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Prediction

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fitzbew88 said:
...

You know, there could be a significant event with the military and it might be years before it pops up somewhere.
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CONGRATULATIONS!
You've just won the prize for neatly explaining why this 'prediction' is TOTAL BULLSHIT.

What would be the point of predicting something if no one knows if the event did or didn't take place?
 
Rob said:
CONGRATULATIONS!
You've just won the prize for neatly explaining why this 'prediction' is TOTAL BULLSHIT.
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Actually, I was explaining that merely because we are not aware of any UFO event doesn't automatically mean Allen missed the mark. I mean, we are going to have to judge Allen's method/predictions based on known HITS in the set of predictions. A single hit/miss is not going to tell us anything.

Now, be advised that Allen's claims are deeply buried in my Unproven basket and I am surely not endorsing or defending them.

I am just keeping my eyes open.

Rob said:
What would be the point of predicting something if no one knows if the event did or didn't take place?
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Well, if Allen makes 20 such predictions and 15 of them yield interesting reports --- then I believe that would be useful. However, if 20 such predictions result in Zero reports? Well, I'm taking it out of my Unproven basket and putting it in my round filing cabinet.

I think we would agree, though, it's wise to consider the predictions "bulls*it" until proven otherwise.
 
Exactly what was Allen's prediction? : That something will happen somewhere near Houston.

How can anyone validate something as vapourous and lacking in substance as this?
 
Rob said:
Exactly what was Allen's prediction? : That something will happen somewhere near Houston.

How can anyone validate something as vapourous and lacking in substance as this?
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Oh, really? I thought it was something like: "There will be a significant UFO event south of Houston."

I really don't remember the precise prediction. Which episode was this? I guess I am just going to have to download it.
 
Poi said:
For clarity, Allen actually said "south of Houston" as though it will be close to the city rather than in it. He specified this in a thread about his show.
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I have listened several times and this is what he said at 1:47:36 in the May 25th 2008 episode.

"I predict there will be a major UFO siting and/or landing on July 3rd, 2008 in Houston, Texas"

He didn't say "south", maybe he qualified the prediction later like you said, but I think that's just a cop out on his part. Adding "south" opens up the possible area immensely and muddies the pool if you will.

He also mentioned something about a convention (maybe online?) June 20th when he would give 5 predictions based on his cipher (and Houston was one of them). Anyone know anything about this?
 
Brian Now said:
I have listened several times and this is what he said at 1:47:36 in the May 25th 2008 episode.

"I predict there will be a major UFO siting and/or landing on July 3rd, 2008 in Houston, Texas"

He didn't say "south", maybe he qualified the prediction later like you said, but I think that's just a cop out on his part. Adding "south" opens up the possible area immensely and muddies the pool if you will.
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Thanks for posting this, Brian.

I guess the only fair thing to do is wait a couple days and see if anything "major" pops up.
 
Brian Now said:
I found this livejournal site that apparently belongs to Greenfield. Maybe it's not his, but it seems he posts there at the very least..

He addresses the prediction:
http://tausirhasirim.livejournal.com/87814.html

You will need boots.
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The page says: "About 75-85% they work, which, need it be said, 15-25% of the time it is a complete miss or a near miss. This is a good occasion to point out how I arrived at "Houston TEXAS, major UFO case, probably to the South on the
3rd of July 2008".
Do note - if there was a case of epic proportions, such as an abduction, it might not be immediately reported to the media, UFO filter centers or my own observers for some time, but as of now, I call it a miss."


Well, Allen, if you call it a miss I guess we must also.
 
millionaire_idiot_fail-713308.jpg
 
Rob, I have a very low opinion of humanity, so excuse what might seem like a dumb question. Did that really happen, in your last pic? Or is it photoshopped etc?
 
I dunno for sure, but this one I do know happened :

25b.jpg


Q - "Which one revolves around the Earth?" (La Lune = Moon, correct answer)

A - "The Sun" FAIL
 
Brian Now said:
I have listened several times and this is what he [Allen] said at 1:47:36 in the May 25th 2008 episode.

"I predict there will be a major UFO siting and/or landing on July 3rd, 2008 in Houston, Texas"
Click to expand...

NUFORC has updated their sighting database and there is a Houston report on the right date:

http://www.nuforc.org/webreports/064/S64293.html

Obviously, this does not constitute a "major" sighting... :D ... in fact, it was likely the planet Jupiter. Anyhoooooo......
 
Prediction I forgot too! But...

What about this? Just a quick GR=Google Research ;) Not the same day but the next.
<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/JjMEv3CWhDo&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/JjMEv3CWhDo&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>
UFO over Houston, Texas, July 4, 2008
This is a very stange one guys, filmed on July 4 2008 over Houston Texas, it doesn't fit the shape of a normal triangle ufo so not sure about this, but still interesting.
http://www.realufos.net/2008/07/ufo-over-houston-texas-july-4-2008.html
 
Prediction I forgot too! But...

phantasmosxmagnum said:
What about this? Just a quick GR=Google Research ;) Not the same day but the next.

This is a very stange one guys, filmed on July 4 2008 over Houston Texas, it doesn't fit the shape of a normal triangle ufo so not sure about this, but still interesting.

http://www.realufos.net/2008/07/ufo-over-houston-texas-july-4-2008.html
Click to expand...

Intriguing. I wonder why there is no sound? That would sure add a lot to it.
 
The Pair of Cats said:
Of course, blame Jupiter when no other explanation will do. How about swamp gas or ball lightning?
More likely it was Uranus.
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Of course, I'm sure the NUFORC folks have no wish to "blame Jupiter". The problem is: How do we rule Jupiter out? It was right where the observer was looking, big and bright. In fact, it was the brightest astronomical object in the sky at the time.

Uranus was still below the horizon and is not visible to the naked eye anyway under ordinary conditions.

One factor that argues against Jupiter is that Jupiter was rising (not setting) and shouldn't have disappeared. Cloud cover?

So, that's the problem: convincingly ruling out astronomical causes for UFO reports.
 
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