McCarthy, the polygraph examiner, insists Travis both failed the polygraph and tried to cheat. This was initially suppressed by APRO, and that would later help to fracture APRO and give birth to MUFON. But if you want to believe a guy who would steal your payroll cheque and forge his name on it to cash it, go ahead.
I have done some research about this..The National Enquirer newspaper had hired this McCarthy to do the test that Travis eventually failed.
National Enquirer (tabloid newspaper) had been offering a prize fund of 100,000 dollars, for a number of months, to anyone that can prove the existence of Aliens and UFO's.. So this McCarthy person was hired by the Enquirer, to me, he was no way neutral from the very start. A good review on what happened can be found online. I will post below soon.
Travis, "I was stupid and foolish when I was a younger man*... Well he an expunged record for Burglary not sure were you got the Payroll stuff from. Have you more information on that?
Philip Klass brought up the Burglary charge in his dismissal of Travis, but twisted from what I read. He never mentioned that the conviction was later removed.
The Travis Walton UFO Abduction Case Source. Geoff Price
I had to skip large chunks of the skip text just about hope this information is helpful.
Besieged by media, Walton's brother Duane reportedly tried to discreetly provide Travis with medical and scientific attention. The Walton brothers would eventually permit the case to be handled by the UFO investigative organization APRO, led by Jim Lorenzon. This resulted in an exclusive relationship with the National Enquirer, which was seeking the "scoop" on the Walton abduction and helping to bankroll APRO's investigation. The Enquirer, advised by Dr. James Harder of the University of California at Berkeley, arranged for psychological examinations and a polygraph test for Travis. The Enquirer would eventually run a large feature, and APRO touted the case as one of the most important events in UFO history.
Lie Detection Evidence
A total of thirteen polygraph examinations would ultimately be administered in conjunction with the case, a prodigious one as far as the use of polygraph evidence is concerned. A total of nine individuals were tested, including the seven primary participants as well as Walton's mother and brother. Eleven of the tests were passed, one (the original Dalis test) was inconclusive, and one -- the first test of the primary actor Walton -- was failed.
In evaluating this polygraph evidence, it is important to back up and consider the validity of lie detection tests in general. Do they work at all? In the domain of applied psychology, lie detection is referred to as the psychophysical detection of deception (PDD). The most common PDD technique is the polygraph, a general term describing tests which measure and correlate a variety of physiological activities (sweat and gland, cardiovascular, respiratory activity) using analog ("conventional") or computerized instruments.
The polygraph has always been a controversial topic, and much of the public -- and many introductory textbooks in psychology courses -- treat the matter with considerable skepticism. However, the more strident criticisms of the polygraph were spurred by inadequate earlier techniques, long since soundly rejected by academic scrutiny. Contemporary studies have found moderate but significant validity in the most common of modern techniques, the "Control Question Test" (CQT).
A recent article in the Journal of Credibility Assessment and Witness Psychology reviews the empirical and review literature concerning CQT, and concludes that, "when the ecologically valid laboratory studies and the high quality field studies are considered, both indicate high validity for the CQT
The Fifth Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals, in its decision in the U.S. vs. Posado in 1995, overturning "per se" exclusion of polygraph evidence, gave the following overview of the state of the evidence for polygraph:
"There can be no doubt that tremendous advances have been made in polygraph instrumentation and technique in the years since Frye. The test at issue in Frye measured only changes in the subject's systolic blood pressure in response to test questions. ... Modern instrumentation detects changes in the subject's blood pressure, pulse, thoracic and abdominal respiration, and galvanic skin response. Current research indicates that, when given under controlled conditions, the polygraph technique accurately predicts truth or deception between seventy and ninety percent of the time. Remaining controversy about test accuracy is almost unanimously attributed to variations in the integrity of the testing environment and the qualifications of the examiner. ... Further, there is good indication that polygraph technique and the requirements for professional polygraphists are becoming progressively more standardized. In addition, polygraph technique has been and continues to be subjected to extensive study and publication. Finally, polygraph is now so widely used by employers and government agencies alike."
And according to another court opinion:
"The predominant format employed in the field of polygraphy is the 'control question' technique ... There is no dispute in this case that the 'probable lie' version of the control question technique, when properly employed, is a highly accurate method for detecting deception and possesses the type of scientific validity that satisfies the reliability prong of Rule 702. Through numerous field and laboratory studies, researchers have determined that polygraph examinations using this technique produce results that have an accuracy rate of approximately ninety percent. ...
"The most thorough treatment of polygraph admissibility issues can be found in two district court opinions from Arizona and New Mexico [Galbreth and Crumby] ... both courts found that polygraph theory and technique had been tested by the scientific method and repeatedly validated in field and laboratory studies, subjected to stringent peer review and extensive publication, shown to have a remarkably low error rate when properly applied by a skilled polygrapher, enjoyed substantial acceptance within the scientific community, and was widely used within government and industry." [2]
Significant, and probably appropriate, obstacles remain before polygraph evidence finds a widespread and well-defined place in the courtroom, most notably with respect to the required standardization of examiner training, and in the ratification of techniques that are demonstrated proof against any physical and mental "countermeasures" that may be attempted by fraudulent claimants. However, a picture of significant validity and progress emerges.
It appears that there is sufficient evidence of the validity of polygraph testing to justify its careful use as one form of supporting evidence in the evaluation of UFO and other "extraordinary" claims. Polygraph results have the possibility of being most effective when used in multiple witness situations, where test error can be minimized across multiple subjects, and the possibility of "gross hoax" (i.e. the probability that the witnesses as a whole are lying about an event) can be rejected to a potentially high degree of confidence.
However, the responsible use and evaluation of lie detection evidence requires a careful consideration of which kinds of tests are well-grounded in scientific validity and which are not.
Overview of the Walton Polygraph Evidence
The initial tests of the six witnesses, performed by Cy Gilson while Walton was still missing, were CQT-format examinations. The questions he asked primarily addressed the possibility of some non-extraordinary foul play at work, but pointedly questioned the witnesses regarding the veracity of the reported UFO event. As mentioned previously, five of the six passed, with the one inconclusive result.
In the next test to be performed, a private investigator named John McCarthy was hired to test Walton relatively soon after his reappearance. McCarthy ruled Walton deceptive, and the test results were regrettably suppressed by APRO and the National Enquirer. (This test will be discussed in detail below.)
A follow-up examination of Walton by George Pfeifer ruled Walton truthful. After allegations aired by critics, Walton's mother and brother also took and passed polygraph tests administered by Pfeifer.
Twenty years later, in 1993, Cy Gilson retested key participants Travis Walton, (foreman and Walton friend) Mike Rogers, and Allen Dalis (the original "inconclusive" result), using a state-of-the-art computer-scored CQT methodology. All three passed.
The significance of the unanimous passing of competently administered CQT examinations by all six witnesses is considerable. Assuming independent tests, the odds of gross hoax (all participants lying about the UFO encounter) is less than one-tenth of a percent using the reasonably conservative figure of 70% for test accuracy, and on the order of one in a million using the 90% figure suggested by field tests. In short, relatively strong evidence that some kind of real event took place. On the basis of such evidence, APRO praised the case as one of the most important in history.
The Debunker Strikes Back
Media attention attracted both supporters and critics of the UFO phenomenon. One of the most well-known UFO skeptics, Phil Klass, became deeply involved in the case, and vociferously denounced it as a hoax.
But Klass frequently pushed the evidence well past where it was willing to naturally bend. For example, in his discussion of the Sylvanus interview, which took place at the search site and involved both Duane and Mike Rogers, Klass wrote of Rogers (underlined, and in all caps): "BUT AT NO TIME DURING THE HOUR-LONG INTERVIEW DID ROGERS EXPRESS THE SLIGHTEST CONCERN OVER WHETHER TRAVIS MIGHT HAVE BEEN INJURED OR KILLED".
The actual tape includes such comments as these from Rogers: [Recalling event:] "...we're going to have to go back. I agreed, you know, we couldn't leave him over there if he was hurt, which he certainly looked to me like he received some kind of [pause] something, some kind of injury, I don't know if it just stunned him or hurt him. Since we haven't found him we don't know but [big sigh, pause]..." And: "...no tracks, no pieces of clothing, no blood, no nothing. I mean there was no trace of it, and there was no trace of him. Some of the guys started crying; I remember I started crying..."
Klass aggressively tried to characterize Walton as a "known" "UFO freak", while Walton denied any unusual interest in the subject prior to his abduction. For example, Klass wrote in his June 1976 paper: "...I asked [Dr. Kandell] whether Travis or Duane had indicated any previous interest in UFOs during his November 11 discussions and examination. Dr. Kandell replied: 'They admitted to that freely, that he [Travis] was a 'UFO freak', so to speak ... He had made remarks that if he ever saw one, he'd like to go aboard.'"
Walton was eventually able to obtain and present Klass' original transcripts of the conversation, which presents a different picture than that suggested by Klass' cut and paste quotation: Kandell: They admitted to that freely, that he was, you know, a "UFO freak", so to speak. He's interested in it. Klass: Which one? Kandell: Travis. He had made remarks before that if he ever saw one, he'd like to go aboard, this and that. So, yes, that was mentioned. That was out. Klass: When was that? Was that when you and Dr. Saults were there or when more of the people were there? Kandell: No, that was, I think, subsequently, it came out. I don't know whether it was that Friday night, or it could have been that I, that it was in the newspapers, that somebody else might have mentioned it. Klass: But you heard it from their own lips? Kandell: I think so. I think so. I can't be 100-percent positive. But if I didn't, it was discussed. They didn't deny that. That wasn't denied. Continuing to pound out a negative characterization of key participants, Klass writes in "UFOs: The Public Deceived":
"Clearly Rogers feared that at least one member of his crew would fail [a follow-up polygraph] test, regardless of who was accepted as the examiner. [Investigator Bill] Barry's book quotes Rogers as saying, "[Witness] Steve [Pierce] told me and Travis that he had been offered ten thousand dollars just to sign a denial. He said he was thinking about it... So I told him, 'Then you'll spend the money alone, and you'll be bruised.'" The latter suggests that Rogers was threatening Pierce with physical harm if he recanted."
Klass' presentation suggests a hoax organized by Rogers and Walton and held together with raw physical threats (although the reader is left with some confusion as to why Rogers would be admitting this to investigators.) But again, this citation appears in a rather different light when contrasted with the original passage from which Klass is quoting (from Barry's book
"According to Mike Rogers, 'Steve told me and Travis that he had been offered ten thousand dollars just to sign a denial. He said he was thinking about taking it. We asked him, 'Even though you know it happened, would you deny it just for the money?' He said maybe he would; he was thinking about it. So I told him, 'Then you'll spend the money alone, and you'll be bruised.'' "
Klass' creative use of ellipses artfully shifts the context of the comments. Klass also deceptively injects the term "recant" (with its connotation of a public confession of error), when clearly Pierce was talking about falsely denying the event in return for money.
(Bill Barry, whom Klass is quoting, offered a blistering review of Klass' investigative demeanor, for the record: "His method of dealing with their evidence was harsh, smug, superior, unfair, and sometimes worse. And when push came to shove, and evidence could not be impugned, he simply ignored it and omitted it from consideration.")
Klass eventually focused on his "forest contract theory" for hoax motive, wherein Walton and Rogers were staging the hoax as a way to get out of the forest service contract via an "act of God" provision.
Klass on the Polygraph Evidence
Klass attacked the original Gilson tests on the grounds of insufficient questioning regarding the UFO incident. He quoted Gilson as saying, "That one question does not make it a valid test as far as verifying the UFO incident."
This, however, contradicted Gilson's written word at the time. And in 1993, in preparation for retesting, Mike Rogers asked Gilson to state for the record whether his opinion of the original tests had changed. Gilson replied:
"Today, in 1993, I am still of the same opinion that they were valid examinations and the results were conclusive on the five. Even though there was only one question asked that related to the UFO sighting, it was a valid question and the results proved none of you were lying when stating you saw an object that you believe was a UFO. ... I hope this letter will satisfy you, and anyone else, that my beliefs in the results of those examinations, are the same today as they were in 1975."
But however lackluster Klass' case on all these counts, the crown jewel of his campaign was clearly the discovery of the initial, failed polygraph test of Travis Walton. On a tip, Klass tracked down John McCarthy and found himself in the possession of a genuine scoop: a polygraph test failed by the primary actor Walton and suppressed by the ufological group APRO and the National Enquirer.
APRO's advisors, such as Dr. James Harder, had felt the test was inconclusive as a result of Walton's emotional instability. The Enquirer accepted this and ordered the followup Pfeifer test. Yet such excuses would ring hollow to the ears of many observers.
In fact, Klass' discovery of the McCarthy test turned many ufologists and much of the public against the case. For example as recently as 1997, popular ufologist Kevin Randle panned the case as a hoax in his book The Randle Report, arguing that, due to its proximity to the original events, the McCarthy test "spoke volumes" about Walton's truthfulness.
The test would also achieve a sort of urban legend status among UFO skeptics. For example, Anson Kennedy of Georgia Skeptics was quoted on Robert Sheaffer's web site as saying:
"But the real 'bombshell,' as Klass describes it in his book, was the fact that Walton had failed an earlier polygraph examination miserably and this information had been suppressed by APRO, which had been proclaiming the Walton case 'one of the most important and intriguing in the history of the UFO phenomena.' This test was administered by John McCarthy, who with twenty years of experience was one of the most respected examiners in the state of Arizona. His conclusion: 'Gross deception.' Proponents of the Walton case never mention this examination."
The story, including the embellishments (McCarthy "with twenty years of experience was one of the most respected examiners in the state of Arizona") could be traced directly, of course, to Klass.
The McCarthy Test and Polygraph Methodology
Unfortunately, neither Klass nor modern critics such as Randle seriously address the issue of polygraph methodology. John McCarthy in 1975 was still using what is called the "Relevant/Irrelevant" (RI) examination format. Test transcripts were forwarded by Allan Hendry of CUFOS to Dr. David Raskin, a published scholar and recognized authority on the polygraph, who described the technique as "unacceptable" and "thirty years out of date".
A cursory examination of the literature readily confirms the degree to which the RI technique is held in low regard. The aforementioned academic review of polygraphy states brusquely, "Of the three techniques discussed in this paper, there seems to be general agreement in the scientific literature that the Relevant-Irrelevant Test lacks validity".
Crucial is the issue of why, specifically, RI tests have been found to be unreliable. The same court review that praises CQT as "a highly accurate method for detecting deception" explains that:
"The relevant/irrelevant technique has been determined by researchers to produce an unacceptably high number of 'false positive' errors (because even an innocent subject will recognize the significance of the relevant question and may react to it) and has generally been discarded in favor of other techniques that have been shown to have a higher degree of reliability." [3]
And the conditions of the McCarthy test are not particularly ideal. Descriptions of Walton's extreme agitation are universally available, even from cynical skeptics such as Enquirer reporter Jeff Wells: "Our first sight of the kid was at dinner in the hotel dining room that night. It was a shock. He sat there mute, pale, twitching like a cornered animal. He was either a brilliant actor or he was in serious funk about something... The kid was a wreck and it was all the psychiatrist could do to get him ready for the lie-detector expert we had lined up."
Additionally, the Walton brothers experienced McCarthy as hostile and disbelieving, which (if true) can also increase the risk of false positive error. On tape, McCarthy interrupts Walton 28 times, for example berating him when he is clearly confused about dates, snapping "Where have you been, in a vacuum?"
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) Yes, I remember the controversy about that one. but what about the ones he passed? That convinced the Sheriff?
