The Extraterrestrial Hypothesis : Fact and Fallacy

[marduk]

Your humour helps this forum along immensely.

They seem indifferent at best to our plights, and they also like to show off a lot. Maybe that's how we appear to butterflies or birds as we catch them in our nets? They don't seem interested in stealing or blowing the place up, nor do they save us from poisoning the planet with radioacrive waste and plastic. So indifference works for me. And maybe you can't stop yourself from being rather enigmatic to a limited life form still stuck abusing oil based energy. So just for kicks they play cat and mouse and celestial theatre with us for their own amusement. Maybe the message is so simple and complex at once that they are completely befuddled as to why we haven't figured it all out yet?

Are we abusing oil energy? Did we abuse cow shit during the Middle Ages when we burned that?

Maybe they’re not here for anything to do with us at all, and they just don’t care what we think of them at all.

 

[Burnt State]

Are we abusing oil energy? Did we abuse cow shit during the Middle Ages when we burned that?

Maybe they’re not here for anything to do with us at all, and they just don’t care what we think of them at all.

Well not to descend into environmentalism here on the ETH thread but there's a substantial difference to the carbon cycle when we drill into the planet to send captured carbon back into the atmosphere as they pump through our industrial machines vs. collecting the odd bits of dung to keep the hut warm.

But yea I agree I don't think they care about us one bit. We are a curiosity at best.

 

[marduk]

Well not to descend into environmentalism here on the ETH thread but there's a substantial difference to the carbon cycle when we drill into the planet to send captured carbon back into the atmosphere as they pump through our industrial machines vs. collecting the odd bits of dung to keep the hut warm.

But yea I agree I don't think they care about us one bit. We are a curiosity at best.

I had a really good chat with Randall a few months ago, and one of our musings is what would have happened if we developed antigravity during the middle ages.

Imagine knights popping out of some iron spaceship on some alien world going "tally ho" and skewering a few natives with wooden lances before trying to convert them to whatever version of christianity suited them at the moment. They may spend more time arguing amongst themselves than having any kind of coordinated effort to subjugate, or uplift, or do anything at all with the locals.

A civilization somewhere analogous to our early 1900's would be well and truly baffled by what they were doing. And something like that may be what we are seeing.

Our technology may be much more advanced than theirs in some areas. They may have no idea how to gather large groups of individuals and get them to cooperate on large projects. They may have no concept of the scientific method. They may just have a knack for building spaceships and funny light effects and be here because Earth is a really nice shade of blue.

Maybe as a society they're essentially feudal. Or wildly capitalistic in the truest sense - the only thing that matters is the individual.

But currently I think one of our greatest mistakes in our navel gazing about this phenomena is that they're super awesome at whatever it is that they do. Because the more I think about it, the more they seem to suck at a lot of things.

 

[ALPHA ROMEO UNIFORM]

Perception mangment (name calling, ridicle and attack the people not the information )/social enginering Classical Sociological Theory and Social Engineering – Sociology’s Canon and the Myrdals’ Classics (IV/IV) | their activity. Ricdicle by folks who never encounters of paranormal activity or have experince the force themselves to embrassed to admit it. Yes there has been sightings of so called ghost clothed such as the Roman Soldier in Wales during the 1960s , WW1 and ghost planes which cannot be explained durung combat missions. Not ignoring famous people who still follow the subject of the paranormaland vist the sites to read the posts.

 

[Constance]

They don't care about our government or to the extent they do, they're opposed. Look at Moncla, and Malmstrom.

I think it's most unlikely that we would have been informed about it publicly if direct, formal, unambiguous communications had been made by extraterrestrials to any earth governments or, if they had surveilled earth sufficiently over decades, to the UN. But I think there's extensive evidence that one or more ET species have repeatedly (over six decades now) demonstrated concern and clear warnings regarding the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons on earth, at missile sites here and in Russia; at nuclear research sites here in the US beginning in the early 1940s; and at nuclear weapons storage bases located in the US, UK, and Russia during the Cold War. The clear intention expressed by ufos shutting down numerous nuclear missiles along the northern tier of states in this country over the last six decades, with similar interventions in Russian missiles, is unmistakably consistent with the repeated warnings conveyed over the last half-century to humans encountering aliens on the ground on several continents that we are destroying our planet's ecology.

 

[Trajanus]

I think it's most unlikely that we would have been informed about it publicly if direct, formal, unambiguous communications had been made by extraterrestrials to any earth governments or, if they had surveilled earth sufficiently over decades, to the UN. But I think there's extensive evidence that one or more ET species have repeatedly (over six decades now) demonstrated concern and clear warnings regarding the use and proliferation of nuclear weapons on earth, at missile sites here and in Russia; at nuclear research sites here in the US beginning in the early 1940s; and at nuclear weapons storage bases located in the US, UK, and Russia during the Cold War. The clear intention expressed by ufos shutting down numerous nuclear missiles along the northern tier of states in this country over the last six decades, with similar interventions in Russian missiles, is unmistakably consistent with the repeated warnings conveyed over the last half-century to humans encountering aliens on the ground on several continents that we are destroying our planet's ecology.

It is precisely because ETs have shut down missiles, and even caused fatalities among military personnel, that I doubt there's been direct communication between government and aliens. Had that occurred, there wouldn't be a need to get a message across by means of forceful action.
Some aliens appear concerned about what we're doing to this planet. But with regard to incidents like Malmstrom I think the intent is to warn us not to go too far with offensive nuclear capability. Or, don't get any ideas you can stop us with it.

 

[Trajanus]

So subtle that they've been reported for perhaps hundreds or thousands of years and they still run away when we chase them?

There's subtle and then there's just ineffective.

They can be very effective, even deadly. I'm not sure the older reports pertain to ETs and in any event, their covert (essentially) plan may take centuries--not much on a galactic time scale.

If they wanted to be covert then we wouldn't know they were there at all.

Well, it can be tough to remain hidden when there's so much to do. Many ETs probably thought no one saw them until they noticed a witness and took off.

Our power structures clearly disinterest them.

From what I can gather, they seem to be disdainful of governments and even hostile toward them.

 

[Trajanus]

Our technology may be much more advanced than theirs in some areas.

There are actually reports which seem to indicate this. On the whole, however, they seem much more advanced.

Or wildly capitalistic in the truest sense - the only thing that matters is the individual.

I very much doubt the latter. Streiber referred to a "hive mentality" which wouldn't be surprising; had they been truly autonomous individuals, by now one probably would've defected and "spilled the beans" so to speak.

 

[Trajanus]

Maybe they’re not here for anything to do with us at all, and they just don’t care what we think of them at all.

They may not care what we think of them but they do care about what we are and do. Besides the abductions and examinations, admonitions about the environment, even an occasional healing suggest this.

 

[marduk]

marduk,
The idea of science is search for new discoveries and fact you given four examples of what might give a clue of unknown forces which make up our World and Universe (New Star War's movie coming out next month)
The twenty years to find life in our solar system or beyond ?
NASA will do better than that with funding injections or will they be pipped at the post by Brazil, China, India, EU, UK , Russia etc
Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx)

Sure, but science would have dried up and blown away a long time ago if it didn’t pose a reproductive or economic benefit.

Science for science’s sake alone doesn’t get done for very long.

 

[marduk]

They may not care what we think of them but they do care about what we are and do. Besides the abductions and examinations, admonitions about the environment, even an occasional healing suggest this.

Again, unclear messages. I’ve looked one of these bastards right in the eye.

It didn’t say a damn word to me or communicate anything else. But I got the sense that it was both terrified and fascinated.

And extremely dangerous.

That’s the only feelings I got from it, and that’s assuming they’re correctly interpreted at all.

 

[ALPHA ROMEO UNIFORM]

Sure, but science would have dried up and blown away a long time ago if it didn’t pose a reproductive or economic benefit.

Science for science’s sake alone doesn’t get done for very long.

Indeed , UFOs and warfare with science discoveries go hand in hand going by historical eyewitness accounants as long as they are credible. Paranormal activity asuch as poltergiest events have scientist scratching their heads. The odd events of falling rocks and flying glasses, motor cars and boats turning off during some cases of UFO sightings will A.I. give some clues to the its actions with new discoveries in space and finding other intelligent life forms? Also did Bentwaters Case have missing personnel prior to the event or civilians . How many civilians were caught on the NATO US Base that year without permission. For example anti-nuclear demostrators? Did all the US vehciles and aircraft stop on the base at the time of the event ? How many personnel suffered with migranies during the episode? Where any of the US. Medical staff interview after the event or following years? Also civilian medical staff? Did all the wild life stop making sounds? Where their evactuation drills prior and after the event and were their many deer etc mutilations weeks leading up to the UFO event? What were the coastal tides during that time and space mission? How nuclear test were being done around the World. For example. Pakistan and India.

 

[Trajanus]

But I got the sense that it was both terrified and fascinated.

And extremely dangerous.

All three appear consistent with much of what ETs do, from running away (if surprised) and shutting down nukes to mutilations.

 

[Trajanus]

Also did Bentwaters Case have missing personnel prior to the event or civilians .

Don't recall reading about that.

Did all the US vehciles and aircraft stop on the base at the time of the event ?

No, some were soon in use.

Did all the wild life stop making sounds? Where their evactuation drills prior and after the event and were their many deer etc mutilations weeks leading up to the UFO event?

Don't recall such things associated with this case.

 

[ALPHA ROMEO UNIFORM]

Trajanus,
Just asking questions and pure speculation if the phenomena is intelligents pre-observations would be its modus operandi and that NATO base is massive. Not some listening station,

 

[Trajanus]

if the phenomena is intelligents pre-observations would be its modus operandi

Of course. But that needn't involve abductions, mutilations or stopping vehicles.

 

[Thomas R Morrison]

The August 13th 2017 episode featuring many long term luminaries in the field, along with the After the Paracast episode, highlights how all of these hardcore and well regarded researchers moved away from the ETH and towards a much more evolved and nuanced approach to trying to understand what experience anomalies are.

Let’s just ignore your implication here that advocates of the ETH have a crude and unevolved approach. I went back and listened to this episode again, because you seem to feel that the opinions expressed against the ETH in this show have some special merit. [If anyone wants to listen for the content pertaining to this subject, it starts around the 66-minute mark…the first hour is all about personal histories and McCarthyism and such].

Naturally I’m always dubious when I’m directed to listen to, or to read, somebody else’s defense of a position, because as I see it, it works like this: if somebody has arrived at a well-founded opinion by fully understanding it as well as the objections to it, then they can defend it themselves in a compelling manner via logic and facts. If they can’t (or don’t) do that, then the foundation of their opinion is suspect. The value of one’s opinion is entirely measured by the capacity to personally and convincingly defend it in a vigorous debate.

So what were some of the rationale for dismissing the ETH that we heard in that show? Here’s a sample of the objections that I heard, summarized in my own words, and why they’re wrong.

- “UFOs are seen in our sky, not in transit from other stars, so they must be local rather than extraterrestrial in origin.” An amateur astronomer could easily explain why we wouldn’t see a UFO arriving from deep space: unless they’re huge and/or bright and moving very slowly (v<<c), there’s essentially no chance that we’d see them en route to us. I remember walking one night in Pasadena when a meteor the size of a school bus burned up almost directly overhead in a blaze of glory that turned night into day for a few moments. Astronomers didn’t detect it until it streaked across the sky like a small sun. And it was going much less than the speed of light, so it would've been easier to detect than if it had been moving a significant fraction of light speed. And an object arriving at superluminal speeds, as we anticipate with the kind of field propulsion principle that these objects clearly appear to employ (i.e. no emissions, exhibiting levitation and dramatic accelerations), would arrive before the light emitted along its journey arrived. And when the light did arrive (presumably at the moment the craft first appears near the Earth), it would be very faint and very brief, like a very dim flash that rapidly recedes and disappears backward toward its origin (superluminal spaceflight generates optical artifacts - a sort of mirage, which in this case includes an image of the craft that appears to move backward in time and through space close to the speed of light toward its origin). So it would be virtually impossible to witness such a thing without very sensitive high-resolution coverage of the entire celestial sphere, which we don’t have - and not even close. The only interplanetary objects that we can detect in the solar system today are large, reflective, and following very slow and predictable orbits around the Sun - this is a pretty big problem actually because there are countless asteroids the size of a school bus and larger that we can't currently detect in near-Earth vicinity, which could cause substantial damage upon impact. And if an object were coming directly toward tour solar system, even it were glowing quite brightly, it would be indistinguishable against the background of billions of stars and galaxies in space – and we’d have to focus on it directly, and take its specific light spectrum, to determine that it’s not a star or distant galaxy/nebula/etc. So the presumption that we’d observe these devices arriving from deep space is totally unfounded.

- “Interstellar distances, and certainly intergalactic distances, are inconceivably vast and not traversable.” This only applies to reaction propulsion systems like rockets. We’ve known for decades that metric propulsion systems are theoretically possible within the context of general relativity, and such a system not only has no upper speed limit - even in theory, but once the field is set up it costs no energy beyond system losses to run indefinitely. So the distance and energy arguments are, by what is arguably the best physics theory in history, obsolete. This is all peer-reviewed academic physics, not idle speculation, and I feel that anyone who would claim the mantle of ufological expertise should be well-informed about the physics of interstellar spaceflight, if only to mount a compelling argument against it.

- “UFO sightings have been going on since the dawn of human history, apparently. Therefore they’re not likely to be interstellar in origin.” Statement 2 doesn’t follow from Statement 1. The ETH posits that technological civilizations are not very rare in the galaxy/universe, and may in fact be quite common – perhaps thousands of advanced civilizations inhabit our galaxy alone. And most of those that have reached our level of advancement have probably vastly exceeded it by many thousands if not millions of years. Therefore, the ETH favors the view that the Earth has likely been visited by our more advanced neighbors for many eons, at least.

- “The many-worlds interpretation and/or ‘the other dimensions hypothesis’ provides a superior explanation.” Let’s set aside misconceptions about the many-worlds interpretation, and simply ask instead “why in the world would anyone conclude that an explanation entailing travel from another reality seems more likely than travel from another star?” That makes no logical sense – if one can travel from another reality, then surely travel between the stars would be child’s play. So if this has ever actually happened, then for every “interdimensional” visitation we should expect hundreds if not thousands if interstellar visitations. Which puts us right back to an argument that favors the ETH over “extradimensional” travelers.

- “The old-timers tend to favor non-ETH explanations.” It’s a logical fallacy to think that popularity is a substitute for a rational argument. And there are better explanations for this anyway – for example, most of the men in this episode formed their opinions on this subject in the 60s and 70s…before we knew that warm Earth-like planets and the building blocks of biological life are ubiquitous throughout the universe, and before we learned that the metric propulsion principle solves the distance and energy problems associated with interstellar spaceflight. So it’s not surprising that the ETH seemed unlikely forty years ago, and that the people of that era rejected it based on the more limited knowledge of that time. But these men also agreed that ufologists would be better off studying the humanities in college, rather than hard sciences like astronomy and physics and biology. Which is a crazy position, imo. How many observational mysteries have been solved by folktale professors and history graduates – approximately zero, right? If you want to explain an observation, then you need hard scientists and the right (often expensive) equipment to collect as much diverse and precise data as possible, and to then analyze that data in the vibrant adversarial setting of the peer review process. That’s how you figure out what’s going on. Only if you fail to find a physical explanation after an exhaustive scientific study, which has never happened with the UFO subject (not in the public sector anyway), do you then begin to consider psychological or philosophical alternatives. Imagine if we’d tried to figure out ball lighting using philosophy graduates instead of plasma physicists – I’m sure they would’ve come up with lots of fun and bizarre theories, but they wouldn’t have arrived at the correct phenomenological explanation that we have today.

The cases i cite are but a handful of the innumerable surreal cases; truly when you look at close encounter cases, and not just lights in the sky events, the closer you get to a ship or a humanoid the more it seems reality breaks down. The significant cases involve very distessing net effects for the witness, the encounter often follows dream logic and appears as an altered state experience. I used the Portage County case and Emilcin in my essay inside Reframing The Debate to outline just how hallucinatory these experiences are. Please consider listening to Wendy O'Conners' Faded Discs collection, especially the CE case reports from witnesses recorded immediately after they happened. The Pascagoula Case, Denchmont Woods case, Kelly-Hopkinsville, Bentwaters, Michalak, most Police cases all demonstrate very surreal encounters with profound effects on witnesses. A significant strain of thinking in Ufology increasingly talks about the role of the witness in the study of the field. I also encourage reading Greg Bishop's essay in Reframing the Debate as a definitive history of the field as well as some very insightful directions forward.

The Portage County case reads like a classic ufo sighting of a solid technological device, and the Emilcin case reads like a classic close encounter. Both of them strike me as evidence in favor of the ETH (though I haven’t examined these cases closely enough to estimate their veracity).

Perhaps if you provided links to some of these references, we could see what you find so inexplicable about them that the ETH seems an insufficient explanation.

I have a hard time imagining any close and interactive encounter with an intelligent alien being that wouldn’t seem “surreal.” In all seriousness – how could anyone be expected to meet little people with big heads and black eyes, or tall reptilian-looking beings in flight suits, and not be completely freaked out? I’ve considered this subject earnestly for over forty years, and I still think I’d panic if I actually encountered an alien being in person. And most people have never even considered the prospect of actually meeting such a creature; it would defy reason to expect any human being to confront an alien and *not* experience a significant level of psychological shock, and therefore subsequently use phrases like “it felt like a dream” and soforth.

So I am looking for practical ways to explain the paranormal experience and because the most critical of the ufo experiences, the close encounter case, is so interwoven with high strangeness and distorted experiences of reality it is best described as paranormal in nature. This helps to separate it from the normal light in the sky witness event that leaves no noticeable dramatic impact on the perceiver at the time nor does it leave the same long term lasting effects on various aspects of witness' lives.

As I’ve stated previously, my sighting of two lights in the bright daytime sky, watching these things zig-zag in perfect formation at high speed, dramatically changed my life and set me on a tireless quest to understand the physics that made those maneuvers possible. So I know for a fact and from personal experience that long-range sightings can have dramatic and permanent effects on one’s life, and even personality. And I’m very thankful for it – if not for my own sighting, I would definitely have been an even more ruthlessly skeptical and cynical jerk than I am today, and I would probably be scoffing at ufo reports instead of persistently striving to understand the physics behind them.

And nothing is “best described as paranormal in nature” because “paranormal” isn’t an explanation; it’s a placeholder for an explanation that’s missing. So it’s more honest for a person to simply say “I don’t have an explanation” than it is to say “the explanation is paranormal in nature.”

I think it’s also a mistake to take the smallest subset of reports, to try to draw a conclusion about the phenomenon as a whole. That’s like trying to understand a beach by examining a few grains of sand – and without actually knowing if any of those grains of sand are actually sand, or something else entirely.

Close encounter reports are indeed often fascinating. Interestingly, in nearly every case where such a report suggests that trace evidence should be found, it is. So they seem to conform to the same real and very physical paradigm of other kinds of cases, which also involve physical detection via radar and whatnot. In fact I have yet to hear about any credible ufo case (as far as I can recall anyway), close encounter or otherwise, that can’t be reasonably explained via the ETH. Even the very bizarre Bentwaters incident featured a solid craft with strange markings, that emitted bright light, and left a triangular set of landing impressions. The strangest thing that I recall about that case was the way the craft appeared to break into several luminous parts in the sky - but that could’ve simply been the release of several small luminous drones. I love Col. Halt’s tape recording - to me, it sounds exactly like what we’d expect to hear from an ordinary guy encountering an alien probe from a civilization thousands of years or more ahead of ours. I bet if a Native American five thousand years ago had encountered a Blackhawk helicopter flying around the woods at night and landing, then taking off again, he would’ve responded in a nearly identical manner.

 

[Constance]

Excellent post, @Thomas. I think we are all in your debt for your sharing here the depth of your knowledge re the history of ufo events and your insights into that which has by now been scientifically understood about the physical reality of many ufos and the underlying physics of their capabilities as widely witnessed near and on earth. You are also exceptionally skilled as a writer dealing with and clarifying these complex matters. Many thanks.

 

[marduk]

About the distance: it’s not really a fundamental problem. It’s a lack of imagination.

We could put a Voyager sized spacecraft in another star system if we waited a few thousand years for it to get there.

In a few hundred years, even still with chemical or nuclear power, we could put an artificially intelligent Voyager sized spacecraft in another star system in a few thousand years. One that can think for itself, solve for how to analyse it’s environment, use local materials to create more probes that are purpose built for their environment, then replicate itself and move on. Maybe they even take some frozen eggs to build humans from if the system is viable for them to live in.

Why we think that’s all that different from what people are seeing - at least conceptually - I have no idea.

 

[ALPHA ROMEO UNIFORM]

Of course. But that needn't involve abductions, mutilations or stopping vehicles.

Firstly, the unknown activity of event ?at Bentwaters which all is pure speculation until all the so called classified documents are released officially. Credible, eyewitness testimony by US Veterans especially higher ranking officers gives clues the unknown force was able to create such a disruption on a NATO base. The fact asking questions of the abduction which was not what I was refering too rather folks being kidnapped or going AWL. Secondly, mutilations could have a simple answer foot and mouth disease outbreaks during that period farmers disposed of large amounts in woodlands in pits. Stopping vehicles is more important question was any so called EMP exercise it would've affected the whole base and grounded all fighter aircraft. ETH is still are credible option and not ignoring advance technology either. Also if it was so called ETH a advance intelligence might do a recon more than once over such a high target . https://www.premierchristianradio.com/Shows/Saturday/Unbelievable/Episodes/Unbelievable-17-Apr-2010-Are-we-alone-in-the-universe-Paul-Davies-John-Lennox Therefore, Bentwaters Case needs to look at previous incidents around the base and abductions (sleep paralysis more likely). Also who hell knowns we are looking at the ETH from a human perspective which of course our only option until A.I. arrives. http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2010/01/stephen-hawking-the-human-species-has-entered-a-new-stage-of-evolution-the-daily-galaxy-top-story-of.html Look at Pluto and its hidden secrets which will they find life or not? Not interested in the babblestate skeptic agenda rather seeking answers are we alone or not? . Pluto mission chief still can’t believe they really did it Also we are surrounded by unanswered questions about space still .Bacterium calls for biology rewrite