Well, when you can't attack the data, attack the person providing it. You have just provided us a textbook example of an Ad Hominem logical fallacy. When your three main points against the article all start with "you," there's a problem. Why don't you point out where his DATA is wrong, that's what's more important.
This is something that happens a lot when these topics are discussed and it ends up leading nowhere. I know I've been guilty of it in the past, but I have made a conscious effort of avoiding it as much as possible.
Phil, it's like saying that because you believe that astrology is real that you are wrong about everything. Point out where his data is wrong, not in what Lance believes, and we will go a long way in moving forward in this discussion.
Sorry Angelo, you can wrap your reply in any amount of JREF speak as you want but the facts are that Lance has a huge bias towards proving that all UFO cases are bunk. He has admitted on several occasions that he does not believe that UFOs even exist. So when it comes time for him to analyze a case this bias will always get in the way and flavor his result. It's just how it is.
Yes the the cloud theory is plausible, i have said that before in this and an other thread. But to have us believe that Johnson and crew mistook what they saw with a cloud is more unbelievable than if they saw a UFO. Simple. When the attempted explanation is more unbelievable than the witness report it is quite easy to dismiss it.
My opinion is that Lances explanation is less credible than Kelly Johnson's. Especially since Johnson was there and Lance was not. I have great respect for Lance, he has done some great work and i agree with him more often than not these days. But not today.
Lance saying it was a cloud is no different than Marcel being told it was a weather balloon or the American public later being told that the Roswell case was really Project Mogul. Both clumsy attempts at telling the witnesses what they really saw and that is what Lance is doing, telling the witnesses what they saw.
In the end i believe that it is relatively pointless going over these old cases decades after the fact and trying to prove or disprove them. They have all been well researched and indeed done to death.
As for the blue flame, i am sorry to have injected that into the mix as i was indeed working off Kieran's post. It does not change my opinion however.
Phil, it's like saying that because you believe that astrology is real that you are wrong about everything.
More like saying that because you, Angelo, don't believe in paranormal events therefore there is no such thing as the paranormal or that all things can be explained by science or James Randi. A simplistic yet erroneous point of view. A point of view that takes the polar opposite to the true believers who believe every sighting is an alien event. Therefore it is just as unreliable. I don't think you can be truly considered sceptical if you are biased either way.
If you read Lance's report you discover the bias of personal opinion oozing through it. That is not sceptical, in the true sense. He has let his disdain for the subject color his objectivity.
Go to his blog site. It is not just me who has seen it. Others there have commented on it also.
As for the data, sure it is fine and well researched if you were looking to make it fit your cloud explanation. Unfortunately it is also, if not more-so compelling, that what they saw was an UNIDENTIFIED FLYING OBJECT. Lance's presentation only provides us with an ALTERNATIVE explanation not a DEFINITIVE one. And in the balance of probability considering the calibre of the witnesses I go with Johnson's testimony.
You see i don't have a problem with Lance's data (collection or application in this case) only i know he is biased and will seek to apply it to suit his way of thinking. Just as i suspect you will Angelo.
p.s
I find this amusing.
One of the things Lance was critical about was that that Johnson and others had an interest in UFOs before this particular sighting leading Lance to believe that this may have colored his testimony. So what we seem to have ended up with is a UFO biased witness being told by an equally biased "No such thing as a UFO" researcher what he saw. What we seemed to be left with amidst this debacle is which explanation is more plausible and that, as always, is up to the beerholder(sic). lol