jet stream in turn creates the weather that we feel all around the northern hemisphere and the middle latitudes, so anything that affects this jet stream is going to affect weather patterns. So as the Arctic warms up much faster than the areas farther south, we’re seeing this temperature difference between these two regions get smaller. This means the force that drives those winds in the jet stream are getting smaller and that means the winds themselves in the jet stream are getting weaker.

"When that happens, the jet stream tends to take a wavier path as it travels around the northern hemisphere and those waves are actually what create the stormy patterns [and] the nice weather patterns. As those waves get larger because of this weakening of those winds of the jet streams, they tend to move more slowly from west to east. That means it feels like the weather patterns are sticking around longer, because those patterns are moving much more slowly and this then makes it more likely to have the kind of extreme events that are related to persistent weather patterns.”

"Are critical findings influencing policy? These changes in climate have huge implications as Dr. Francis points out, there are “people who worry about whether there is enough fresh water to supply cities, whether there is enough snowpack on mountains to supply reservoirs, and for agriculture… Drought and agriculture is a big problem. Storminess in certain areas is another big problem. Yes, it has a huge impact for a whole range of issues that affect the way we live.” "

 

[Tyger]

New research - cutting edge. This lecture given in October 2014, so she is referencing back to winter 2014. Currently, of course, we are dealing with another extreme winter.

Dr Jennifer Francis (Rutgers) - "Rapid Arctic Warming ...." - Part 1 of 3

TEXT: "Published on Oct 24, 2014
"Rapid Arctic warming and extreme weather events in mid-latitudes: Are they connected?
Seminar by Dr Jennifer Francis
Institute of Costal Science, Rutgers University
Thursday October 23, 2014; 2:30 PM
Wayne State University Welcome Center Auditorium

"Jennifer Francis discusses the hypothesis proposed by Francis and Vavrus (2012) that links rapid Arctic warming (so-called Arctic amplification) to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere that favors more persistent weather patterns and a higher likelihood of extreme weather events such as droughts, cold spells, flooding, heavy snows, and heat waves. This hypothesis has been a topic of considerable controversy in recent months, particularly regarding its relationship to the unusual weather conditions that persisted in the winter of 2013/2014. She will discuss various aspects of this linkage, what we know and don't know, and present new related research.

"Jennifer Francis earned a B.S. in Meteorology from San Jose State University in 1988 and a PhD in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington in 1994. As a professor at Rutgers University since 1994, she has taught courses in satellite remote sensing and climate-change issues, and also co-founded and co-directed the Rutgers Climate and Environmental Change Initiative. Presently she is a Research Professor with the Rutgers Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences and studies Arctic climate change and Arctic-global climate linkages. She and her husband circumnavigated the world in a sailboat from 1980-1985, including Cape Horn and the Arctic, during which her interest in weather and the Arctic began."


Dr Jennifer Francis (Rutgers) - "Rapid Arctic Warming ...." - Part 2 of 3

TEXT: "Published on Oct 24, 2014"


Dr Jennifer Francis (Rutgers) - "Rapid Arctic Warming ...." - Part 3 of 3

TEXT: "Published on Oct 24, 2014"

 

[Tyger]

It is my opinion that the 'new energy' that will and is emerging from the 'climate crisis' will be freeing as it requires local control. Many aspects of the 'new energy' is actually free. No one can control it. Where the control enters in is in the technology used to access the free energy. Still, no matter the vision, one never knows how it will play out.

The following is an example. This may be a spin of a hope. Still interesting. A further example of how the future comes to meet us. We think we are addressing climate and other technologies get set in motion - not wholly 'thought through'. What are the implications? Are we voting for this? What will be the unexpected unplanned downsides?

How Uber’s Autonomous Cars Will Destroy 10 Million Jobs And Reshape The Economy by 2025
Guest contributor Zack Kanter is the founder of several startups in the automotive space January 27, 2015
LINK: How Uber’s Autonomous Cars Will Destroy 10 Million Jobs And Reshape The Economy by 2025 « CBS San Francisco

TEXT: "Entrepreneur and Futurist: I have spent quite a bit of time lately thinking about autonomous cars, and I wanted to summarize my current thoughts and predictions. Most people – experts included – seem to think that the transition to driverless vehicles will come slowly over the coming few decades, and that large hurdles exist for widespread adoption. I believe that this is significant underestimation. Autonomous cars will be commonplace by 2025 and have a near monopoly by 2030, and the sweeping change they bring will eclipse every other innovation our society has experienced.

"They will cause unprecedented job loss and a fundamental restructuring of our economy, solve large portions of our environmental problems, prevent tens of thousands of deaths per year, save millions of hours with increased productivity, and create entire new industries that we cannot even imagine from our current vantage point.

"The transition is already beginning to happen. Elon Musk, Tesla Motor’s CEO, says that their 2015 models will be able to self-drive 90 percent of the time.1 And the major automakers aren’t far behind – according to Bloomberg News, GM’s 2017 models will feature “technology that takes control of steering, acceleration and braking at highway speeds of 70 miles per hour or in stop-and-go congested traffic.”2 Both Google3 and Tesla4 predict that fully-autonomous cars – what Musk describes as “true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination” – will be available to the public by 2020."

"How it will unfold
"Industry experts think that consumers will be slow to purchase autonomous cars – while this may be true, it is a mistake to assume that this will impede the transition. Morgan Stanley’s research shows that cars are driven just 4% of the time, which is an astonishing waste considering that the average cost of car ownership is nearly $9,000 per year. Next to a house, an automobile is the second most expensive asset that most people will ever buy – it is no surprise that ride sharing services like Uber and car sharing services like Zipcar are quickly gaining popularity as an alternative to car ownership. It is now more economical to use a ride sharing service if you live in a city and drive less than 10,000 miles per year. The impact on private car ownership is enormous: a UC-Berkeley study showed that vehicle ownership among car sharing users was cut in half. The car purchasers of the future will not be you and me – cars will be purchased and operated by ride sharing and car sharing companies.

"And current research confirms that we would be eager to use autonomous cars if they were available. A full 60% of US adults surveyed stated that they would ride in an autonomous car , and nearly 32% said they would not continue to drive once an autonomous car was available instead. But no one is more excited than Uber – drivers take home at least 75% of every fare. It came as no surprise when CEO Travis Kalanick recently stated that Uber will eventually replace all of its drivers with self-driving cars.

"A Columbia University study suggested that with a fleet of just 9,000 autonomous cars, Uber could replace every taxi cab in New York City – passengers would wait an average of 36 seconds for a ride that costs about $0.50 per mile. Such convenience and low cost will make car ownership inconceivable, and autonomous, on-demand taxis – the ‘transportation cloud’ – will quickly become dominant form of transportation – displacing far more than just car ownership, it will take the majority of users away from public transportation as well. With their $41 billion valuation, replacing all 171,000 taxis in the United States is well within the realm of feasibility – at a cost of $25,000 per car, the rollout would cost a mere $4.3 billion.

"Fallout
"The effects of the autonomous car movement will be staggering. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that the number of vehicles on the road will be reduced by 99%, estimating that the fleet will fall from 245 million to just 2.4 million vehicles.

"Disruptive innovation does not take kindly to entrenched competitors – like Blockbuster, Barnes and Noble, Polaroid, and dozens more like them, it is unlikely that major automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota will survive the leap. They are geared to produce millions of cars in dozens of different varieties to cater to individual taste and have far too much overhead to sustain such a dramatic decrease in sales. I think that most will be bankrupt by 2030, while startup automakers like Tesla will thrive on a smaller number of fleet sales to operators like Uber by offering standardized models with fewer options.

"Ancillary industries such as the $198 billion automobile insurance market, $98 billion automotive finance market, $100 billion parking industry, and the $300 billion automotive aftermarket will collapse as demand for their services evaporates. We will see the obsolescence of rental car companies, public transportation systems, and, good riddance, parking and speeding tickets. But we will see the transformation of far more than just consumer transportation: self-driving semis, buses, earth movers, and delivery trucks will obviate the need for professional drivers and the support industries that surround them.

"The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists that 884,000 people are employed in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing, and an additional 3.02 million in the dealer and maintenance network. Truck, bus, delivery, and taxi drivers account for nearly 6 million professional driving jobs. Virtually all of these 10 million jobs will be eliminated within 10-15 years, and this list is by no means exhaustive.

"But despite the job loss and wholesale destruction of industries, eliminating the needs for car ownership will yield over $1 trillion in additional disposable income – and that is going to usher in an era of unprecedented efficiency, innovation, and job creation.

"A view of the future
"Morgan Stanley estimates that a 90% reduction in crashes would save nearly 30,000 lives and prevent 2.12 million injuries annually. Driverless cars do not need to park – vehicles cruising the street looking for parking spots account for an astounding 30% of city traffic, not to mention that eliminating curbside parking adds two extra lanes of capacity to many city streets. Traffic will become nonexistent, saving each US commuter 38 hours every year – nearly a full work week. As parking lots and garages, car dealerships, and bus stations become obsolete, tens of millions of square feet of available prime real estate will spur explosive metropolitan development.

"The environmental impact of autonomous cars has the potential to reverse the trend of global warming and drastically reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Passenger cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, and minivans account for 17.6% of greenhouse gas emissions – a 90% reduction of vehicles in operation would reduce our overall emissions by 15.9%. As most autonomous cars are likely to be electric, we would virtually eliminate the 134 billion of gasoline used each year in the US alone. And while recycling 242 million vehicles will certainly require substantial resources, the surplus of raw materials will decrease the need for mining.

"But perhaps most exciting for me are the coming inventions, discoveries, and creation of entire new industries that we cannot yet imagine.

"I dream of the transportation cloud: near-instantly available, point-to-point travel. Ambulances that arrive to the scene within seconds. A vehicle-to-grid distributed power system. A merging of city and suburb as commuting becomes fast and painless. Dramatically improved mobility for the disabled. On-demand rental of nearly anything you can imagine. The end of the DMV! It is exciting to be alive, isn’t it?"

 

[Tyger]

Within all of this are hints as to the coming job market - the scenario is interesting, as we move into an automated future driven by (ostensibly) cheap energy.

Uber Reportedly Hiring Robotics Team To Develop Driverless Cars February 2, 2015
LINK: Uber Reportedly Hiring Robotics Team To Develop Driverless Cars « CBS San Francisco

TEXT: "SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) – San Francisco-based ridesharing giant Uber may be plotting its future without drivers. Uber issued a statement Monday confirming that they have reached a strategic partnership with Carnegie Mellon University to create an “Advanced Technology Center.” The center would perform research and development in the areas of mapping, vehicle safety, and autonomy technology. “We are excited to join the community of Pittsburgh and partner with the experts at CMU, whose breadth and depth of technical expertise, particularly in robotics, are unmatched,” said Jeff Holden, Uber’s chief product officer. “As a global leader in urban transportation, we have the unique opportunity to invest in leading edge technologies to enable the safe and efficient movement of people and things at giant scale. This collaboration and the creation of the Uber Advanced Technologies Center represent an important investment in building for the long term of Uber.

"The blog Tech Crunch reports that Uber is hiring a team of Carnegie Mellon University robotics engineers to “kickstart autonomous taxi fleet development.” Citing unnamed sources, TechCrunch says the Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania-based development team will include 50 senior scientists from Mellon and associated firms working to develop cars specifically for Uber. Uber’s CEO, Travis Kalanick, has previously said getting rid of drivers would dramatically reduce costs. “When there is no other dude in the car, the cost of taking an Uber anywhere is cheaper. Even on a road trip,” he said last year, as quoted by Time. It’s not clear at this point when the company hopes to have the vehicles functioning."