Substrate-independent minds

[mike]

My favorite extracts from the wik singularity page:

"Jaron Lanier refutes the idea that the Singularity is inevitable. He states: "I do not think the technology is creating itself. It's not an anonymous process." He goes on to assert: "The reason to believe in human agency over technological determinism is that you can then have an economy where people earn their own way and invent their own lives. If you structure a society on not emphasizing individual human agency, it's the same thing operationally as denying people clout, dignity and self-determination ... To embrace [the idea of the Singularity] would be a celebration of bad taste and bad politics."[111]

In addition to general criticisms of the singularity concept, several critics have raised issues with Kurzweil's iconic chart. One line of criticism is that a log-log chart of this nature is inherently biased toward a straight-line result. Others identify selection bias in the points that Kurzweil chooses to use. For example, biologist PZ Myers points out that many of the early evolutionary "events" were picked arbitrarily.[112] Kurzweil has rebutted this by charting evolutionary events from 15 neutral sources, and showing that they fit a straight line on a log-log chart. The Economist mocked the concept with a graph extrapolating that the number of blades on a razor, which has increased over the years from one to as many as five, will increase ever-faster to infinity.[113]"

History has always had those who refute the potentials emerging before their very eyes

Space travel is bunk.” — Sir Harold Spencer Jones, Astronomer Royal of the UK, 1957 (two weeks later Sputnik orbited the Earth).

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876

Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." -- Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872.

The difference between these people and those who ignored them and did it anyway, is that those who dare to try, are the only ones with a working path to finding out if its possible or not.

Those who simply say it cant be done, fulfil their own prophecy

 

[mike]

It'll Never Work!

 

[Constance]

The difference between these people and those who ignored them and did it anyway, is that those who dare to try, are the only ones with a working path to finding out if its possible or not.

It might be pleasant to find out and not too globally tragic for a while. I realize that you also expect to achieve godlike powers and immortality through AI. And the ability to read other peoples' minds. Best of luck with that.

Those who simply say it cant be done, fulfil their own prophecy

I don't know "if it can be done" or what 'it' will be like. I am tired of talking about it though. Carry on and have a good time.

 

[mike]

. And the ability to read other peoples' minds. Best of luck with that.



.

Luck is a poor substitute for research and development

A study published on PLoS Biology called ‘Reconstructing Speech from Human Auditory Cortex‘ has made the initial steps in converting brain activities into audio. Using computer algorithms, the research revealed how thoughts can be decoded, reconstructed, and played back in sound.
The technology still has a long way to go, but provides a glimpse of what the future might hold. For example, computers might be able to read our minds entirely to perform functions accordingly

Computer Reads Your Mind And Says Out Loud What You're Thinking [Video] - PSFK



The breakthrough, by a team at the University of California, raises the prospect of scientists eventually being able to record dreams or enable police to identify criminals by recalling the memories of a witness

Scientists use computer to 'read minds' on screen - Telegraph

"The question we are trying to get at is one people have been thinking about for centuries, which is: How does the brain organise knowledge?" Mitchell said in a telephone interview.
"It is only in the last 10 or 15 years that we have this way that we can study this question."
Mitchell's team used functional magnetic resonance imaging, a type of brain scan that can see real-time brain activity.

Computer trained to 'read' minds - Technology - smh.com.au

 

[smcder]

History has always had those who refute the potentials emerging before their very eyes

Space travel is bunk.” — Sir Harold Spencer Jones, Astronomer Royal of the UK, 1957 (two weeks later Sputnik orbited the Earth).

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876

Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." -- Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872.

The difference between these people and those who ignored them and did it anyway, is that those who dare to try, are the only ones with a working path to finding out if its possible or not.

Those who simply say it cant be done, fulfil their own prophecy

The question isn't could it but should it?

Lots of things that could have been done, haven't ... and lots of things we should have had done we don't ... and everything that hasn't been done yet, hasn't ... but whatever is done will be what was possible, because if it isn't, it wasn't and never could be.

And they said it could be done!

I'm pretty sure my logic here is impeccable ... but peck at your own risk.

Like the Red Queen ... I believe in dozens of impossible things before breakfast. I find they go well with eggs.



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[smcder]

Where does Kurzweil make the hard sell claim that, "AI will provide a panacea for all human problems ..."? I've never seen it. It seems more likely to me that the type of thing you're talking about is when over zealous fans of AI extrapolate it out into some kind of sci-fi utopian world. I don't see that utopia happening. Humans as a collective are never satisfied because individuals aren't always satisfied with everything, so even if AI helps solve one problem, there will still be more problems to solve after that, and even if we assume that AI could solve all our problems, then we'd be sitting around bored wondering what to do next. AI has a lot of potential to be very helpful, but I think it would be a mistake to idealize it.

What is your vision of AI in the near future?



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[Randall]

What is your vision of AI in the near future?
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My version of AI? I take a very generalized approach. I don't require AI to be sentient in order to be considered intelligent. So what we're already seeing in some of the so-called "smart technology" will continue to become smarter. Search engines will be able to make more accurate predictions about what you are looking for, and compose a synopsis for you along with footnotes. So far less digging around through irrelevant results, and far less time drafting reports. It will be able to more accurately diagnose medical conditions based on a combination of examination and patient feedback. It will be able to manage complex systems like power grids, traffic, and switchboards to improve efficiency. It will be able to examine, proof, and improve on engineering designs, including it's own.

Barring some global disaster, this and much more will happen before my normal lifespan is up ( the next 25 years ), and the children of today will probably live to see AIs that interface with humans on a level indistinguishable from other humans, and perhaps even more desirable than other humans in some cases, like when you need to solve a problem by calling a company representative, instead of getting some incompetent nincompoop who barely speaks your language, you'll get an AI that recognizes your voice and language and will be able to bring up all your information, discuss your concerns in detail, and resolve the issue, not merely with a series of Boolean options, but creatively.

There will be a backlash to the introduction of these technologies on some levels as they will probably begin to replace people in more and more information and tech related jobs. It's going to be amazing but perhaps these AIs will also assist in making the transition much easier than we anticipate. I prefer to be optimistic. If we choose to use them for tools of good rather than make AI drones and smart weapons that are used to corral people into slave camps, the world might very well become a much better place.

 

[smcder]

My version of AI? I take a very generalized approach. I don't require AI to be sentient in order to be considered intelligent. So what we're already seeing in some of the so-called "smart technology" will continue to become smarter. Search engines will be able to make more accurate predictions about what you are looking for, and compose a synopsis for you along with footnotes. So far less digging around through irrelevant results, and far less time drafting reports. It will be able to more accurately diagnose medical conditions based on a combination of examination and patient feedback. It will be able to manage complex systems like power grids, traffic, and switchboards to improve efficiency. It will be able to examine, proof, and improve on engineering designs, including it's own.

Barring some global disaster, this and much more will happen before my normal lifespan is up ( the next 25 years ), and the children of today will probably live to see AIs that interface with humans on a level indistinguishable from other humans, and perhaps even more desirable than other humans in some cases, like when you need to solve a problem by calling a company representative, instead of getting some incompetent nincompoop who barely speaks your language, you'll get an AI that recognizes your voice and language and will be able to bring up all your information, discuss your concerns in detail, and resolve the issue, not merely with a series of Boolean options, but creatively.

There will be a backlash to the introduction of these technologies on some levels as they will probably begin to replace people in more and more information and tech related jobs. It's going to be amazing but perhaps these AIs will also assist in making the transition much easier than we anticipate. I prefer to be optimistic. If we choose to use them for tools of good rather than make AI drones and smart weapons that are used to corral people into slave camps, the world might very well become a much better place.

Can we, should we rock the cradle and make modifications to humanity that increase these chances?

I mean modify humans to be more peaceful? Wiser? Could we agree on what this meant and how would we do it?

This seems different from cognitive enhancements - increasing IQ, memory - speed of thought - ...

There the outcomes aren't predictable - we don't know what a smarter version of us would do.

But we could look to see if there are personal rather than sociological differences in those who now pursue peace rather than war ... and see if we could increase those traits?



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[mike]

The question isn't could it but should it?

Lots of things that could have been done, haven't ... and lots of things we should have had done we don't ... and everything that hasn't been done yet, hasn't ... but whatever is done will be what was possible, because if it isn't, it wasn't and never could be.

And they said it could be done!

I'm pretty sure my logic here is impeccable ... but peck at your own risk.

Like the Red Queen ... I believe in dozens of impossible things before breakfast. I find they go well with eggs.



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Its all relative i guess, there are some things that have been done that perhaps shouldnt like nukes and MIRVs. But as i believe one of Streibers alleged visitors once told him, the universe has one simple rule

The ability to do a thing is all the right you need to do so.

When we apply this maxim to various scenarios our moral response will differ from example to example, But at the end of the day there is a simple logic to that statement.

I think AI or SI as i prefer to call it, will be implemented in the same way seatbelts were, Seatbelts save lives as the slogan goes.

If it turns out cars fitted with AI dont crash like human piloted ones do now, then we will see them included as standard items like airbags, seatbelts and their poor cousins anti collision systems.

If SI Doctors and surgeons do a statistically better job than biologicals, again they will likely replace them.

Ufologys example is another good one

Other industrys will use them such as mining and prostitution

In their paper, they envision a future where robotic prostitutes are the solution to the sex industry's most glaring problems, such as human trafficking, human degradation and the spread of sexually transmitted infections.

Robot Prostitutes, the Future of Sex Tourism : Discovery News

Robot Restaurant: Robots cook food and wait tables in Harbin | Daily Mail Online

Aged care is another area

At Hanson Robotics, the team believes the immediate future for the business lies in creating animatronic robots for theme parks while it develops for the longer term lifelike androids to work in hospitals and with special needs children.

Hanson Robotics Inc Home - Hanson Robotics Inc

The Future of Artificial Intelligence: AI 140 British Android ‘Jules’ Mimics Facial Expressions with human like qualities

And yes, the issues in regards to "jobs" is a very real one, but not without precident. Tractors replaced the horse. Robots now do many things humans did in years gone by.

Adding SI to hanson robotics type bodys will enable them to delve even deeper into roles done by humans such as tour guides ,waiters, bar staff etc etc. But this is inevitable as it was in the automotive industry, and for the same reasons

 

[mike]

Imagine the Red Adair 5000

A firefighting SI

With its composite mindfile comprising the very best experiential downloads from the world most experienced fire and rescue personel

Its core data files stored safely in the cloud, actuating a heat resistant "body" with a lifting capacity 1o times that of a normal human, Infrared vision modes for seeing hotspots, as well as Xray and ultrasound modes for seeing thru walls and other debris.

 

[Randall]

Can we, should we rock the cradle and make modifications to humanity that increase these chances?

It will happen whether we want it to or not. Ideally choices should be made on an individual basis. But what about the children? Parents tend to want them to have every opportunity and advantage that will help them succeed and survive. What if getting those opportunities and advantages requires choices to be made before a child can decide for themselves, even before birth, or possibly even before conception? Those are more complex issues. What happens when not having the modifications makes us social outcasts? Will all parents choose not to have the modifications? I seriously doubt it.

I already feel that pressure simply because I don't use a cell phone. Many jobs these days require that applicants own a cell phone, and a lot of communications flows through this medium. Commerce is also moving toward smart phones for banking, payments, coupons, and contests. So I'm already at a disadvantage, and it hasn't even been embedded into our physiology ( yet ). However at some point the technology will become so transparent that simply thinking about the problems you want to solve will result in really useful answers without having to manually sift through piles of information. Whether we like it or not, I suspect that this will become the world of the future. People like me will become like the Amish are to society today.

​

 

[mike]

I think youve nailed the dynamic on the head.

Anyone sending their child to Uni today buys them a laptop for access to the datanets.
To not do so, to simply say go to the library for your research is to hamstring them.

It wont need to be forced on anyone, its the better moustrap adage.

Build one, and the world will beat a path to your door.
The phrase has turned into a metaphor about the power of innovation.

The negatives will be weighed against the positives, if the latter is the prevalent factor it will be adopted.

 

[smcder]

Its all relative i guess, there are some things that have been done that perhaps shouldnt like nukes and MIRVs. But as i believe one of Streibers alleged visitors once told him, the universe has one simple rule

The ability to do a thing is all the right you need to do so.

When we apply this maxim to various scenarios our moral response will differ from example to example, But at the end of the day there is a simple logic to that statement.

I think AI or SI as i prefer to call it, will be implemented in the same way seatbelts were, Seatbelts save lives as the slogan goes.

If it turns out cars fitted with AI dont crash like human piloted ones do now, then we will see them included as standard items like airbags, seatbelts and their poor cousins anti collision systems.

If SI Doctors and surgeons do a statistically better job than biologicals, again they will likely replace them.

Ufologys example is another good one

Other industrys will use them such as mining and prostitution

In their paper, they envision a future where robotic prostitutes are the solution to the sex industry's most glaring problems, such as human trafficking, human degradation and the spread of sexually transmitted infections.

Robot Prostitutes, the Future of Sex Tourism : Discovery News

Robot Restaurant: Robots cook food and wait tables in Harbin | Daily Mail Online

Aged care is another area

At Hanson Robotics, the team believes the immediate future for the business lies in creating animatronic robots for theme parks while it develops for the longer term lifelike androids to work in hospitals and with special needs children.

Hanson Robotics Inc Home - Hanson Robotics Inc

The Future of Artificial Intelligence: AI 140 British Android ‘Jules’ Mimics Facial Expressions with human like qualities

And yes, the issues in regards to "jobs" is a very real one, but not without precident. Tractors replaced the horse. Robots now do many things humans did in years gone by.

Adding SI to hanson robotics type bodys will enable them to delve even deeper into roles done by humans such as tour guides ,waiters, bar staff etc etc. But this is inevitable as it was in the automotive industry, and for the same reasons

So the robotic prostitutes will not be conscious or will be programmed to like sex with strangers ... or ... ? Can they look like 12 yr olds?

I'll read the article.

Not sure about that moral principle. It's a bit mystical.

And a bit Streiber ... but I'll think on it.


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[smcder]

It will happen whether we want it to or not. Ideally choices should be made on an individual basis. But what about the children? Parents tend to want them to have every opportunity and advantage that will help them succeed and survive. What if getting those opportunities and advantages requires choices to be made before a child can decide for themselves, even before birth, or possibly even before conception? Those are more complex issues. What happens when not having the modifications makes us social outcasts? Will all parents choose not to have the modifications? I seriously doubt it.

I already feel that pressure simply because I don't use a cell phone. Many jobs these days require that applicants own a cell phone, and a lot of communications flows through this medium. Commerce is also moving toward smart phones for banking, payments, coupons, and contests. So I'm already at a disadvantage, and it hasn't even been embedded into our physiology ( yet ). However at some point the technology will become so transparent that simply thinking about the problems you want to solve will result in really useful answers without having to manually sift through piles of information. Whether we like it or not, I suspect that this will become the world of the future. People like me will become like the Amish are to society today.

​

Here's my full question ... Which is about specific changes.

Also "it will happen" means Transhumanism?

What is your source of clairvoy- I mean confidence? ;-)

I'm still not seeing details on energy, manufacturer - distribution that get us there from here.

What's your expected time line?


"Can we, should we rock the cradle and make modifications to humanity that increase these chances?

I mean modify humans to be more peaceful? Wiser? Could we agree on what this meant and how would we do it?

This seems different from cognitive enhancements - increasing IQ, memory - speed of thought - ...

There the outcomes aren't predictable - we don't know what a smarter version of us would do.

But we could look to see if there are personal rather than sociological differences in those who now pursue peace rather than war ... and see if we could increase those traits?"

Bonus Question:

Do those involved in promoting Transhumanism have some psychological and social similarities ... in terms of personal responsibility for example? This would be complex of course with people bringing various motives and ideas of what Txhumanism means .... but it seems a good idea to bring out any underlying motives avid make those conscious intentions.

I ask myself sometimes

"Would you keep doing what you are doing now if you really knew what you were doing?"

Contemplating that usually reveals at least one more layer of motive as to what I'm up to ...


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[smcder]

Imagine the Red Adair 5000

A firefighting SI

With its composite mindfile comprising the very best experiential downloads from the world most experienced fire and rescue personel

Its core data files stored safely in the cloud, actuating a heat resistant "body" with a lifting capacity 1o times that of a normal human, Infrared vision modes for seeing hotspots, as well as Xray and ultrasound modes for seeing thru walls and other debris.

Red Adair 1.0

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[smcder]

I think youve nailed the dynamic on the head.

Anyone sending their child to Uni today buys them a laptop for access to the datanets.
To not do so, to simply say go to the library for your research is to hamstring them.

It wont need to be forced on anyone, its the better moustrap adage.

Build one, and the world will beat a path to your door.
The phrase has turned into a metaphor about the power of innovation.

The negatives will be weighed against the positives, if the latter is the prevalent factor it will be adopted.

I see an issue of confusing technology for energy and other resources, a phenomenon frequently mentioned by people who speak at Google. The idea is innovation will meet energy and resource needs in a just in time fashion because we've been spoiled by fossil fuels.

Transhuanism might solve this by converting carbon biomass ... ie it could eat/convert us ... That might work with some initial energy.

I can see the t-shirt now ...

But more importantly what I see going on around me doesn't point toward a high tech future.

Kids are going to junior colleges and working on shared computers at the library.

They are going to technical schools because service trades like plumbing and HVAC are under served - we have too many college graduates ... and no robots in sight to take these jobs ... illegal labor, minimum wage. Etc robots would have to come damn cheap and be general purpose to compete against human intelligence at less than $7/hr sometimes much less.

I haven't seem any discussion of these issues - just links to isolated projects.

Selection happens in a complex way - we have to have campaigns (and laws - in Arkansas police can pull you over for not wearing a seat belt - primary offense) and of course "natural" selection doesn't play a role … so for any new product or idea, advertising … Google can buy Kurzweill or a dozen Kurzweills, Kurzweill can't buy Google and won't be autonomous … people who are good at the practical stuff make a lot of the decisions over the R&D guys - based on economic reasons, … Mac vs PC anyone? Blue Ray vs DVD …

In the meantime we have to figure out how to fund it, how to keep innovating in the current economic situation …. that to me is interesting to think about, less so the technology because in a way its arbitrary, there are lots of potentially good models, but I think they will be less determinative than these other factors.


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[smcder]

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[smcder]

We're such a bunch of guys - prostitution ... OK, but what about reproduction? Women who want to have children, that unique bond - or will we just simulate that?

That could be a hard sell. Interesting, so many interesting questions.

Probably best to use force at some point in terms of many of these issues - inevitable, I think.

 

[mike]

We're such a bunch of guys - prostitution ... OK, but what about reproduction? Women who want to have children, that unique bond - or will we just simulate that?

That could be a hard sell. Interesting, so many interesting questions.

Probably best to use force at some point in terms of many of these issues - inevitable, I think.

I'm only guessing of course , but i imagine the two societies will function side by side for a long time.

Just as societys have adjusted to mixed race and later LGBT couples , so too will it adjust to SI and PB citizens.

Universal acceptance isnt likely in the near future, there will be people who for various reasons object.

Some people will refuse to interact with uploads, just as they do today with various groups

 

[mike]

So the robotic prostitutes will not be conscious or will be programmed to like sex with strangers ... or ... ? Can they look like 12 yr olds?

I'll read the article.

Not sure about that moral principle. It's a bit mystical.

And a bit Streiber ... but I'll think on it.


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I imagine that in order to compete with biologicals, the simmys will need to be as good as biologicals in all aspects. we already have a "real doll" industry so i doubt if animating them and giving them simulated intellect will detract from that current situation.

There is a moral minefield associated with this aspect of the discussion, but those same issues are just as real when we talk about biologicals

The major difference will be does the SI have the same rights as a biological, and if the answer is yes. have we really avoided the degradation/exploitation aspects