What World Under Climate Change

[Tyger]

Please remember that the caveat applies: SOTT assembles these videos as supporting their view that we are at the so-called End-Of-Times. I do not subscribe to the supposition but find the video assemblages intriguing for other reasons.

What would better serve this thread's purpose would be an assemblage of world-wide facts regarding world-wide climatic conditions, but that I have not found.

The added last comment by SOTT is interesting - that they are finding the events increasing and happening simultaneously. If so, that alone would be worthy of a video analysis.

SOTT Earth Changes Summary - August 2015: Extreme Weather, Planetary Upheaval, Meteor Fireballs

TEXT: "Published on Sep 6, 2015: SOTT 'Earth Changes' video summary of extreme weather events and environmental indicators of 'planetary upheaval' (seismic, volcanic, etc) in August 2015. *

"August 2015 saw apocalyptic deluges of rain and hail inundating cities from China to the US, intense electrical storms frying power grids and damaging infrastructure, and unusually powerful storms destroying crops and inundating vast areas of inhabited regions.

"The most memorable event of the month was the series of massive explosions at Tianjin port in northeastern China. Although it's assumed that human error was to blame, the unusual scale of the event suggests that something 'out-of-the-ordinary' was involved. With 'Earth opening up' in so many ways - enormous sinkholes, multiple volcanic eruptions, increased seismic activity, pockets of gas exploding on beaches, geysers of methane and steam erupting on golf courses and in streets - we strongly suspect the Tianjin event was 'more of the same', only BIGGER.

"Last month, meteor fireballs turned night into day in Scandinavia, the UK, the US, Chile, and the Caribbean. Sinkholes swallowed people and streets in China, and portions of highways in the UK and US. Wildfires raged across southern Siberia. Hailstorms added two more passenger aircraft to their hit-list. Italy saw cars swept down streets in 'biblical' deluges, while three typhoons lined up in the Pacific for the first time in recorded history.

"The exponential increase in all phenomena - volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, meteors, sinkholes, floods, lightning strikes, exploding transformers and chemical plants - is well illustrated by US wildfire statistics. There are only 6 other years when more than 8 million acres burned in the US - 2012, 2011, 2007, 2006, 2005, and 2004. As of September 1st, 2015 is set to beat the record set of 9.8 million acres consumed in 2006...

"These were the signs of the times in August 2015.

ADDITIONAL NOTE MADE BY SOTT: "* Please note that due to planetary/climate chaos increasing month by month, we are now inundated with video footage and must therefore be selective about which events to include. Going forwards, please consider these video summaries a mere snapshot of the global picture. Considering that these 'localized' events, multiplied many times over, are occurring simultaneously all over the planet, the scale of destruction and impact on people's lives becomes almost unimaginable."

 

[Tyger]

Scientists say California hasn’t been this dry in 500 years ~ September 14, 2015
LINK: Scientists say California hasn’t been this dry in 500 years

TEXT: "Researchers knew California’s drought was already a record breaker when they set out to find its exact place in history, but they were surprised by what they discovered: It has been 500 years since what is now the Golden State has been this dry.

"California is in the fourth year of a severe drought with temperatures so high and precipitation so low that rain and snow evaporate almost as soon as they hit the ground. A research paper released Monday said an analysis of blue oak tree rings in the state’s Central Valley showed that the amount of mountain snow California relies on for moisture hasn’t been so low since the 1500s. That was around the time when European explorers landed in what became San Diego, when Columbus set off on a final voyage to the Caribbean, when King Henry VIII was alive.

"A team of researchers embarked on the study in April when state officials announced they had found “no snow whatsoever” in the Sierra Nevada mountains for the first time in 75 years of measuring. The research showed the level of snowpack is actually the lowest it has been in five centuries. Mountain snowpack provides 30 percent of California’s annual water supply when it melts and flows to rivers, streams, lakes and reservoirs. Across the state, the levels of water in those bodies are nearing historic lows. “The results were astonishing,” Valerie Trouet, an associate professor at the University of Arizona who was a senior author for the study published in the journal Nature. “We knew it was an all-time low over a historical period, but to see this as a low for the last 500 years, we didn’t expect that. There’s very little doubt about it.”

[Global warming worsened the California drought, scientists say]

"In a statement, Nature said the “findings highlight the critical condition” of California’s reservoirs and groundwater, where water the state needs for municipalities and agriculture is stored. Both of those sources are slowly being drained, with little precipitation to replenish the rivers and lakes that supply them.

"The small amount of moisture stored in plants and the soil is quickly evaporating into the state’s dry atmosphere, exposing the parched ground to lightning strikes that spark wildfires. California has experienced about a thousand more wildfires this fire season compared to last, including two that are currently raging in the northern part of the state. California is having its “second-busiest season in a decade,” said Stanton Florea, a spokesman for the Forest Service’s Pacific Southwest Region, which manages 21 million acres of wildlands in California.

"In April, Gov. Jerry Brown (D) ordered the state’s first mandatory water cut for metropolitan areas. He announced the restriction from a dry patch of grass in the Sierra Nevada near Lake Tahoe that normally would have been wet from melting snow. Since that day, the state’s 400 water utilities have implemented water cuts of up to 35 percent in some areas, and farmers who long enjoyed the right to freely take water from rivers to water crops and hydrate livestock gave up a quarter of those rights for fear that the state would restrict them even more. Federal and state officials have used convoys to truck salmon and other fish from one part of the state to another, fearing a mass die-off if they tried to migrate to the Pacific Ocean in rivers that are abnormally low and completely dry in places.

[10 animals that will disappear with Western sagebrush]

"And the news keeps getting worse. A study by scientists at NASA and Columbia University said California was one of several states in the Southwest facing a mega-drought that could last up to 30 years if greenhouse gas emissions are not dramatically curtailed by 2050. A study by scientists at Stanford University said a future of more-frequent drought in California is a near certainty because temperatures are increasing at a time when precipitation rates are steady, allowing heat to overwhelm the moisture. And another Columbia study said California’s current drought is part of a natural pattern, but human-caused climate change has made it significantly worse.

"The Columbia study analyzed month-to-month climate data between 1901 and 2014 to find fluctuations in precipitation, wind, temperature and humidity. It said average temperatures in California have increased by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit over 113 years. And, starting in the 1960s, heat increased with the introduction of more greenhouse gases from automobiles and other sources. “When greenhouse gases accumulate, it’s like a bully showing up at your door to demand that you give it more and more every year,” said the study’s lead author, Park Williams, a bio-climatologist at Columbia University’s Earth Science Institute. In California, that meant more moisture evaporated from rain and from groundwater sprayed on crops in farming regions such as the Central Valley. Thursday’s study “confirms the same message” of the earlier studies, and supports their warnings about the impacts of climate change, Trouet said. “It’s dry. We’re not just confirming, we’re refining.”

"The historic nature of the current drought was well known, but how it ranked over time was not. When Trouet and her team learned in April that snowpack that usually supplies 30 percent of the California’s potable water each year was so low, “we realized we had the data from previous research to put this into context for the longer term,” she said. What they didn’t have were fresh tree samples, so Stahle of Arkansas traveled to the Central Valley and extracted a core sample from blue oak trees. Blue oaks love winter rain, and their tree rings express it with wide bands. Low periods of moisture result in narrow bands. “It’s like a bar code,” said Trouet.

"Blue oaks in the valley are a long way from the Sierra Nevada mountains in the northern part of the state, but the same weather systems that supply rain to the low elevations where they stand result in snow in high mountain elevations. Analyzing the new core samples and others taken in previous years, the scientists didn’t observe rings as narrow at low elevations as today’s until a period that dated from the 1500s. “We looked at the past 500 years,” Trouet said. “This is the most extreme. It doesn’t mean this won’t happen again for another 500 years. It’s likely that this will happen more often in the future because of the low amount of precipitation combined with higher temperatures makes it likely that they will occur together more often, causing droughts.” "


​

 

[Tyger]

Why scientists are so worried about drylands — which make up 40 percent of the Earth’s land
~ September 14, 2015
LINK: Why scientists are so worried about drylands — which make up 40 percent of the Earth’s land

TEXT: "Virtually every ecosystem of the world — from forests to the oceans — raises concern about the toll that a warming climate will take. There’s one type of landscape, though, that doesn’t get talked about very much in this context — so-called “drylands,” a grouping that includes arid and semi-arid regions ranging from many deserts to grasslands.

"Drylands are one of the more important ecosystems in the world, comprising fully 40 percent of the Earth’s land surface. And now, an alarming new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences says the impact of a warming climate on these ecosystems could be much worse than expected — comparable to humans trampling the landscapes underfoot or driving off-road vehicles across them. “Contrary to our expectations, experimental climate change and physical disturbance had strikingly similar impacts,” wrote the researchers, led by Scott Ferrenberg of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Southwest Biological Science Center in Moab, Utah. Ferrenberg conducted the work with two Geological Survey colleagues.

"Ferrenberg and his colleagues ran a long term experiment at Utah’s Upper Colorado Plateau, a “cool desert” region that receives less than 10 inches of rain per year. Here, the ground is covered by a complex group of organisms collectively called “biocrust” — a combination of mosses and lichens that are in effect glued together by photosynthetic microorganisms called cyanobacteria, which provide structure to the landscape through the carbohydrate molecules they secrete. This structure, in turn, allows the more complex organisms like mosses and lichens to grow — and when it’s all assembled, the biocrust then holds the soil in place and prevents dust storms and erosion. “Things would blow away without biocrust,” says Ferrenberg. “There’s sort of this expression the crust community uses: ‘Got dust? You need crust,’” he continues. “It’s sort of a nerd joke in this community.”

"At the same time, the growth of mosses and lichen, supported by the cyanobacteria, allows these landscapes to store a considerable amount of carbon which might otherwise wind up in the atmosphere. Overall, drylands store 25 percent of the carbon found in the planet’s soils.

"A desert landscape like the Upper Colorado Plateau, however, is highly vulnerable to destruction if humans or livestock tread across it or especially if vehicles tear it up. And if that happens enough, then not only are dust storms more likely to blow up the loose sand, but there will be less storing of carbon and the ecosystem may be set up for what researchers call “succession” — transition into a more extreme desertified state, without as many lichens or mosses and with only cyanobacteria hanging on.

"So what does climate change add to this dynamic? To find out, the researchers conducted a long term experiment in which plots of Colorado Plateau biocrust were subjected to either 10 years of warmer temperatures or more rainfall, or 15 years of literal human trampling. In the climate change scenario, plots of ground were continually warmed by infrared heaters several degrees Celsius above the temperature surrounding them. In the stomping scenario, by contrast, a team of volunteers walked heel to toe, twice, across a plot of land — once per year for 15 years.

"The researchers found that in all cases, the effect was more or less the same — a severe blow to the lichens and mosses of the community, leaving behind only the algae or “cyanobacteria,” which proceeded to show an increase that the researchers called “dramatic.” For instance, while algae made up 81 percent of the biocrust community prior to human trampling, afterward it made up 99 percent. Warmer temperatures had a similar effect. “We were really surprised,” said Ferrenberg. “We know that walking on them or driving on them kills them. We were really surprised that giving them a bit of extra heat would kill them, and it did.”

"The researchers proceeded to observe that while you can protect drylands from humans, vehicles, or livestock — at least to an extent — you can’t switch off global warming. “The effects of warming described here are a great cause for concern, as increasing annual temperatures are a near certainty across dryland ecosystems,” they wrote. The experiment only looked at one dryland ecosystem, but according to the researchers, biocrust is prevalent in drylands across the globe. “We think this heralds pretty bad news for biocrusts on a global scale,” Ferrenberg said. And if that’s right, then it doesn’t just mean drylands may not hold in as much carbon any more (which means more of it goes to the atmosphere). It also means they may produce worse dust storms in the future.

"So, no, drylands and biocrusts don’t get a lot of attention. But maybe now you can see why, in their paper, the researchers use words like “disconcerting” and “alarmingly” to describe what could happen to them."​

 

[Tyger]

Yes! It RAINED in LA today!!!!!!! A bit more than in the below video, but......lots of fun.

When It Rains In L.A.

TEXT: "Published on Sep 15, 2015: NO ONE GO OUTSIDE."

 

[Tyger]

It's mind-boggling - China and India are the largest countries in that order: 1.4 billion and 1.2 billion respectively. The USA is the 3rd largest at 3.2 million. We don't come close. Russia is at 1.4 million. Only Brazil and Nigeria (along with the US and Russia) are the non-Asian countries in the top 10. All the rest are in Asia. The sheer scale of Asia in numbers is startling. Interestingly, the growth rate is slowing. It will take 200 years for our population to double again.

After the exponential growth in population over the last 100 years and last few decades, the growth rate is slowing and it is projected that we will take 200 years to double our population from her on out. I'm sure there are reasons given in the literature, but my favorite personal view is that as the population gets more current with modern luxuries of life, that prompts the population to decline. I base this on some Anthropology studies that were done in Turkey many decades ago, correlating population decline in an urban situation with the introduction of indoor plumbing: the side of the city that had no indoor plumbing had continued population growth; the side of the city that had indoor plumbing introduced experienced a halt in population growth.

TEXT: "At the dawn of agriculture, about 8000 B.C., the population of the world was approximately 5 million. Over the 8,000-year period up to 1 A.D. it grew to 200 million (some estimate 300 million or even 600, suggesting how imprecise population estimates of early historical periods can be), with a growth rate of under 0.05% per year.

"A tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), and the fifth billion in only 13 years (1987).

• During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion.
• In 1970, there were roughly half as many people in the world as there are now.
• Because of declining growth rates, it will now take over 200 years to double again.

Current World Population Counter
LINK: World Population Clock: 7.3 Billion People (2015) - Worldometers

 

[Tyger]

This Tower Purifies a Million Cubic Feet of Air an Hour ~ September 18, 2015
LINK: This Tower Purifies a Million Cubic Feet of Air an Hour

TEXT: "THERE’S A MASSIVE vacuum cleaner in the middle of a Rotterdam park and it’s sucking all the smog out of the air. A decent portion of it, anyway. And it isn’t a vacuum, exactly. It looks nothing like a Dyson or a Hoover. It’s probably more accurate to describe it as the world’s largest air purifier.

"The Smog Free Tower, as it’s called, is a collaboration between Dutch designer Daan Roosegaarde, Delft Technology University researcher Bob Ursem, and European Nano Solutions, a green tech company in the Netherlands. The metal tower, nearly 23 feet tall, can purify up to 1 million cubic feet of air every hour. To put that in perspective, the Smog Free Tower would need just 10 hours to purify enough air to fill Madison Square Garden. “When this baby is up and running for the day you can clean a small neighborhood,” says Roosegaarde.

"It does this by ionizing airborne smog particles. Particles smaller than 10 micrometers in diameter (about the width of a cotton fiber) are tiny enough to inhale and can be harmful to the heart and lungs. Ursem, who has been researching ionization since the early 2000s, says a radial ventilation system at the top of the tower (powered by wind energy) draws in dirty air, which enters a chamber where particles smaller than 15 micrometers are given a positive charge. Like iron shavings drawn to a magnet, the the positively charged particles attach themselves to a grounded counter electrode in the chamber. The clean air is then expelled through vents in the lower part of the tower, surrounding the structure in a bubble of clean air. Ursem notes that this process doesn’t produce ozone, like many other ionic air purifiers, because the particles are charged with positive voltage rather than a negative. “The proposed technology, while not new, would need to be well demonstrated on a large scale in a highly polluted urban area,” says Eileen McCauley, a manager in the California Air Resources Board’s research division. She adds that there are concerns around efficacy and logistics like how often something like this would need to be cleaned. But Ursem himself has used the same technique in hospital purification systems, parking garages, and along roadsides. Still the tower is by far the biggest and prettiest application of his technology.

"Indeed, it’s meant to be a design object as much as a technological innovation. Roosegaarde is known for wacky, socially conscious design projects—he’s the same guy who did the glowing Smart Highway in the Netherlands. He says making the tower beautiful brings widespread attention to a problem typically hidden behind bureaucracy. “I’m tired of design being about chairs, tables, lamps, new cars, and new watches,” he says. “It’s boring, we have enough of this stuff. Let’s focus on the real issues in life.”

"Roosegaarde has been working with Ursem and ENS, the company that fabricated the tower, for two years to bring it into existence, and now that it’s up and running, he says people are intrigued. He just returned from Mumbai where he spoke to city officials about installing a similar tower in a park, and officials in Mexico City, Paris, and Beijing (the smoggy city that inspired the project) also are interested. “We’ve gotten a lot of requests from property developers who want to place it in a few filthy rich neighborhoods of course, and I tend to say no to these right now,” he says. “I think that it should be in a public space.”

"Roosegaarde has plans to take the tower on a “smog-free tour” in the coming year so he can demonstrate the tower’s abilities in cities around the world. It’s a little bit of showmanship that he hopes will garner even more attention for the machine, which he calls a “shrine-like temple of clean air.” Roosegaarde admits that his tower isn’t a final solution for cleaning a city’s air. “The real solution everybody knows,” he says, adding that it’s more systematic than clearing a hole of clean air in the sky. He views the Smog Free tower as an initial step in a bottom-up approach to cleaner air, with citizens acting as the driving force. “How can we create a city where in 10 years these towers aren’t necessary anymore?” he says. “This is the bridge towards the solution.” "​

 

[Tyger]

Incredible Side-by-Side Photos of Alaska Show Severity of Global Warming ~ September 2, 2015
LINK: Incredible Side-by-Side Photos of Alaska Show Severity of Global Warming

Vanishing glaciers of Alaska
LINK: Melting glaciers of Alaska

 

[Tyger]

This ain't no kiddin', folks! Just a study, not 100% agreement at this juncture but cause to stop and consider.

Why some scientists are worried about a surprisingly cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean
LINK: Why some scientists are worried about a surprisingly cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean

TEXT: "It is, for our home planet, an extremely warm year. Indeed, last week we learned from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that the first eight months of 2015 were the hottest such stretch yet recorded for the globe’s surface land and oceans, based on temperature records going to 1880. It’s just the latest evidence that we are, indeed, on course for a record-breaking warm year in 2015.

"Yet, if you look closely, there’s one part of the planet that is bucking the trend. In the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and Iceland, the ocean surface has seen very cold temperatures for the past eight months. What’s up with that? First of all, it’s no error. I checked with Deke Arndt, chief of the climate monitoring branch at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, who confirmed what the map above suggests — some parts of the North Atlantic Ocean saw record cold in the past eight months. As Arndt put it by email:

'For the grid boxes in darkest blue, they had their coldest Jan-Aug on record, and in order for a grid box to be “eligible” for that map, it needs at least 80 years of Jan-Aug values on the record.'​

"Those grid boxes encompass the region from “20W to 40W and from 55N to 60N,” Arndt explained. And there’s not much reason to doubt the measurements — the region is very well sampled. “It’s pretty densely populated by buoys, and at least parts of that region are really active shipping lanes, so there’s quite a lot of observations in the area,” Arndt said. “So I think it’s pretty robust analysis.”

"Thus, the record seems to be a meaningful one — and there is a much larger surrounding area that, although not absolutely the coldest it has been on record, is also unusually cold. At this point, it’s time to ask what the heck is going on here. And while there may not yet be any scientific consensus on the matter, at least some scientists suspect that the cooling seen in these maps is no fluke but, rather, part of a process that has been long feared by climate researchers — the slowing of Atlantic Ocean circulation.

"In March, several top climate scientists, including Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Michael Mann of Penn State, published a paper in Nature Climate Change suggesting that the gigantic ocean current known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, is weakening. It’s sometimes confused with the “Gulf Stream,” but, in fact, that’s just a southern branch of it.

"The current is driven by differences in the temperature and salinity of ocean water (for a more thorough explanation, see here). In essence, cold salty water in the North Atlantic sinks because it is more dense, and warmer water from farther south moves northward to take its place, carrying tremendous heat energy along the way. But a large injection of cold, fresh water can, theoretically, mess it all up — preventing the sinking that would otherwise occur and, thus, weakening the circulation. In the Nature Climate Change paper, the researchers suggested that this source of freshwater is the melting of Greenland, which is now losing more than a hundred billion tons of ice each year. I asked Mann and Rahmstorf to comment on the blue spot on the map above by e-mail. Here’s what Mann had to say:

'I was formerly somewhat skeptical about the notion that the ocean “conveyor belt” circulation pattern could weaken abruptly in response to global warming. Yet this now appears to be underway, as we showed in a recent article, and as we now appear to be witnessing before our very eyes in the form of an anomalous blob of cold water in the sup-polar North Atlantic.'​

"Rahmstorf also commented as follows:

'The fact that a record-hot planet Earth coincides with a record-cold northern Atlantic is quite stunning. There is strong evidence — not just from our study — that this is a consequence of the long-term decline of the Gulf Stream System, i.e. the Atlantic ocean’s overturning circulation AMOC, in response to global warming.'​

"I also asked Rahmstorf whether, if his thinking is right, we should expect this cold patch to become a permanent feature of temperature maps, even as the world continues to warm. His answer was complex, but not anything that gives you much reassurance:

'The short term variations will at some point also go the other way again, so I don’t expect the subpolar Atlantic to remain at record cold permanently. But I do expect the AMOC to decline further in the coming decades. The accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet will continue to contribute to this decline by diluting the ocean waters.'​

"Granted, it’s not clear that all climate scientists agree with this interpretation of what’s happening in the North Atlantic — but clearly some important ones do, and they have published their conclusions in an influential journal. The longer the situation continues, the more it is likely to attract attention. But it has already been around for a while. “It’s been really persistent over the last year and a half or so,” NOAA’s Arndt says.

"Indeed, I spoke with Rahmstorf previously about the cold patch in the North Atlantic in March, when his study came out — and when a NOAA temperature chart for December 2014 through February 2015 also showed record cold in this area. As Rahmstorf wrote back then, “The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled.” Since then, the trend appears to have only continued.

"So in sum, if Mann and Rahmstorf are right, a slowing of Atlantic Ocean circulation could be beginning, and even leaving a temperature signature for all to see. This won’t lead to anything remotely like The Day After Tomorrow (which was indeed based — quite loosely — on precisely this climate scenario). But if the trend continues, there could be many consequences, including rising seas for the U.S. East Coast and, possibly, a difference in temperature overall in the North Atlantic and Europe.

"So on future climate maps, even as we rack up more hot months and years, we’d better watch the North Atlantic closely."​

 

[Tyger]

Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the oceans — with potentially dire consequences
LINK: Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the oceans — with potentially dire consequences

TEXT: "Welcome to this week’s installment of “Don’t Mess with Geophysics.” Last week, we learned about the possible destabilization of the Totten Glacier of East Antarctica, which could unleash over 11 feet of sea level rise in coming centuries.

"And now this week brings news of another potential mega-scale perturbation. According to a new study just out in Nature Climate Changeby Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a group of co-authors, we’re now seeing a slowdown of the great ocean circulation that, among other planetary roles, helps to partly drive the Gulf Stream off the U.S. east coast. The consequences could be dire – including significant extra sea level rise for coastal cities like New York and Boston.

"A vast, powerful, and warm current, the Gulf Stream transports more water than “all the world’s rivers combined,” according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But it’s just one part of a larger regional ocean conveyor system — scientists technically call it the “Atlantic meridional overturning circulation” — which, in turn, is just one part of the larger global “thermohaline” circulation (“thermohaline” conjoins terms meaning “temperature” and “salty”).

"For the whole system, a key driver occurs in the North Atlantic ocean. Here, the warm Gulf Stream flows northward into cooler waters and splits into what is called the North Atlantic Current. This stream flows still further toward northern latitudes — until it reaches points where colder, salty water sinks due to its greater density, and then travels back southward at depth. This “overturning circulation” plays a major role in the climate because it brings warm water northward, thereby helping to warm Europe’s climate, and also sends cold water back towards the tropics. Here’s a helpful visualization, from Rahmstorf and the Potsdam Institute, of how it works:

wonderful video from NASA that visualizes the thermohaline circulation for the entire globe. Rahmstorf also has a blog post up at RealClimate.org explaining his research.

"The day after fiction

"The system above has a key vulnerability. What keeps everything churning in the North Atlantic is the fact that cold salt water is more dense than warm water — so it sinks. However, if too much ice melts in the region — from, say Greenland — a freshening of the cold salt water could occur. If the water is less salty it will also be less dense, reducing its tendency to sink below the surface.

"This could slow or even eventually shut down the circulation. In the scientifically panned 2004 blockbuster film “The Day After Tomorrow,” it is precisely such a shutdown that triggers a New Ice Age, and utter global disaster and chaos. That’s not going to happen, say scientists. Not remotely.

"Nonetheless, the new research finds that global warming does indeed seem to be slowing down the circulation. And while hardly catastrophic, that can’t be good news. Among the very real effects, notes the Potsdam Institute’s Rahmstorf, could be a possible increase in U.S. sea level if the whole circulation were to break down — which would be seriously bad news for cities like New York and Boston.

"The study uses a reconstruction of sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic to find that starting in around 1970 or 1975, the overturning circulation started to weaken — an event likely triggered by an unusual amount of sea ice traveling out of the Arctic ocean, melting, and causing freshening. The circulation then started to recover in the 1990s, but “it seems this was only a temporary recovery, and now it’s actually further weakened,” says Rahmstorf.

"The hypothesized reason for further declines presented by the paper is that the massive Greenland ice sheet may now be losing enough freshwater due to melting to weaken the circulation. And indeed, it appears that a particular ocean region of the North Atlantic south of Greenland and between Canada and Britain is becoming colder — an indicator of less northward heat transport. [See article in above post]

"Rahmstorf points to a recent release by the National Climatic Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, finding that the winter of December 2014 through February 2015 was the warmest on record for the globe as a whole. However, there were several anomalies — not just a cold winter for the eastern U.S., but also record cold temperatures in the middle of the North Atlantic: “These new NOAA data got me quite worried because they indicate that this partial recovery that we describe in the paper was only temporary, and the circulation is on the way down again,” says Rahmstorf.

"So far, the study finds, we’re looking at a circulation that’s about 15 to 20 percent weaker. That may not sound like much, but the paper suggests a weakening this strong has not happened at any time since the year 900. Moreover, this is already more weakening than scientifically expected — and could be the beginning of a further slowdown that could have great consequences.

"The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in 2013, said it was “very likely” that the Atlantic overturning circulation would weaken over the course of this century, but gave a gigantic range of from 1 to 54 percent, with best estimates at 11 and 34 percent. We’re already in that window, suggests the new study, and it’s only 2015. So what would happen if the circulation weakens even more substantially or even shuts down?

"Why the U.S. suffers from a Gulf Stream system slowdown

"One thing that will not happen from a shutdown of the circulation is a sudden, dramatic freezing of Europe. It will certainly cool, relative to a world in which the circulation remains robust — but that will be offset by rising average temperatures due to global warming, says Rahmstorf. The “Day After Tomorrow” scenario will not come to pass. However, there are many other effects, ranging from dramatic impacts on fisheries to, perhaps most troubling of all, the potential for extra sea level rise in the North Atlantic region.

"That may sound surprising, but here’s how it works. We’re starting out from a situation in which sea level is “anomalously low” off the U.S. east coast due to the motion of the Gulf Stream. This is for at least two reasons. First, explains Rahmstorf’s co-author Michael Mann of Penn State University, there’s the matter of temperature contrast: Waters to the right or east of the Gulf Stream, in the direction of Europe, are warmer than those on its left or west. Warm water expands and takes up more area than denser cold water, so sea level is also higher to the right side of the current, and lower off our coast. “So if you weaken the ‘Gulf Stream’ and weaken that temperature contrast…sea level off the U.S. east coast will actually rise!” explains Mann by e-mail.

"But there’s another factor, too, involving what is called the “geostrophic balance of forces” in the ocean. This gets wonky, but the bottom line result is that “sea surface slope perpendicular to any current flow, like the Gulf Stream, has a higher sea level on its right hand side, and the lower sea level on the left hand slide,” says Rahmstorf. (This would only be true in the northern hemisphere; in the southern it would be the opposite.) We’re on the left hand side of the Gulf Stream. So weaken the flow, and you also raise the sea level. (For further explanation, see here, here, and here.)

"Indeed, researchers recently found a sudden, 4-inch sea level rise of the U.S. East Coast in 2009 and 2010, which they attributed to a slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation. Rahmstorf says that “for a big breakdown of the circulation, [sea level rise] could amount to one meter, in addition to the global sea level rise that we’re expecting from global warming.”

"Shutting down the circulation would also almost certainly have effects on global weather — changing around major planetary heat transport processes tends to do that — though scientists don’t know yet what those would look like. So in sum: It appears that we’ve just seen yet another surprise from the climate system — and yet another process, like the melting of Antarctica, that seems to be happening faster than previously expected. And indeed, much like with that melting, the upshot if the trend continues is an especially bad sea level rise for the United States — the country more responsible than any other on Earth for the global warming that we’re currently experiencing."​

 

[Tyger]

This documentary was aired @ 2008. It is an interesting artifact to watch knowing what we know now, 7-8 years later, with 7-8 years more of experience in how things are changing. It can be hard to recall how swiftly events are moving because the changes have become the 'new normal'. The average global temperature has risen 1.53 degrees (from 0.8 degrees celsius in 2008 - according to the documentary) so we are well on our way to 2 degrees rise very shortly. The arctic has gone up 5 degrees. We now have a Northwest Passage, and so it goes. (The date 2035 keeps popping up, as it does in this documentary regarding some pivotal glaciers).

Four years after it aired the hurricane it predicted for NYC happened with Hurricane Sandy. As one poster states: "I was wondering how old this vid was , as now the fires are not so much in Australia, but all over the world, heat waves and fires in Alaska, Russia, Europe, tornadoes all over the world now, where they never were before, floods in the middle east, hail and snow as well. Our climate is changing fast!"

Poster: "We missed the 2015 date to begin reducing emissions, which was suggested by one of the speakers in this program (which was originally aired almost 8 years ago) to stave off the most dire consequences mentioned in the very scary film."

When you watch this you have to keep in mind that they are talking in a predictive mode. For us we watch it as descriptive of current conditions because we are living the 1 degree plus increase. We are approaching the 2 degree marker far faster than anticipated.

Six degrees could change the world

TEXT: "Published on Jun 24, 2013: NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC"

 

[Tyger]

See how much the world has physically changed since you were born. Hint: It's more than you realize.
LINK: See how much the world has physically changed since you were born. Hint: It's more than you realize.

Is Ice Melt Altering NG Maps?

TEXT: "Published on Jun 11, 2014: National Geographic's soon-to-be-published "Atlas of the World," tenth edition, will show the most dramatic change in Arctic ice since the 1963 publication of the first edition."

 

[Tyger]

10 Ways to Design Climate Sensitive Cities
LINK: http://landarchs.com/10-ways-design-climate-sensitive-cities/

 

[Tyger]

This might be a re-post. Not sure.

Power Surge, Climate Change. | Full Documentary HD

TEXT: "Published on Apr 2, 2015: Can emerging technology defeat global warming? The United States has invested tens of billions of dollars in clean energy projects as our leaders try to save our crumbling economy and our poisoned planet in one bold, green stroke. Are we finally on the brink of a green-energy "power surge," or is it all a case of too little, too late?

"From solar panel factories in China to a carbon capture-and-storage facility in the Sahara desert to massive wind and solar installations in the United States, NOVA travels the globe to reveal the surprising technologies that just might turn back the clock on climate change. NOVA will focus on the latest and greatest innovations, including everything from artificial trees to green reboots of familiar technologies like coal and nuclear energy. Can our technology, which helped create this problem, now solve it?"

 

[Tyger]

Martin O'Malley: Climate Change and the Syrian Conflict

TEXT: "Published on Sep 18, 2015: Thom Hartmann talks with Martin O'Malley, Democratic presidential candidate, former Maryland Governor (D) and Mayor of Baltimore, Martinomalley.com, who says climate change has led to the civil war in Syria."

 

[Tyger]

2015 - The Hottest Summer on Record!

TEXT: "Published on Sep 23, 2015: Thom Hartmann talks with Dr. Joe Romm, Founding Editor, ClimateProgress.org / Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress / Chief Science Advisor, Emmy-winning TV series, "Years of Living Dangerously", Website: ThinkProgress, about the effects of climate change on the Earth."

 

[Tyger]

Per usual, the following video compilation comes with the usual (before-mentioned) caveats. Most relevant, however, is the fact that these compilations are without context - namely, we do not know what 'normal' is for the regions here being shown. Some of the situations we can identify as outside of the range of normal, but basically the compilation is not a scientific presentation, and that must always be kept in mind. That said, enjoy!

SOTT Earth Changes Summary - September 2015:
Extreme Weather, Planetary Upheaval, Meteor Fireballs

TEXT: "Published on Oct 8, 2015: SOTT 'Earth Changes' video summary of extreme weather events and environmental indicators of 'planetary upheaval' (seismic, volcanic, etc) in September 2015.

"No matter the season or 'normal' climate, these days vehicles, homes and people are being washed away in deluges - the world over - on a regular basis. Forget "one month's average rainfall falling within hours" - last month, TWO MONTHS' average rainfall fell within a day and turned parts of southern Japan into inland seas. In the US, Utah experienced its worst ever flash-flooding, and the entire Eastern Seaboard was soaked with up to a foot of rain. This month, we also have clips of deluges in Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Norway, Thailand, Sierra Leone, and New Zealand, along with powerful storms hitting Brazil and Taiwan.

"Spectacular volcanic eruptions in Japan, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Indonesia foreshadowed a massive 8.3 magnitude earthquake struck off Chile, sending a 4.5 meter tsunami crashing into the coast and causing widespread damage. Hailstones the size of footballs fell in Naples, Italy. Brisbane, Australia, was blanketed in up to 4 inches (8cm) of hail, while a gigantic hole opened up on a nearby beach and swallowed a campsite. Meteor fireball sightings continue their meteoric rise, with spectacular sightings last month over Bangkok and Los Angeles.

"Wildfires continue burning up much of California, which last month saw its 'third-largest' wildfire in history as whole towns were consumed and tens of thousands of residents were forced to flee. The other major outbreak of wildfires on the planet in September occurred in Indonesia, from where a smoky haze enveloped much of southeast Asia for the second time in three years. 'Slash-and-burn' farming is being blamed, but the fires occur in peatlands that release lots of methane, leaving us wondering if the primary fuel source for these fires is coming up from below.

"Extreme weather also hit the Middle East, which was engulfed in an 'unprecedented' sandstorm that stretched from Iraq to Cyprus and south to Saudi Arabia. A tragic and incredibly symbolic event occurred in the heart of Islam's 'holy city' on the 14th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, when a powerful and unusual thunderstorm descended on Mecca and winds blew a large construction crane belonging to Bin Laden Construction onto the Grand Mosque. 111 people were killed and hundreds more injured.

"These were the signs of the times in September 2015."

 

[Tyger]

Currently, in SoCal, unseasonably hot for the time of year, to the tune of 20 to 30 degrees above the seasonal average. It should be about 70'F/21'C to 80'F/26'C. Instead today we had 100'F/38'C on the coast, with inland being much higher.

Past few nights at 11:00 p.m. it was well over 80'F. Not usual at all, and South Carolina on the East Coast had all our rain! Massive flooding over there and we are dry as a bone. Add to the heat the tinge of humidity and it's hot. My friend's empty plastic water bottle melted in her car. It's hot. (Did I say it's hot?)

El Nino should be kicking in come December with lots of rain. We hope so.

It's very clear that this year will be another record breaker - hottest on record. Enjoy the 'coolness' now - these will be 'the good 'ol days'. That's a fact.

 

[Tyger]

Provocative title but not what it seems - rather he is saying (his view) that the science should not be the focus - but rather how people are being impacted in the now should be what is being discussed. He has a point.

The fact that posters can come on these threads and ask - honestly, I am assuming, and not disingenuously - for me (for some reason) to point out to them how the predictions made over the years have been coming true, tells me that people in general are incapable of doing the most elementary observations themselves, let alone thinking for themselves. (News reports co-opt actual experience 'on the ground' it seems). It's a request that makes no sense to me on many levels. Look around. Do some reading. Connect the dots.

Anyway, the following young man has some valid points: less of the science, and more of the everyday experiences. Maybe that's the key to unlocking the lunacy of denial.

Why I don't care about 'Climate Change' | David Saddington | TEDxTeen

TEXT: "Published on Oct 28, 2014: This talk was given at a local TEDx event, produced independently of the TED Conferences. You don't care about climate change right? Because it's a bunch words of things that don't affect your daily life. Think again. In this provocative talk, Saddington gives us a new lens on climate change. It's a game changer.

"Influencing UK government policy, establishing his own social enterprise and fronting a media campaign that reached over 3 million people are just a few of David’s achievements as a climate change activist since being impacted by a stark reminder of climate change as a teenager. From a meeting with then Prime Minister Tony Blair at 10 Downing Street, he discussed the implementation of climate change on the national curriculum. Climate change is now an essential part of youth education and he has pushed to expand these education reforms worldwide.

"As a Three Dot Dash Global Teen Leader, he has expanded his philanthropic and award-winning social enterprise, which has developed eco gardens across Northern England and within the historic grounds of Durham University. David has acted as an environmental consultant for countless organisations and is a regular commentator on contemporary climate issues within academic arenas and international media outlets. He has studied the science of climate change at Durham University for 3 years and led a groundbreaking glacier survey expedition to Vatnajökull, Iceland. His most recent venture transformed the medieval Market Square of Durham City into an outdoor cinema to showcase the award-winning documentary Chasing Ice. He then chaired ‘Climate Change Question Time,’ where the public could grill world leading climate experts on the science behind the headlines and how to tackle the problem.

"David believes that we must act as a species rather than via fragmented interests in order to tackle this remarkable global disruptor."

 

[ALPHA ROMEO UNIFORM]

Global Warming will mean little if the Superpowers decide to exchange nuclear warheads over Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, Taiwan and Arctic or some crazy bat shit ISIS lone wolf or other offshoots groups sets off Biological: W.M.D. folks more interested in what's on the table and on the TV.

 

[Tyger]

Global Warming will mean little if the Superpowers decide to exchange nuclear warheads over Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, Taiwan and Arctic or some crazy bat shit ISIS lone wolf or other offshoots groups sets off Biological: W.M.D. folks more interested in what's on the table and on the TV.

That for sure will always be a possibility: Nuclear Winter will certainly change the playing field. A bizarre, massive sandstorm in Syria recently was so bad that fighting ceased for a couple of days. The regional weather of such an area gets like that long enough, crazy people will start doing crazy things (which they already are). For those curious: that's one of the predictions. Mass migrations causing instability on a global scale - another one of the predictions (we just hurried the tragedy along in the Middle East with our horrendously stupid invasion of Iraq). The nuclear threat is icing on the cake.