The Roswell Poll!

[Gareth]

Not sure, but if Mogul was used as a cover up, i think it was used as a cover up at the time as it really does appear to be what is in the photo with Jesse Marcel. Polygraphs are fairly crap anyway i think

Yeah but Jesse Marcel admitted they changed all that stuff. Thats not the original stuff from the debris field.

You did know that right?

 

[Aaron LeClair]

Yeah but Jesse Marcel admitted they changed all that stuff. Thats not the original stuff from the debris field.

You did know that right?

The AF's newer story states the debri was switched too if I remember correctly.

 

[Hoffmeister]

The AF's newer story states the debri was switched too if I remember correctly.

I knew Jesse said it was switched, i wasnt aware that the AF are now also saying they switched it. What did they apparently switch it to?

 

[Aaron LeClair]

I knew Jesse said it was switched, i wasnt aware that the AF are now also saying they switched it. What did they apparently switch it to?

Mogul. The wreckage in the pic they say is not the debri of Mogul, but of a weather balloon. if I remember correctly. Some say Mogul was attached to many weather balloons though, so it gets confusing.

I briefly relooked at some of the AF's release statements and couldn't confirm my memory. So, I could be wrong. I'm Roswelled out and so I don't keep up with it as much these days and just working off somewhat distant memory.

 

[Gareth]

Its beyond obvious that whatever it was that day, it was NOT mogul.

Did you guys see Kevin Randles latest blog post?



A Different Perspective: More Bad News for Mogul

 

[Hoffmeister]

I certainly don't think anything is beyond doubt in the roswell case.

Here's what I think most likely happened.

Project mogul crashed on the land. The wreckage was mis-identified as a flying saucer as it was right in the middle of a national flying saucer outbreak and a number of sightings had been seen recently.
Perhaps one person initially mis-identified it and the others were led by this mis-identification. They took it to the army base and the press release was given. Then when it was realised that it was mogul and a disk they changed their story and put the other press release out.
I don't think the wreckage was changed (unless Aarons earlier statement is confirmed) and believe that was fabricated in Jesse Marcels mind, not neccesarily intentionally.
And that where the disk story all breaks down for me, if Jesse was wrong and they didnt switch the wreckage, then it seems almost certain that it was just mogul. Not only would he not nessecarily remember but he had motive to change his story. All the other people who suddenly remembered or decided to talk all those years later just can't be trusted as valid witnesses imo.
So thats why i think it was mogul.

I welcome any corrections to the 'facts' in my timeline, and please don't flame as its just my opinion.

 

[Hoffmeister]

What's the point in coming to conclusions about Roswell Hoff?

Well on the one hand there is no point as we'll never know for sure.
But at the same point in time, we'll never know for sure about any of the paranormal stuff, so if you use the previous reasoning, we might as well all pack our pots and pans and stop talking about all this for good.

So in answer to your question:
1. I'm just intersted in other peoples opinions
2. As mentioned in some other posts, i'm not the sort of person who can just say "oh we'll never know" and then have all the thoughts swishing round in my head. I need to try and come to some sort of conclusion or i never sleep!

 

[Aaron LeClair]

Well on the one hand there is no point as we'll never know for sure.
But at the same point in time, we'll never know for sure about any of the paranormal stuff, so if you use the previous reasoning, we might as well all pack our pots and pans and stop talking about all this for good.

So in answer to your question:
1. I'm just intersted in other peoples opinions
2. As mentioned in some other posts, i'm not the sort of person who can just say "oh we'll never know" and then have all the thoughts swishing round in my head. I need to try and come to some sort of conclusion or i never sleep!

In time, unless you're righteous, You'll learn to say you don't know.

 

[fitzbew88]

Perhaps one person initially mis-identified it and the others were led by this mis-identification. They took it to the army base and the press release was given.

Yeah, if it was weather balloon-type material (neoprene, aluminum foil, balsa wood, etc..) it was mis-identified by more than one person.

Brazel was apparently dumbfounded by it, along with a few of his neighbors. The Sheriff in Roswell was dumbfounded enough by it to call the AAF. The AAF was dumbfounded enough by it to send two officers on an overnight excursion to check it out. The AAF felt justified in the original press release, and then felt compelled to fly the junk (whatever it was) to Houston, then on to Wright-Patterson. Which was a very odd thing to do for junk.

I don't think the wreckage was changed (unless Aarons earlier statement is confirmed) and believe that was fabricated in Jesse Marcels mind, not neccesarily intentionally.

Well, the switch at the photo shoot was [weakly] corroborated by General Dubose, who was on Roger Ramey's staff at 8th Air Force. But Dubose seemed to contradict himself. (I believe Aaron has already linked to Kevin Randle's lengthy blog entry about this issue.)

Randle also reports that one of the photographers present had some kind've "impression" that the debris was switched --- although there is not much info on this.

My own eyes are skeptical that the debris in the photos has been exposed to the desert for weeks. It looks very clean and "crisp".

So the possibility of a switch at the photo shoot is not totally in Marcel's head, but it does still remain in the Gray Basket.

And that where the disk story all breaks down for me, if Jesse was wrong and they didnt switch the wreckage, then it seems almost certain that it was just mogul.

Whether it was Mogul or something paranormal, the debris had cause to be switched. So the fact of a switch does not help us get to the truth.

If we know that it was *not* switched, then that does help us.

Not only would he not nessecarily remember but he had motive to change his story. All the other people who suddenly remembered or decided to talk all those years later just can't be trusted as valid witnesses imo.

No doubt memory is a malleable thing, but our efforts are somewhat buoyed by the fact that we know that something was found and that it caused a lot of excitement.

We're forced to choose between a set of outrageous choices: a paranormal vehicle crashed in the desert, or a long line of men grossly misidentified very mundane materials.

Neither of these is a good choice.

 

[Hoffmeister]

My own eyes are skeptical that the debris in the photos has been exposed to the desert for weeks. It looks very clean and "crisp".

Hey thats actually a really good point, i never thought of that

 

[Kieran]

I think you have to be be very stupid to mistake a weather ballon for a flying disk, dont you think?
I still dont know what happened at Roswell? But why issue a press release stateing that they had a flying disk in the first place, it doesnt seem logical considering the time period.


Plus reports suggust the wreckage was spread out for miles, how big was the ballon lol. It rather laughable they produced the weather ballon story, when they realised they had made a big mistake.

 

[Aaron LeClair]

I think you have to be be very stupid to mistake a weather ballon for a flying disk, dont you think?
I still dont know what happened at Roswell? But why issue a press release stateing that they had a flying disk in the first place, it doesnt seem logical considering the time period.


Plus reports suggust the wreckage was spread out for miles, how big was the ballon lol. It rather laughable they produced the weather ballon story, when they realised they had made a big mistake.

Mogul was a series of many large balloons not just one.

 

[Kieran]

Mogul was a series of many large balloons not just one.

A series of balloons how many to be exact Arron do you have any insight. Like the reports stated that this was wreckage, and that it was spread out for miles.

Like i believe when balloons impact the ground they dont shatter into many pieces, due to makeup of what a balloon is made of. Hope you are getting my meaning here in what i am saying?

Also i watched a documentary a while back where the Roswell case was being talked about.Maybe somebody can verify this story?, according to one of the people talking in the documentary.He siad on the night of the Roswell crash, the local undertaker or mortician recieved a phone call from the Roswell army base requesting or enquireing from him, would he have many child like caskets available, and if so could he deliver them to the base. Which i believe he did, and there was a further story after that which i wouldnt go into.

What i find strange if true? why request childlike caskets? I dont think the caskets where filled with mogul balloon wreckage lol or dummies which is the latest theory given by the military.

The balloon theory has too many errors. I still dont know what happened in Roswell during the period of 1947. But it definately was'nt a weather balloon or a secret balloon project called mogul.

 

[Aaron LeClair]

A series of balloons how many to be exact Arron do you have any insight. Like the reports stated that this was wreckage, and that it was spread out for miles.

Like i believe when balloons impact the ground they dont shatter into many pieces, due to makeup of what a balloon is made of. Hope you are getting my meaning here in what i am saying?

Also i watched a documentary a while back where the Roswell case was being talked about.Maybe somebody can verify this story?, according to one of the people talking in the documentary.He siad on the night of the Roswell crash, the local undertaker or mortician recieved a phone call from the Roswell army base requesting or enquireing from him, would he have many child like caskets available, and if so could he deliver them to the base. Which i believe he did, and there was a further story after that which i wouldnt go into.

What i find strange if true? why request childlike caskets? I dont think the caskets where filled with mogul balloon wreckage lol or dummies which is the latest theory given by the military.

The balloon theory has too many errors. I still dont know what happened in Roswell during the period of 1947. But it definately was'nt a weather balloon or a secret balloon project called mogul.

Here's a link that might interest you.
Project Mogul

Flight 4 had reportedly 28 balloons.

Glen Dennis isn't considered credible these days. His story has changed many times, and there's a financial bias with him these days being involved in the Museum. He's where the small caskets come from.

I don't know what happened near Roswell either.

 

[Hoffmeister]

Firstly with regards to the wreckage: I think it actually works in favour of the mogul theory that the wreckage was found over such a large area.
Mogul's were huge, if i remember correctly (and i could be wrong) the mogul balloons were around 600 ft long, or something similar.
If one of these babies crashed in the desert it would take up a large area.

As far as we know, the disks are nowhere near a mile long, they are comparatively small, maybe 20-100 ft in diameter.
Also, two things spring to mind when talking about the disk theory:

1. Firstly, if they found random bits of metal and "balsa wood like material", how did they know it was a disk?. In mean if you find a wreckage of stuff on the floor spread over 1 mile, it seems like a big leap to decide on the spot that its a flying disk.
2. If the material found was unbreakable like in the description, you would expect the disk to stay reasonably in tact when it crashed. even if it broke you would find circular bits of the disk surely, yet all the acounts talk about is straight bits of metal and tin foil like items

Regarding witness statements that people suddenly decided to talk about years later, i think all of these should be thrown out straight away when considering the evidence because not only do the "witnesses" have alterior motives (i.e. jumping on the roswell bandwagon) but also memory after so many years can easily be distorted.
UFOlogists always go on about how photographic and witness evidence is used in court so why isnt it valid in ufology, but i am pretty sure if any of these roswell witnesses were used in court years after the incident, and with alterior motives, they would be shot to pieces in seconds.

I am not trying to be riteous here, and i fully appreciate Aarons point of view, but i really think that the roswell case is more straight forward than it appears to be.
If the Roswell case did have to go to a court, and i were the prosecution against the crashed disk theory, I would definately focus on Jesse Marcel.

forget all the other peple that jumped on the band wagon afterwards, it was the initial identification, or mis-identification that is key here and i think there is a pretty high chance that the people who said it was a crashed ET vehicle got it wrong.

I fully understand that people will probably bash me for this way of thinking... but hey, thats the way i think

 

[Kieran]

Firstly with regards to the wreckage: I think it actually works in favour of the mogul theory that the wreckage was found over such a large area.
Mogul's were huge, if i remember correctly (and i could be wrong) the mogul balloons were around 600 ft long, or something similar.
If one of these babies crashed in the desert it would take up a large area.

As far as we know, the disks are nowhere near a mile long, they are comparatively small, maybe 20-100 ft in diameter.

Also, two things spring to mind when talking about the disk theory:

1. Firstly, if they found random bits of metal and "balsa wood like material", how did they know it was a disk?. In mean if you find a wreckage of stuff on the floor spread over 1 mile, it seems like a big leap to decide on the spot that its a flying disk.
2. If the material found was unbreakable like in the description, you would expect the disk to stay reasonably in tact when it crashed. even if it broke you would find circular bits of the disk surely, yet all the acounts talk about is straight bits of metal and tin foil like items

Regarding witness statements that people suddenly decided to talk about years later, i think all of these should be thrown out straight away when considering the evidence because not only do the "witnesses" have alterior motives (i.e. jumping on the roswell bandwagon) but also memory after so many years can easily be distorted.
UFOlogists always go on about how photographic and witness evidence is used in court so why isnt it valid in ufology, but i am pretty sure if any of these roswell witnesses were used in court years after the incident, and with alterior motives, they would be shot to pieces in seconds.

I am not trying to be riteous here, and i fully appreciate Aarons point of view, but i really think that the roswell case is more straight forward than it appears to be.
If the Roswell case did have to go to a court, and i were the prosecution against the crashed disk theory, I would definately focus on Jesse Marcel.

forget all the other peple that jumped on the band wagon afterwards, it was the initial identification, or mis-identification that is key here and i think there is a pretty high chance that the people who said it was a crashed ET vehicle got it wrong.

I fully understand that people will probably bash me for this way of thinking... but hey, thats the way i think

Ya by that, you could say that nobody can be trusted be what they tell us, if they could'nt produce evidence to back up there claims. Yes the mogul balloon theory looks good on paper, and it really does seem to fit as being a plausible reason for the Roswell case.

But i come back to it again. Why tell the American people at all in the first place that you had captured a flying disc. Was it a sick joke similar to the orsan wells sage war of the worlds. Where people actually believed a really ufo attack was happening?

 

[Hoffmeister]

Because the wreckage was identified the Jesse and one other person (i forget who) and they straight away gave out the report to the local radio before checking with anyone.
from what i know, it wasnt a situation where the government had spent time identifying the wreckage closely for a long periodf of time, determining it was a disk and then giving the report to the press.
Basicaly, Jesse identified or misidentified (depending on how you look at it) the wreckage and went straight to the local press, it wasnt nessecarily some government conspiracy.
Very few people had even seen the wreckage by this point from what i know.

So was Jesse trained to identify flying disks?
Some might say you don;t have to be a genius to work out the difference but i go back to the description of the wreckage, random bits of metal and balsa wood like material, not a disk.
Also it was during the height of the first major USA UFO wave..

 

[Kieran]

Because the wreckage was identified the Jesse and one other person (i forget who) and they straight away gave out the report to the local radio before checking with anyone.
from what i know, it wasnt a situation where the government had spent time identifying the wreckage closely for a long periodf of time, determining it was a disk and then giving the report to the press.
Basicaly, Jesse identified or misidentified (depending on how you look at it) the wreckage and went straight to the local press, it wasnt nessecarily some government conspiracy.
Very few people had even seen the wreckage by this point from what i know.

So was Jesse trained to identify flying disks?
Some might say you don;t have to be a genius to work out the difference but i go back to the description of the wreckage, random bits of metal and balsa wood like material, not a disk.
Also it was during the height of the first major USA UFO wave..

I dont know to be honest if it was a balloon. But the evidence still points for it to be something else, other than a weather ballon. Reports suggest the base was on full alert? I Doubt a weather balloon would cause should a stir?

I really cant believe people would mistake a weather balloon as being a flying disc, i just cant hoff. Give me a better reason than a weather balloon. A secret project developing a prototype plane for eg...i could understand that.

 

[Kieran]

Firstly with regards to the wreckage: I think it actually works in favour of the mogul theory that the wreckage was found over such a large area.
Mogul's were huge, if i remember correctly (and i could be wrong) the mogul balloons were around 600 ft long, or something similar.
If one of these babies crashed in the desert it would take up a large area.

As far as we know, the disks are nowhere near a mile long, they are comparatively small, maybe 20-100 ft in diameter.

Also, two things spring to mind when talking about the disk theory:

1. Firstly, if they found random bits of metal and "balsa wood like material", how did they know it was a disk?. In mean if you find a wreckage of stuff on the floor spread over 1 mile, it seems like a big leap to decide on the spot that its a flying disk.
2. If the material found was unbreakable like in the description, you would expect the disk to stay reasonably in tact when it crashed. even if it broke you would find circular bits of the disk surely, yet all the acounts talk about is straight bits of metal and tin foil like items

Regarding witness statements that people suddenly decided to talk about years later, i think all of these should be thrown out straight away when considering the evidence because not only do the "witnesses" have alterior motives (i.e. jumping on the roswell bandwagon) but also memory after so many years can easily be distorted.
UFOlogists always go on about how photographic and witness evidence is used in court so why isnt it valid in ufology, but i am pretty sure if any of these roswell witnesses were used in court years after the incident, and with alterior motives, they would be shot to pieces in seconds.

I am not trying to be riteous here, and i fully appreciate Aarons point of view, but i really think that the roswell case is more straight forward than it appears to be.
If the Roswell case did have to go to a court, and i were the prosecution against the crashed disk theory, I would definately focus on Jesse Marcel.

forget all the other peple that jumped on the band wagon afterwards, it was the initial identification, or mis-identification that is key here and i think there is a pretty high chance that the people who said it was a crashed ET vehicle got it wrong.

I fully understand that people will probably bash me for this way of thinking... but hey, thats the way i think

The more i read your post the more i like it and i think you need to read it a couple of times to get a better understanding. Your points are very strong. When you focus really hard on all the facts of the case of Roswell, your theory becomes a strong one.

 

[fitzbew88]

Firstly with regards to the wreckage: I think it actually works in favour of the mogul theory that the wreckage was found over such a large area.
Mogul's were huge, if i remember correctly (and i could be wrong) the mogul balloons were around 600 ft long, or something similar.
If one of these babies crashed in the desert it would take up a large area.

As far as we know, the disks are nowhere near a mile long, they are comparatively small, maybe 20-100 ft in diameter.

The "disks" have been reported as small as a few feet across to giant-sized monstrous vehicles visible from miles and miles away.

No one saw the alleged Roswell craft in the air. So we can't draw any conclusions about potential debris fields.

...two things spring to mind when talking about the disk theory:

1. Firstly, if they found random bits of metal and "balsa wood like material", how did they know it was a disk?. In mean if you find a wreckage of stuff on the floor spread over 1 mile, it seems like a big leap to decide on the spot that its a flying disk.

I don't think Brazel had any idea what it was. I don't think he even knew about the UFO flap that had been going on since June. Whatever it was, it astounded him enough to go to a lot of effort to present it to the authorities.

I seem to recall one of his neighbors told him about the flap, and mentioned a possible reward. That might've provided him a lot of motivation.

1. If the material found was unbreakable like in the description, you would expect the disk to stay reasonably in tact when it crashed. even if it broke you would find circular bits of the disk surely, yet all the acounts talk about is straight bits of metal and tin foil like items

If we stipulate that it crashed, then we must accept the craft had some vulnerability. I don't think anyone at the scene or anyone proximate to the event had any way of determining if any piece of the debris was "unbreakable".

We can't say: It couldn't have been a paranormal craft crash because pieces of it were described as unbreakable.

We don't know if it was really unbreakable or what percentage of the structure might have been unbreakable. Maybe only the crew quarters was unbreakable, or only the matter/antimatter containment system.

Regarding witness statements that people suddenly decided to talk about years later, i think all of these should be thrown out straight away when considering the evidence because not only do the "witnesses" have alterior motives (i.e. jumping on the roswell bandwagon) but also memory after so many years can easily be distorted.

Unfortunately, this is the nature of historical research. I don't think we can afford to automatically discount witness testimony --- it's all we got.

UFOlogists always go on about how photographic and witness evidence is used in court so why isnt it valid in ufology, but i am pretty sure if any of these roswell witnesses were used in court years after the incident, and with alterior motives, they would be shot to pieces in seconds.

A lot of it has been shot to pieces in seconds.

It's the testimony that we haven't been able to shoot down that is causing such grief.

...i really think that the roswell case is more straight forward than it appears to be.
If the Roswell case did have to go to a court, and i were the prosecution against the crashed disk theory, I would definately focus on Jesse Marcel.

If he was still alive, I think we would.

...forget all the other peple that jumped on the band wagon afterwards, it was the initial identification, or mis-identification that is key here and i think there is a pretty high chance that the people who said it was a crashed ET vehicle got it wrong.

I like what you are saying here, but I don't agree with the "pretty high chance". My gut tells me: "some chance".

The root of my skepticism about the Roswell incident is based on the fact that over the next half-dozen years the USAF clearly didn't have a clue about what was going on and they desperately wanted to find out. If they had a crashed disk somewhere, I don't think there would've been such bafflement permeating all echelons of the Pentagon during that period.