Technology of the New Era

[Tyger]

Here is a wind turbine for your own backyard

TEXT: "Published on Sep 21, 2016"

 

[Tyger]

Many are living in the past. The future is unfolding all around us - and the economic shift is painful. Love this quote he gives: "Only puny secrets need protection. Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity." ~ Marshall McLuhan

The example of Ford as the disruptive technolgy in the early 1900's is exceptionally vivid with the two pictures he shows: one in 1900 (hard to find the first automobile), and 1913 (hard to find the last horse and buggy). In just thirteen years there was a stunning change in the technological landscape - he has a lot of interesting observations and perspectives to share.

The future foreseen by so many is coming no matter what - and as it happens - because of Trump, in fact - it will be coming down around us faster than we bargained for just 6 years ago. Consider the rapidity of the change - the scientists have been correct in their predictions, although actually not aggressive enough as it happens. The game has significantly shifted - the biggest player of all is the climate forcing our hand. While people rail that it's all 'silly' to be so engaged there are things to do, people to see, problems to solve, and a new world to usher in. Those prepared will be the ones to prosper. The rest - the nay-sayers et al - will hang on as best they can and hope to survive the coming alterations.

Disruptive Energy Futures: Dr Amory Lovins (March 2016)

TEXT: "Published on Nov 22, 2016: Fair Use: Educational (March 2016)"

 

[Tyger]

The robot that takes your job should pay taxes, says Bill Gates
LINK: The robot that takes your job should pay taxes, says Bill Gates

TEXT Excerpted: "Robots are taking human jobs. But Bill Gates believes that governments should tax companies’ use of them, as a way to at least temporarily slow the spread of automation and to fund other types of employment. [...] In a recent interview with Quartz, Gates said that a robot tax could finance jobs taking care of elderly people or working with kids in schools, for which needs are unmet and to which humans are particularly well suited. He argues that governments must oversee such programs rather than relying on businesses, in order to redirect the jobs to help people with lower incomes. The idea is not totally theoretical: EU lawmakers considered a proposal to tax robot owners to pay for training for workers who lose their jobs, though on Feb. 16 the legislators ultimately rejected it."​

 

[Tyger]

UN Report: Robots Will Replace Two-Thirds of All Workers in the Developing World
LINK: UN Report: Robots Will Replace Two-Thirds of All Workers in the Developing World

TEXT Excerpted: In brief -

• Not only will 75% of jobs go to automation, the developing world may also see swaths of companies leaving their shores and returning to developed nations, as labor will be less of a factor for industry.
• Plans, such as a universal basic income, need to be initiated before this process proliferates and these regions are plunged into even more dire circumstances.

 

[Tyger]

Do Robots Deserve Rights? What if Machines Become Conscious?

TEXT: "Published on Feb 23, 2017: What shall we do once machines become conscious? Do we need to grant them rights?"

 

[Tyger]

Yep - this is the future - it's coming.....a Basic Income....I have been peddling this for years - and now, Elon Musk is on board.

Elon Musk says Universal Basic Income is “going to be necessary.”

TEXT: "Published on Feb 16, 2017: Elon Musk at the World Government Summit 2017 in Dubai."

 

[Tyger]

We've already come quite far with bionics. It won't be long before we see excellent quality hands and other body parts being made, too. At this stage the primary barrier is price.

The New Bionics that let us run,climb, and dance
The new bionics that let us run, climb and dance
TEXT: "Hugh Herr is building the next generation of bionic limbs, robotic prosthetics inspired by nature's own designs. Herr lost both legs in a climbing accident 30 years ago; now, as the head of the MIT Media Lab’s Biomechatronics group, he shows his incredible technology in a talk that's both technical and deeply personal — with the help of ballroom dancer Adrianne Haslet-Davis, who lost her left leg in the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, and performs again for the first time on the TED stage."

 

[Tyger]

The Rise of the Weaponized AI Propaganda Machine
There’s a new automated propaganda machine driving global politics. How it works and what it will mean for the future of democracy
LINK: Scout | {{$state.current.data.pageTitle}}

 

[Tyger]

Elon Musk's latest talk about AI, the need for a universal basic income and aliens... "One way to think of AI is imagine you were very confident we were going to be visited by super intelligent aliens in 10 years or 20 years at the most. Digital super intelligence will be like an alien."

Elon Musk talks about commercial space flights, AI and a ‘universal income’ for every human
LINK: ‘Intelligent aliens are already observing us’

TEXT: TECH billionaire Elon Musk has revealed he believes artificial intelligence could be catastrophic for humanity who are set to become a cyborg race which will have to grapple with 15 per cent of the global work force being without a job. The creative genius added a ‘universal income’ would have to be introduced for the global population because robots will do everything.

Speaking at the World Government Summit in Dubai, the entrepreneur also told the 4000 strong conference he saw space flights to the far reaches of the solar system being as common as a plane ride in 50 years. And self-driven cars were just 10 years away from usurping human driven vehicles completely.

The business magnate, who was being interviewed by Mohammad Abdulla Alergawi, the Minister of Cabinet Affairs and the Future for the UAE, told the slightly perplexed crowd: “One of the most troubling questions is artificial intelligence. I don’t mean narrow A.I. — deep artificial intelligence, where you can have A.I. which is much smarter than the smartest human on earth. This is a dangerous situation.” He also warned world governments: “Pay close attention to the development of artificial intelligence. Make sure researchers don’t get carried away — scientists get so engrossed in their work they don’t realize what they are doing.” When asked if he thought A.I. was a good or a bad thing Musk said: “I think it is both. One way to think of it is imagine you were very confident we were going to be visited by super intelligent aliens in 10 years or 20 years at the most. Digital super intelligence will be like an alien." He then joked: “It seems probable. But this is one of the great questions in physics and philosophy — where are the aliens? Maybe they are among us I don’t know. Some people think I am an alien. Not true. Of course I would say that though wouldn’t I?” He went on: “If there are super intelligent aliens out there they are probably already observing us. We are just not smart enough to realize it. Any advanced alien civilization that was at all interested in populating the galaxy, even without exceeding the speed of light, at say 10 or 20 per cent of the speed of light, you could populate the entire galaxy in 20 million years max. That is nothing in the grand scheme of things.”

Musk also discussed how he saw human beings as already being ‘cyborgs’ as we become more and more dependent on technology. To muted laughter from the crowd he explained: “To some degree we are already a cyborg — you think of all the digital tools that you have — your phone, your computer. The applications that you have. The fact that you can ask a question and instantly get an answer from Google and other things. You already have a digital tertiary layer. Think of the limbic system — the animal brain and the cortex as the thinking part of the brain, and your digital self as a third layer. If you die your digital ghost is still around. All of their emails, and social media, that still lives if they die. Over time we will see a closer merger of biological intelligence and digital intelligence. It is all about the band width of the brain. The digital extension of yourself. Output if anything is getting worse. We do most of our output through our thumbs which is very slow. Some high band width interface to the brain will be something which helps achieve symbiosis between human and machine intelligence, which solves a control and usefulness problem.”

The minister introduced Musk by comparing him in brilliance to Albert Einstein but the billionaire revealed that while many may admire his genius, he wasn’t that comfortable with it: “I think that they probably shouldn’t want to be me — it sounds better than it is. It is not as much fun as you think. It could be worse for sure (but) I am not sure I want to be me.” The minister was also being interviewing Musk because he is launching Tesla, his electric car brand, in the Middle East. The entrepreneur said he saw cars as being totally autonomous in around 10 years. And since October 2016 Tesla vehicles have had enough computer capability in each model to be easily upgraded to a self-drive. He likened using a self drive car to ‘getting in an elevator’ and pressing a button.

Musk said autonomous cars would be a great convenience, but also a game changer for society, adding he saw the advances in technology causing mass unemployment. This would result in huge swathes of the population losing their direction and purpose: “I think (driving) might be the single largest employer in various forms. We need to figure out new roles — what do those people do? It will be very disruptive and very quick.”

Estimating there are nearly two and half billion cars and trucks in the world, he added: “The point at which we see full autonomy appear, will not be the point where we see mass upheaval. That disruption will take place over 20 years. But 20 years to have 12 — 15 per cent of the work force unemployed is a short time.” His solution was unemployment benefit for the masses: “What to do about mass employment — this is going to be a big challenge. “We will need to have some kind of universal basic income — I don’t think there will be a choice. There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better. These are things that I wish would happen, these are things probably will happen. I think some kind of universal income will be necessary. The harder challenge is how do people then have meaning — because a lot of people derive their meaning from their employment. If you are not needed, if there is not a need for your labour. What’s the meaning? “Do you have meaning, are you useless? That is a much harder problem to deal with.”

Musk also suggested, like in The Matrix, we could even be in a created reality already and not even realise it: “Now you can see a video game that is photo realistic and millions of people playing simultaneously, and you see where things are going with virtual reality and augmented reality. If you extrapolate that out into the future with any rate of progress at all, at 0.1 per cent a year, or something like that, then eventually those games will be indistinguishable from reality. They will be so realistic you will not be able to tell the difference from that game and life as we know it. How do we know that didn’t happen in the past and we are not in one of those games ourselves?”

The business magnate also his plans for space flight revealing he would like to see travel to different planets and solar systems as a common occurrence in as little as 50 years: “I hope we are out there on Mars, and maybe beyond, the moons of Jupiter. I hope we are travelling frequently outside the solar system and nearby star systems. I believe all of this will be possible in 50 years.”

Musk, who is enjoying time with his children in Dubai while attending the conference, also discussed the tunnel he is building under Los Angeles to combat traffic issues. Joking he said: “It’s secret plot, just between you and me.” He then went on to explain: “I think the solution to urban congestion is a network of tunnels under cities. Tunnels that go many levels deep. You can always go deeper that you can go up. The deepest mines are deeper than the tallest buildings. Given that you can overcome the congestion in any city in the world The challenge is just learning how to build tunnels quickly, at low cost, with high safety. Washington DC, New York and LA and most of the major cities in the world suffer from major traffic issues.”​

 

[Tyger]

The video of the interview recorded above in the previous post.

Elon Musk at the World Government Summit 2017 in Dubai. Conversation with Mohammad Al Gergawi

TEXT: "Published on Feb 16, 2017: “A Conversation with Elon Musk” at the World Government Summit 2017 in Dubai.

While in Dubai for the official launch of Tesla in the UAE, Elon Musk attended the World Government Summit 2017 to unpack his current focus areas for local leaders. Musk shared his usual themes of sustainability, electrified transport, dying on Mars and more recently, warnings about runaway artificial intelligence, while in Dubai.

In what felt like the awkward clash of a teenage reverie and middle eastern culture, Elon dove into the possibility of life being a virtual experience and not a physical experience, noting the almost indiscernible difference between graphics in modern video games and our perception of the physical world.

These ponderings naturally dovetailed into warnings about the possibility of negative outcomes for artificial intelligence which is one of Elon’s new focus areas as he looks to life beyond Tesla. Elon talked about he is looking to unlock the full capacity of humans with cyborg plugins…and how we are already using technology to do this which an obvious hint at his interest in a neural lace. This embedded device would directly interact with human brains, translating thoughts directly into a digital signal.

Elon also briefly touched on Sustainable Energy Generation, Mass Unemployment, Cyborgs aka the neural net, Reusability of rockets and the important of healthy feedback loops from trusted advisors.

 

[Tyger]

Tesla kills the duck with big batteries
LINK: Tesla kills the duck with big batteries

TEXT: One of the problems that comes from reliance on solar power is the “duck curve” where the solar panels produce more power than is needed during the day, and standby power is needed in the evening when demand is high and the sun goes down. The common solution has been to turn on natural gas “peaker” plants to produce power when the needed in those few hours. But in Southern California, a big natural gas leak turned into what Melissa called an epic ecological disaster, sending utilities searching for an alternative to gas.

© If it looks like a duck ... (Photo: California ISO)

One of those alternatives that people dreamed about just a few years ago was giant batteries, and Elon Musk promised that he would make them in his new Nevada factory. What is really astonishing is that in just three months, Tesla has delivered a giant battery farm with 396 stacks of batteries that can provide enough electricity to power 15,000 houses for four hours, about how long it takes to shave the peaks, to kill the duck.

Even the experts are shocked at the speed this is happening at: According to the New York Times :

“I had relatively limited expectations for the battery industry in advance of 2020,” said Michael J. Picker, president of the California Public Utilities Commission. “I thought that it would not really accelerate and begin to penetrate the electric grid or the transportation world for a while to come. Once again, technology is clearly moving faster than we can regulate.”​

Natural gas peaker plants are expensive and controversial; you want them near the user, but the NIMBYs come out in force. Battery packs are much simpler, they are modular and they are scalable. According to Tesla Chief Technology Officer J.B. Straubel in Bloomberg,

“There were teams working out there 24 hours a day, living in construction trailers and doing the commissioning work at two in the morning,” Straubel said. “It feels like the kind of pace that we need to change the world.”​

MIT Technology Review's Jamie Condliffe is a bit of a skeptic, noting that lithium batteries are expensive and that they degrade.

Tesla doesn’t say how many cycles that the batteries in its Powerpack systems, which make up the installation, can tolerate before they degrade and reach the end of their useful life. But like other lithium-ion batteries, it’s likely in the thousands—probably around 5,000, the same as its Powerwall units. That’s not bad in a domestic setting, but could be quickly devoured in a grid setting.

Others do not think this is too much of a problem, that battery prices will keep dropping, and that they will keep getting better.

© Tesla

This TreeHugger has been forced to eat a lot of words recently after complaining how net zero building and rooftop solar was going to create huge problems; I noted recently that Tesla’s power wall “is a real game-changer, that erases so many of the problems I have had with rooftop solar and its dependence on the grid, the whole duck curve thing, just gone.”

Now that they can replace expensive and controversial peaker plants with battery packs, the game changes again in favour of solar and wind. Straubel of Tesla is right- this will change the world.​

 

[Tyger]

At the end of the video there are some great shots of the new $35,000/$40,000 Tesla rolling out now, albeit very slowly (Plunk down $1,000 for the waiting list). I have seen 2 of them on the road here in SoCal and they are gorgeous. I currently drive one of the new Prius Four Touring models with the jazzy aerodynamic lines - and the new Tesla reminds me of it. Plus I like that the new Tesla is smaller than the previous models. Perfect. The new Tesla's will have (or already have) the self-driving option. Very cool. The Advanced Technology Package is to die for.

Tesla (Elon Musk) Powerwall 2 & Solar Roof Launch

 

[ALPHA ROMEO UNIFORM]

Great all these power so called saving technologies I wait until more scientific papers are done on the effects toward humans from excess power from Solar Systems and batteries devices.

 

[Tyger]

If the robots are coming for our jobs, make sure they pay their taxes by John Naughton
Periods of automation bring disruption and hurt workers’ wages. Perhaps Silicon Valley should pick up the compensation bill for the next one
LINK: If the robots are coming for our jobs, make sure they pay their taxes | John Naughton

TEXT: The problem with the future is that it’s unknowable. But of course that doesn’t stop us trying to second-guess it. At the moment, many people – and not just in the tech industry – are wondering about the impact of automation on employment. And not just blue-collar employment – the kind of jobs that were eliminated in the early phase of automating car production, for instance – but also the white-collar jobs that hitherto seemed secure.

In a much-cited 2013 study, for example, economists David Autor of MIT and David Dorn of Spain’s CEMFI institute found that because computers could now be substituted for low-skill workers performing routine tasks (book-keeping, clerical work and repetitive production and monitoring activities) we were going to see a “hollowing-out” of middle-skilled, middle-wage jobs and “a corresponding rise in employment at both the high and low ends of the skills spectrum”. And in a 2015 study, two Oxford researchers, Carl Frey and Mike Osborne, took the 702 categories that the US labour department uses to classify jobs and tried to estimate which of them might be vulnerable to automation using the “smart” technologies that are now commonplace. Their conclusion: almost half (47%).

If these predictions are accurate, then there is trouble ahead because the existence of a stable middle class seems to be a prerequisite for a liberal democracy. But because of the aforementioned problem with the future, we don’t know how immediate the threat of high-end automation is. It could be that getting to this particular future will take a lot longer than the technology’s boosters and Cassandras think. But no one – with the possible exception of Donald Trump – doubts that it will happen.

The standard riposte to concerns about automation is to pooh-pooh them. This is an old story, sceptics contend. Anxiety about the rise of the machines goes back to Elizabeth I and the stocking frame. And each time the fears have been overblown: the new technology did indeed destroy jobs; but the new industries that it enabled eventually created even more jobs. So calm down: it will come good in the end.

And maybe it will. But there’s still a problem. What both the boosters and the sceptics ignore is that waves of automation have always involved periods of traumatic disruption. In a fascinating recent article the economist Tyler Cowen pointed out the problem with blithe assumptions about a better future – they miss out on the history of what actually happened in the great industrial transformations of the past. “The shift out of agricultural jobs,” he writes, “while eventually a boon for virtually all of humanity, brought significant problems along the way. This time probably won’t be different, and that’s why we should be concerned.”

Estimates for private per-capita consumption from 1760 to 1831, for example, suggest that it rose only by about 22%. And Cowen cites estimates by the economic historian Gregory Clark that “English real wages may have fallen about 10% from 1770 to 1810, a 40-year period. Clark also estimates that “it took 60 to 70 years of transition, after the onset of industrialisation, for English workers to see sustained real wage gains at all”.

Translate that to the present and you can see the dangers. If the people hitherto known as middle-class were to experience this kind of income suppression, we would expect political trouble. Yet, says Cowen, that may be the track the US is on. Median household income is down since 1999, and median male wages were probably higher in 1969 than they are today. His conclusion: transition costs from automation will be higher than many economists – and everyone in the tech industry – likes to think.

Then there is the question – also avoided by the tech industry – of who pays those transition costs. Conventional thinking says that the owners of the machines should reap the rewards, while the state picks up the costs of the ensuing human wreckage. So when Bill Gates pitched into the debate last week with a proposal that robots should be taxed, just like human workers are, you can imagine the splutters of outrage from the neoliberal fortresses of Silicon Valley. “Right now,” he said, “the human worker who does, say, $50,000 worth of work in a factory, that income is taxed and you get income tax, social security tax, all those things. If a robot comes in to do the same thing, you’d think that we’d tax the robot at a similar level.” And the money raised should be used to retrain people the robots have replaced, with “communities where this has a particularly big impact” first in line for support. I never thought I’d write this, but here goes: good for you, Mr Gates.​

 

[Tyger]

Great all these power so called saving technologies I wait until more scientific papers are done on the effects toward humans from excess power from Solar Systems and batteries devices.

For sure. We already know that the Lithium Batteries are severely toxic.

 

[Tyger]

Economics and politics are inevitable bed-fellows. Technology is the peanut-butter-and-jam in the sandwich.

Rutger Bregman: ‘We could cut the working week by a third’
Could this young Dutchman, hailed as a visionary, galvanise the left with his radical plan for a borderless future in which we are all paid for working less?
LINK: Rutger Bregman: ‘We could cut the working week by a third’

TEXT Excerpted: As liberal democracy seems to be crumbling under the weight of widespread despondency, some hardline opinions are in danger of becoming received wisdoms. In the global market, we are told, we must work harder and improve productivity. The welfare state has become too large and we need to cut back on benefits. Immigration is out of control and borders need to be strengthened.

The choice seems to be either to accept this new paradigm or risk the likes of Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders gaining power. The centre ground is being dragged to the left and right, and collapsing down the middle. Meanwhile progressive politics has returned to its comfort zone, busily opposing everything and offering almost nothing. Where is the vision, the ambition, the belief?

Yet into this bleak picture drops a book and an author bristling with hope, optimism and answers. Rutger Bregman is a 28-year-old Dutchman whose book, Utopia for Realists, has taken Holland by storm and could yet revitalise progressive thought around the globe. His solutions are quite simple and staunchly set against current trends: we should institute a universal basic income for everyone that covers minimum living expenses – say around £12,000 a year; the working week should be shortened to 15 hours; borders should be opened and migrants allowed to move wherever they choose.

If that all sounds like fantasy politics, then Bregman has assembled a wealth of empirical evidence to make his case. Better than that, though, it is not a dry, statistical analysis – although he doesn’t shy from solid data – but a book written with verve, wit and imagination. The effect is charmingly persuasive, even when you can’t quite believe what you’re reading.​

 

[Tyger]

Sign of the times - what is coming, either long or short, what is coming.

From The Guardian article about Rutger Bregman's ideas (which I wholeheartedly endorse!)

We are having a divergence with the surgence of religious fundamentalism and push-back on science and the assertion of authoritarianism, nationalism and fear-based racial bigotry, but if we survive the perils of the current nuclear threat, technology and economics demands the obvious transformation of work and society across the world. IMO.

"But utopias also have a habit of turning out to be dystopias. Bregman is alive to this threat, and is scathing in his assessment of the communist experiment, but also argues that the unintended consequences of massive change can sometimes be virtuous too. I mention that in his book he suggests that universal basic income will enable the low-paid to study and then get the kinds of jobs they want to do. In which case, I wonder, who will be a cleaner?

"He smiles at the question.

“ 'I think one of the most important facts of basic income would be that it’s not only a redistribution of income, but also of power. So the cleaners and bin men would have a lot more bargaining power. If you look at a university, for example, the cleaners will get paid more than the professors, which I think is an entirely good thing. Professors love their jobs, they don’t need additional money for it. The cleaners don’t like their jobs – well, they get rewarded for it!'

"I suggest that someone suffering through a PhD might not share that particular conviction. But he answers with a conviction that has triumphed over doubt. 'Basic income would give people the most important freedom: the freedom of deciding for themselves what they want to do with their lives.'

"I can imagine many old heads questioning the wisdom of a young man who has barely experienced the stubborn complexity of the world. But Bregman is clearly on to something. Following his advocacy, Utrecht and several other Dutch towns are conducting trials on basic income. Finland has implemented a trial, but only with the unemployed. Two Scottish councils, Fife and Glasgow, are looking at a scheme and the Swiss are also interested. The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, has said that it 'might be an idea whose time has come', and Benoît Hamon, the French Socialist candidate in the forthcoming elections, has included it in his manifesto. Even visionary US tech billionaire Elon Musk is in favour.

[...]

"History is moving this way and has been for some time. It’s just a question of when and how we’re going to acknowledge the inevitable."​

 

[Tyger]

Following article is just positing possibilities. Some of it reads like a bad science fiction writer's scenario building (imo - not all but some of it). Keeping in mind that there is a confluence of pressures mounting - and it is through that that the future will emerge (not just technology, but political, economic, philosophical and religious thought). One can - however - have simultaneous and (apparently) divergent events shaping the future. Technology requires strong institutions - yet we are also looking at a more decentralized future, more regionalization. How will mass world-wide technologies work into that? We are looking at a decline in world population after hitting 7 billion - how will the world economy shift to accommodate? Stuff like that.

Artificial intelligence: Professor Toby Walsh on 10 ways society will change by 2050
LINK: 10 predictions about the AI revolution

TEXT: Leading Australian artificial intelligence scientist Professor Toby Walsh is warning that we are "sleepwalking" into an AI future in which billions of machines and computers will be able to think. Professor Walsh, from the University of New South Wales, is calling for a national discussion about whether society needs to adopt clear boundaries and guidelines around how AI is developed and how it's used in our lives.

In his book It's Alive: Artificial Intelligence From The Logic Piano to Killer Robots, he has highlighted key questions in a series of predictions that describe how our future could be far better or far worse because of AI. Here's how he thinks society might change by 2050 thanks to artificial intelligence.

1. You are banned from driving
Humans drive drunk, tired and distracted and cause 95 per cent of accidents. The roads will be much safer without human drivers and most likely far less congested, as networked vehicles service passengers 24/7. Street parking and most car parks will disappear, transport will be cheaper and groups such the elderly and disabled will have greater personal mobility.

Most people won't bother buying cars and will lose driving skills. And autonomous vehicles will arrive quickly — within 15-20 years. "By 2050, the year 2000 will look as quaintly old-fashioned as the horse drawn era of 1900 did to people in 1950," Professor Walsh said.

2. You see the doctor daily
Your personal 24/7 AI doctor will know your gene sequence and vulnerabilities to particular diseases. It will continually monitor your blood pressure, sugar levels, sleep and exercise. It will process data from your toilet, which will automatically analyse your urine and stools.

Your future version of a smartphone or fitness watch will regularly take selfies to identify melanomas and eye disease. It will record your voice for signs of a cold, dementia or a stroke. It will call for help if you faint. It will also be a trillion-dollar global business. "Our personal AI physician will have our life history, it will know far more about medicine than any single doctor, and it will stay on top of all the emerging medical literature," Professor Walsh said.

3. Marilyn Monroe is back in the movies
Avatars will be programmed to act and talk like anyone we choose in interactive movies, including ourselves or celebrities from recent history. nWhere the story goes depends on what you do or say. Hollywood and the computer games industry will merge and immerse us in hyper-real worlds.

But there will be increasing concern about the seductive nature of these unreal, alternate worlds. There may be an underclass of addicts who spend every waking moment in them. And some who behave in distasteful or illegal ways. "This problem will likely trouble our society greatly," Professor Walsh said. "There will be calls that behaviours which are illegal in the real world should be made illegal or impossible in the virtual."

4. A computer hires and fires you
That's just the beginning. AI systems will also increasingly take over managing how you work: scheduling your activities, approving holidays, monitoring and rewarding your performance. But should we hand over decisions like hiring and especially firing to a computer? "We will have to learn when to say to computers: 'Sorry, I can't let you do that.' It's not enough for a machine to do a task better than a human. There are some decisions we simply should not allow machines to make."

5. You talk to rooms
You will walk into a room and say "lights on" and "who won the football?" and one of the many AI devices in your house will recognise your voice and understand you well enough to know which football code you follow. A few people will resist and determinedly follow a disconnected 20th Century life. But most of us will take advantage of having just about everything in our lives connected: fridges, toasters, baths, door locks, windows, bicycles and pot plants.

AI will operate through the so-called Internet of Things using conversation instead of typing. "Our privacy, diversity and democracy will be challenged," Professor Walsh said. "[Government] intelligence [agencies] can't wait for every room to be listening to us. Marketers, too, would love all this data about our everyday lives. "So, the next time you get asked to check your privacy settings, think long and hard about what you may be giving up."

6. A robot robs a bank
Cyber-crime to date has been relatively low-tech with phishing and malware attacks. But AI will surpass human hackers — and the only defence will be another AI program.

Warfare is also moving into cyberspace. But these technologies will also quickly find their way into the civilian sphere. One of the challenges will be that many advances in AI used to defend systems will be quickly turned around to attack systems. "The supposed hacking by Russians in order to influence the 2016 US presidential election demonstrates the impact that such cyber attacks can have," Professor Walsh said. "Banks [and other companies and governments] will have no choice but to invest more and more in sophisticated AI systems to defend themselves from attack."

7. World soccer champions lose to a robot team
Robots will have superior ball skills, including unfailing accuracy in passes and penalties. They will know precisely where all players are at all times and will know how to interpret that information because their AI system learned strategic play from watching every World Cup match ever recorded.

The human team will be soundly defeated. Even fans of the robots will call for the humans to be given a break. That's why most sporting teams will stay human. But AI will change football and most other games with managers and players using AI to train and play better. "Data scientists will be some of the best paid members of football [and other sporting] clubs," Professor Walsh said. "Scouts will hang out at [top universities] to recruit young computer scientists."

8. Ghost ships, planes and trains cross the globe
The oceans, skies and railroads of the planet will be filled with autonomous ships, planes and trains transporting cargo without any people on board, as driverless car technology spreads to other industries. It will improve safety and efficiency. And children will no longer grow up wanting to be train drivers. "Planes carrying people will probably continue to be piloted by humans," Professor Walsh said. "But after several decades of safe flights by cargo planes, the debate will begin whether humans should still be airline pilots."

9. TV news is made without humans
Nearly every part of this prediction is already here — it's just that no-one has yet pulled all the pieces together. Computers now write simple sport and financial stories but as technology improves, AI will write more complex stories.

Avatars and chatbots will play the role of presenters filmed by robotic cameras. And the news you watch will be narrowcast, or tailored to your personal preferences. "There will be ongoing debate about the biases of algorithms, especially when humans take no part in deciding what news we see," Professor Walsh said. "Our viewpoints are shaped by the lens through which we look at the world. Will algorithms challenge us enough? Will they understand lies and deception? Will they care about what we care about?"

10. Humans live on after death
It will be common to leave behind an AI chatbot that will talk like you, know the story of your life and comfort your family when you die. Some people might give their chatbot the task of reading their will; settling old scores; or relieving grief through humour. Digital doubles will also appear in place of the living. Celebrities will use bots to create social media; many of us will similarly use them to manage our diaries. This digital outsourcing will fuel a lively debate.

Professor Walsh asked: "What redress do you have against an AI bot that pretends to be you? Do you have a right know if you're interacting with a computer rather than a real person? Should AI bots be prohibited from political discourse? Who can switch off your bot after you die? Do bots have freedom of speech? It will be an interesting future."​

 

[mike]

You talk to rooms
You will walk into a room and say "lights on" and "who won the football?" and one of the many AI devices in your house will recognise your voice and understand you well enough to know which football code you follow. A few people will resist and determinedly follow a disconnected 20th Century life. But most of us will take advantage of having just about everything in our lives connected: fridges, toasters, baths, door locks, windows, bicycles and pot plants.

Google Home Breaks Up Domestic Dispute By Calling The Police

 

[Tyger]

Regarding rooms - I know I am keen to have the day come when I can access my house via either my hand-print or voice. Using a key is so - archaic.

There are about three 'smart' houses' that have been built in the neighborhood. Most Teslas on the road are in self-driving mode here in L.A. My Prius has a near self-driving cruise control - I still must command the steering.