But possibly being wrong that the subject has any basis in reality whatsoever is another matter. I've been in that mode of thinking lately and I gotta' say that seriously entertaining the notion that you may have been utterly full of shit about something so big for nearly two decades is a sickening feeling.
I don't think so. it's not really about the ego stuff. Its about being able to accept the body of evidence. I think that can be summed up like this.
1 - Radar tracks of non-transponder squawking aircraft with simultaneous and independent aerial and/or ground observation have happened. in many of these cases the flight characteristics have far exceeded the verifiable peak of known human technology. These cases can not be explained away as misidentifications or hallucinations.
2 - Simultaneous mass sightings have occurred.
3 - Secret military program hypothesis is starting stink. To me, saying that something is a a secret military technology carries no more weight than the ETH, IDH, TTH, CTH, or anything else. It is still undocumented, unverifiable, and equally as prone to over-exaggeration of capabilities and over-simplification of complex concepts used to describe it. How can such a complicated R&D process could go unnoticed? We hear no more reports of UFO's in war ravaged regions than we did before they were war ravaged. No correlation can be drawn to show a military explanation other than a ridiculous defense budget with a history of poor accountability. I think it far more likely to find crooks and embezzlers there than massive 50+ year R&D with little if any market advances. Also, with no real development milestones introduced into the civilian market in 50 years what is the incentive to keep what would undoubtedly be a huge resource siphon and money pit. You simply can not point to a single technology aerospace related and show me reasonably how it could have been derived from such a Deep Black program.
4 - Good physical trace evidence has been found and documented. Some truly anomalous stuff with only two explanations possible, Hoax or an honest encounter with something very anomalous.
5 - Public intuition. I know, this is a flimsy one. BUT.... many polls have confirmed that the majority of people willing to take polls believe that there is something to the UFO phenomenon. We should not simply ignore or trivialize that fact. Anyway, it's like trying to find a Star Trek fan. That franchise is one of the most successful in all of hollywood history. Its very dialog are nor irreversibly inserted into the popular lexicon of western society.... and yet I can hardly find 3 in 10 that admit to liking it. The O'Hare case generated more hits than anything before it. Aliens and UFO's are a popular subject in both novels and in Hollywood. Publicly scoff and privately ponder. That seems to be the society rank and file modus operandi.
6 - Good hoaxes are hard to pull off. They are nearly always found out in some way. It is hard to tell a lie and not get caught when a bunch of scrutiny is applied. If nothing else real hoaxes are suspected as being such. For instance, the Romanek case was suspected as a hoax but the Stephenville case was not.
7 - Eye witness testimony is good enough to suggest that the phenomenon is real and probably fits within the general parameters repeatedly given. Many millions of people have seen these things and reported them. until you show me a study proving that humans are poor observers of aerial phenomenon I will think otherwise. I know that humans are able to perceive motion very accurately. Evolution has given us that and the ability to readily identify an irregularity. Those studies have been done, lab tested, and scientifically verified. Simply stating that it is "probably" a misidentification and then pulling the "humans are bad observers" argument out wont cut it. Show me the research.
Thats it really. More than enough to say the phenomenon is worth serious study wouldn't you say? The problem with Ufology is the same as in other area of research. If you ask the wrong questions you will get the wrong answers. We concern ourselves too much with the wrong focus. Origin hypothesis, finding exotic substances, analyzing grainy or distorted images/video, {insert next waste of time here}. We need to be looking at the data we can acquire and data we can cross reference with seemingly unrelated and related data alike. Once we have the accumulated data then an honest analysis would need to be undertaken.
Therein lies the real issue. Mainstream science has already turned up its nose in no small part due to the interpersonal antics and fraud peddlers that are far too common in ufology. What does it all mean? Hell if I know, I havnt got that far yet. But I do know that there is something worth investigating.
Anyway, if you are still reading this then thanks. Sorry for the diatribe.
For a much more eloquent assessment on the question read what Paul Kimball wrote about Richard Dolans book. It says all you need to know more coherently than my ramblings can offer.
The Other Side of Truth: UFOs and the National Security State, Vol. II