From The NY Times: The Pentagon's Secret UFO Program

[Constance]

totally agree. the chilean UFO debunk has become a faux rosetta stone used to debunk the nimitz/NYT events merely because leslie kean is associated with both. unlike many in the field (talking to you steven greer) ms. kean has shown herself to be professional, thorough and sober in her reporting of UAPs through the years.

I also agree. I'm wondering if @Hollywood Tomfortas has read Kean's book or is aware of her many years of research bringing the UAP/ufo subject to readers of major news publications. I'm also wondering if what he brings to online ufo chat is influenced by a prior career as a Hollywood gossip columnist.

Concerning this claim of his re the Chilean video --

"That video has conclusively been shown to depict a distant jet aircraft whose position had been misjudged."

the word 'conclusively' is an overstatement as demonstrated in the many qualifying phrases appearing in the debunker's own text.

 

[Thomas R Morrison]

Metabunk seems to have tried to debunk the Nimitz event as well:

2004 USS Nimitz Tic Tac UFO FLIR footage

In what I consider typical fashion for that site, it seems the site owner has basically decided from the get-go it has to be a distant plane just like in Chile, and whatever doesn't fit that (basically the whole backstory) can simply be ignored or explained away by saying it's not related or such (including radar returns from several days, that the object was found where the radar showed it would be, and what the pilots actually claimed to see in daylight with their own eyes). One of the moderators even states there that:

So their way of investigation and even some sort of site policy seems to be to take the easy piece and close your eyes from the rest, and also use that as an excuse so that they don't need to call the pilots liars, daydreamers or something like that. Several messages also seem to mistakenly assume it was Fravor's jet that shot the video.

They seem to have followed a similar approach for that Gimpal video, so basically assume it's a plane and/or IR flare and assume there's no backstory (as none is known at the moment) and disregard things like radar returns that indicated there was a fleet of objects.

That’s all true, but I don’t hold it against them at all – they’re doing some good work over there by presenting the adversarial side of the argument, the “extremely skeptical” position. I can relate to that position – if I hadn’t watched a pair of these things zigzagging across the daytime sky in perfect formation at high speed, alongside several of my neighbors one fine day as a boy, I’d probably be an active member over at Metabunk.org, instead of here at The Paracast forums.

They’ve provided some useful work on this case – they proved that the halo in the GIMBAL footage is simply IR glare, and they showed how a pair of jet engines filmed from the rear can look like a single object resembling what we see in that footage, and they showed how the weird rotating maneuver could be caused by a combination of a tilting FLIR camera, a slight smudge on the lens, and an image realignment within the system. And they shared a video that handily debunked Bruce MacCabee’s credulous and misguided analysis of the Nimitz incident video’s “rapid acceleration” that never happened. That’s all good scientific work.

From the skeptical position, verbal accounts don’t qualify as evidence, so they ignore it. We can’t scientifically scrutinize anecdotal evidence like the pilot accounts and the testimony of the radar operators, etc.

As a witness I think it’s unduly ruthless and dismissive to disqualify the expert testimony of our top military pilots, and the conclusions of a man like Luis Elizondo who spent years investigating these kinds of cases at the Pentagon and issued dozens of technical reports on this subject. But scientifically I understand why they do it.

So I want the evidence and analyses from the AATIP program to be released. Because the scientific credibility of this topic is way too important to hinge on verbal testimony. And as much as it pains me to say it, at this point, it does.

 

[Flatwoods]

interesting thanks for posting. question- how would the vortex jibe with the on-board rader and ground based radar which tracked the object at 80,000' and then down the surface of the ocean?

Great question! I considered the issue of the anomalous radar data when I came up with this theory, but I am willing to dismiss it (for now) because the government hasn’t released any of that data. There's no way to conclusively match the radar returns to the visually-observed phenomena. Instead, my theory the tackles the UFO sighting alone, and depends on the merits of the story as it’s been told. I also admit that my theory is complete speculation, and not perfect by any means. It hinges on a number of questions that still need to be answered, such as the following:

Did the first F-18 to arrive on the scene see the water disturbance immediately, or did it make a couple of passes before the pilot noticed something?

Can the passing of an F-18 cause such a waterspout to develop at the altitude it was flying? What are the physics involved in that?

With regard to Cmdr. Fravor’s claim that the object left the area at extreme velocity...at exactly what point did he lose sight of the object? I've read conflicting versions of this.

These are the kinds of questions I’d like to see answered in a complete investigation and report combining video evidence, radar data, witness testimony and a minute-by-minute account of events with input from experts in physics, aviation, meteorology, and any other relevant field. However...

We aren’t getting that, are we?

What we have instead are a couple of FLIR videos of questionable origin, a handful of three-minute witness interviews, and a second-hand retelling of the events in a lengthy Fightersweep blog article. That’s it, and it begs the question, has there been any competent investigation of this sighting done by anyone? At this time, we haven’t seen it.

That said, I’m also willing to give the fighter pilots the benefit of the doubt. They’ve gone on the record to say they were sent to a location in Pacific ocean, and when they got there they observed a phenomenon that they can’t explain. I believe them, but I also think it was a phenomenon that they (inadvertently) created.

 

[mike]

This is an interesting set of quotes:

On the one hand this guy Andre Milne head of Unicorn Aerospace says area 51 is nothing special

He says one of Area 51's main purposes is to test Russian warplanes to ensure the US stays one step ahead of its Cold War rival.

Mr Milne claimed the US Airforce (USAF) uses Area 51 to study Russian fighter jets - something that used to be done by The 4477th Test and Evaluation Squadron at various locations until it was formally disbanded in July 1990.

What happens in Area 51? Insider spills beans on mysterious top-secret base

That's Feb of 2017, so hes not a dyed in the wool true believer.

But his take on this matter is different.

Andre Milne, founder of defense technology firm Unicorn Aerospace, which describes itself as "the world's leading developer of advanced navigation technology", said the Nimitz UFO case is a first for the US Government.

He told Express.co.uk: “You know, this technically qualifies as UFO disclosure by the US Department of Defense.”

That's December of 2017.

 

[mike]

Great question! I considered the issue of the anomalous radar data when I came up with this theory

So the narrative thus far is the ship had radar contact but the f/a-18's had their radar blocked.

Another plane that launched from the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz around the same time had its radar jammed and was able to pick up the object on an infrared channel.

Its also worth making the point the pilots saw these objects with their naked eyes

“We look down, we see a white disturbance in the water, like something's under the surface, and the waves are breaking over, but we see next to it, and it's flying around, and it's this little white Tic Tac, and it's moving around — left, right, forward, back, just random," he said.

The object didn't display the rotor wash typical of a helicopter or jet wash from a plane, he said.

The planes flew lower to investigate the object, which started to mirror their movements before disappearing, Fravor said. "As we start to cut across, it rapidly accelerates, climbs past our altitude and disappears," Fravor recalled.

"When it started to near us, as we started to descend towards it coming up, it was flying in the elongated way, so it's [like] a Tic Tac, with the roundish end going in the forward direction ... I don't know what it is. I don't know what I saw. I just know it was really impressive, really fast, and I would like to fly it," he said.

after 18 years of flying, I've seen pretty much about everything that I can see in that realm, and this was nothing close."

Navy pilot recalls encounter with UFO: 'I think it was not from this world'

The weather is mentioned in the article too

He recalled flying his F/A-18 fighter on a training mission on a beautiful Southern California day 13 years ago when things started to get strange.

Controllers on one of the Navy ships on the water below reported objects that were dropping out of the sky from 80,000 feet and going "straight back up," Fravor said.

They had been tracking these events for two weeks.................

For two weeks, the operator said, the Princeton had been tracking mysterious aircraft. The objects appeared suddenly at 80,000 feet, and then hurtled toward the sea, eventually stopping at 20,000 feet and hovering. Then they either dropped out of radar range or shot straight back up

NEITHER FAST EAGLES 110 OR 100 COULD ACHIEVE RADAR LOCK OR ANY OTHER MEANS OF POSITIVE ID..

FAST EAGLES (110/100) COULD NOT FIND UNID AIRBORNE CONTACT AT LOCATION GIVEN BY PRINCETON. WHILE SEARCHING FOR UNID AIR CONTACT, FAST EAGLES SPOTTED LARGE UNID OBJECT IN WATER AT 1430L. PILOTS SAW STEAM/ SMOKE/CHURNING AROUND OBJECT. PILOT DESCRIBES OBJECT INITIALLY AS RESEMBLING A DOWNED AIRLINER, ALSO STATED THAT IT WAS MUCH LARGER THAN A SUBMARINE.
WHILE DESCENDING FROM 24K FT TO GAIN A BETTER VIEW OF THE UNID CONTACT IN THE WATER, FAST EAGLE 110 SIGHTED AN AIRBORNE CONTACT WHICH APPEARED TO BE CAPSULE SHAPED (WINGLESS, MOBILE, WHITE, OBLONG PILL SHAPED, 25-30 FEET IN LENGTH, NO VISIBLE MARKINGS AND NO GLASS) 5NM WEST FROM POSITION OF UNID OBJECT IN WATER.

That Time the U.S. Navy Had a Close Encounter With a UFO

The waterspout/fiberglass hull of a wreck idea, doesn't strike me as consistent with the narrative that this behavior had been going on for 2 weeks.

 

[Christopher O'Brien]

The descriptions of the object remind me of my March 27, 2005 (3:00 pm) daylight sighting of a 30' flying chicken egg (traveling S to N up Oak Creek Canyon in Sedona). To another observer it coulda looked like a tic-tac.

 

[Realm]

From the skeptical position, verbal accounts don’t qualify as evidence, so they ignore it. We can’t scientifically scrutinize anecdotal evidence like the pilot accounts and the testimony of the radar operators, etc.

I agree, and I don't consider those accounts scientific evidence, and I consider my own position to be scientific and skeptical. But I regard them as the best and most interesting available material we have (sadly).

If we look just that video in vacuum, we more or less see a blob that could be pretty much anything. I don't believe either side of the debate can gain much from the video alone. So if they debunk that by showing a similar blob can be produced by making assumptions about a plane that happened to be there or some quirk of the camera that could have happened and so on, what are they actually debunking? A "what if" scenario for whose assumptions there is no evidence? And if they dismiss other parts of the story by assuming they were not related, what evidence is there that the video wasn't that unrelated part? After all, it wasn't shot by Fravor's jet and its origin is still somewhat questionable, and it could for example actually show how another jet mistakenly filmed some airplane as the target.

I'm trying to say it goes both ways. If they make such selections and assumptions, their results are about them as well, not the whole story. They should be likewise skeptical about their own assumptions as well. And in my view explaining the whole story necessitates saying something less than flattering about Fravor and others. As you said:

As a witness I think it’s unduly ruthless and dismissive to disqualify the expert testimony of our top military pilots

In practice they do that now, but don't dare to say it. And in my opinion that needs to be said if something like what they suggest is supposed to work as an explanation for the story as a whole.

I can relate to that position – if I hadn’t watched a pair of these things zigzagging across the daytime sky in perfect formation at high speed, alongside several of my neighbors one fine day as a boy

Sounds fascinating. Have you described that somewhere in more detail?

 

[mike]

PILOT DESCRIBES OBJECT INITIALLY AS RESEMBLING A DOWNED AIRLINER, ALSO STATED THAT IT WAS MUCH LARGER THAN A SUBMARINE.
WHILE DESCENDING FROM 24K FT TO GAIN A BETTER VIEW OF THE UNID CONTACT IN THE WATER, FAST EAGLE 110 SIGHTED AN AIRBORNE CONTACT WHICH APPEARED TO BE CAPSULE SHAPED (WINGLESS, MOBILE, WHITE, OBLONG PILL SHAPED, 25-30 FEET IN LENGTH, NO VISIBLE MARKINGS AND NO GLASS)

Is also similar to Davids sighting of a cigar shaped large craft with smaller ones in attendance .

 

[Flatwoods]

The waterspout/fiberglass hull of a wreck idea, doesn't strike me as consistent with the narrative that this behavior had been going on for 2 weeks.

I agree, it's not consistent if what was being tracked on radar for two weeks is the very same phenomenon that was visually observed in the sighting. My problem with that... none of the other radar events involved a sighting of anything. No UFOs, nothing. Just this one instance in which some F-18 were sent to observe a strange radar signature. And when the first F-18 arrived, it's pilot saw nothing. No flying object whatsoever, just a disturbance on the surface of the water. Cmdr. Fravor was the first to observe a UFO, but he never saw it descend from 80,000 ft. What he described is the opposite - something coming out of the water and flying around in the sky.

Then again, I'm not married to my theory either. Disregard it if you like. I expect to do the same once more solid information becomes available. I hope that happens soon.

 

[Flatwoods]

PILOT DESCRIBES OBJECT INITIALLY AS RESEMBLING A DOWNED AIRLINER, ALSO STATED THAT IT WAS MUCH LARGER THAN A SUBMARINE.
WHILE DESCENDING FROM 24K FT TO GAIN A BETTER VIEW OF THE UNID CONTACT IN THE WATER, FAST EAGLE 110 SIGHTED AN AIRBORNE CONTACT WHICH APPEARED TO BE CAPSULE SHAPED (WINGLESS, MOBILE, WHITE, OBLONG PILL SHAPED, 25-30 FEET IN LENGTH, NO VISIBLE MARKINGS AND NO GLASS)

Is also similar to Davids sighting of a cigar shaped large craft with smaller ones in attendance .

Whale carcass?

This is a whale carcass:

Could something like that become airborne? It would be quite a sight!

 

[Realm]

Here's some interesting info about that Nimitz video (that you have probably already seen):

The origin of the video is uncertain, although two UFO researchers say it first appeared in 2007 on what they describe as a website run by German film students.

Researcher Isaac Kol lives in London and sometimes posts on the Web forum Above Top Secret.

He recently posted:

Back in 2007, I tracked the first online copy of the video back to the website of a group of German film students that specialized in creating science fiction movies with lots of special effects (Vision Unlimited).

His post also included, “in 2007, I was inclined to reach the tentative conclusion that it was a hoax... I find it very interesting that the current rounds of discussion seem to ignore the provenance of the footage…”

Kol told FOX5 in an email, “I don’t claim to have debunked that footage – merely shown that the place that it was originally posted raises red flags pending further evidence.”

Mystery UFO video supposedly from USS Nimitz fighter jet intrigues researchers

I presume they are talking about the same person who started this thread?

 

[mike]

And when the first F-18 arrived, it's pilot saw nothing.

The Super Hornets flew to investigate the last known location of the object and to their surprise, found two objects. The first was large and just below the surface of the water, causing the water to churn. The second object hovered just 50 feet above the water, moving erratically.

The second object suddenly rose up and flew towards the Super Hornets, with one pilot. Commander David Fravor, saying it appeared it was rising up to meet him. The Hornet turned towards the object to meet it and the object peeled away, accelerating, “like nothing I’ve ever seen,” Fravor later said.


CVW-11 EVENT SUMMARY
14 NOVEMBER 04
EVENT SUMMARY 110/100, 303/305, 401
FAST EAGLES 110/100 UPON TAKE OFF WERE VECTORED BY PRINCETON AND BANGER (1410L) TO INTERCEPT UNID CONTACT AT 160@40NM (N3050.8 W11746.9) (NIMITZ N3129.3 W11752.8). PRINCETON INFORMED FAST EAGLES THAT THE CONTACT WAS MOVING AT 100 KTS @ 25KFT ASL. FAST EAGLES (110/100) COULD NOT FIND UNID AIRBORNE CONTACT AT LOCATION GIVEN BY PRINCETON.

WHILE SEARCHING FOR UNID AIR CONTACT, FAST EAGLES SPOTTED LARGE UNID OBJECT IN WATER AT 1430L. PILOTS SAW STEAM/ SMOKE/CHURNING AROUND OBJECT. PILOT DESCRIBES OBJECT INITIALLY AS RESEMBLING A DOWNED AIRLINER, ALSO STATED THAT IT WAS MUCH LARGER THAN A SUBMARINE.

WHILE DESCENDING FROM 24K FT TO GAIN A BETTER VIEW OF THE UNID CONTACT IN THE WATER, FAST EAGLE 110 SIGHTED AN AIRBORNE CONTACT WHICH APPEARED TO BE CAPSULE SHAPED (WINGLESS, MOBILE, WHITE, OBLONG PILL SHAPED, 25-30 FEET IN LENGTH, NO VISIBLE MARKINGS AND NO GLASS) 5NM WEST FROM POSITION OF UNID OBJECT IN WATER. CAPSULE (ALT 4K FT AT COURSE 300) PASSED UNDER FAST EAGLE 110 (ALT 16KFT). FAST EAGLE 110 BEGAN TURN TO ACQUIRE CAPSULE. WHILE 110 WAS DESCENDING AND TURNING, CAPSULE BEGAN CLIMBING AND TURNED INSIDE OF FAST EAGLE’S TURN RADIUS.

PILOT ESTIMATED THAT CAPSULE ACHIEVED 600-700 KTS. FAST EAGLE 110 COULD NOT KEEP UP WITH THE RATE OF TURN AND THE GAIN OF ALTITUDE BY THE CAPSULE. 110 LOST VISUAL ID OF CAPSULE IN HAZE. LAST VISUAL CONTACT HAD CAPSULE AT 14KFT HEADING DUE EAST. NEITHER FAST EAGLES 110 OR 100 COULD ACHIEVE RADAR LOCK OR ANY OTHER MEANS OF POSITIVE ID. FAST EAGLE 100 WAS FLYING HIGH COVER AND SAW THE ENGAGEMENT BY FAST EAGLE 110. FAST EAGLE 100 CONFIRMS 110 VISUAL ID; 100 LOST CONTACT IN HAZE AS WELL.

CPA OF ACFT 110 FROM CONTACT 4000-5000 FT.

This alleged report dates back to 2007.

So from what i can deduce from what are undoubtedly garbled media reports:

Ships Radar had been tracking something odd for two weeks.
They sent two planes out who could not find the the airborn contact at the location given However both planes did spot a large underwater object emitting steam or smoke. while descending to get a better look they spot the airborne capsule shaped object.

Whale carcass......

A 747 is 75 meters long a blue whale the largest is 25 meters long. US subs range from 115 meters for an attack sub to 170 meters for the larger missile subs.

He reports it was "much larger" than a submarine. It would be helpful if someone could ask him just how long he estimated it was.

But i think we can rule out whale carcass.

 

[mike]

I presume they are talking about the same person who started this thread?

Yes that's him, good find.

I'm sure we would all like his take on this aspect.

 

[Gene Steinberg]

The media is taking a lot on faith, repeating things said by Elizondo and TTSA partners as if it were fact. I wrote this piece questioning some of the issues the reporters have overlooked:
UFOs, the Media, the Military & Dreams of Discovery

And it's the subject of this weekend's episode of After The Paracast, with Chris in full curmudgeon mode. You won't want to miss it.

 

[Realm]

I presume they are talking about the same person who started this thread?

Yes that's him, good find.

I'm sure we would all like his take on this aspect.

I traced this back to an ATS thread from 2007:

Fighter Jet UFO Footage: The Real Deal, page 1

The op there used the nick "thefinaltheory", and according to one admin who posted in that thread, he used a couple of other nicks as well. He apparently registered one day earlier and made this thread:

Observations of an Actual UFO, page 1

Where he claimed to have been on Nimitz in 2005 (not 2004) doing computer work with access to top secret network and told about an ufo event then with different details. He didn't seem to know even the proper terminology about anything he was supposed to be, his writing was full of typos (although at times it got better, as if someone else was writing), and he basically acted like a child, and was deemed hoaxer by an admin and most others.

A day after that (February 4, 2007), he made the former thread, which seemed to contain the same video that is regarded as a real deal now. He actually claimed to have 4 versions of it (although could not view them all due to codec issues or something) plus an event log (which another user with nick "cometa2" posted in full on page 9 of that thread) and a powerpoint presentation (which he didn't post there). That event log also contains descriptions similar to what we have now seen.

Isaac Koi was an active member of that thread back in 2007 and has also added new comments there recently, reminding of that thread.

So... the earliest data I have now seen about this event comes from a pretty obvious hoaxer... But then again, wherever that originally came from could be legit. Is there any evidence of that video or log having existed somewhere prior to February 4, 2007? At least nobody in that thread seemed to have such knowledge.

 

[SRL+]

A Tic-Tac, whale carcass, & chicken’s egg .., sounds like the making of a terrible riddle.

 

[mike]

A Tic-Tac, whale carcass, & chicken’s egg .., sounds like the making of a terrible riddle.

Or a very nasty omelette.

 

[SRL+]

Or a very nasty omelette.

Yes, perhaps the video provided is that of an unidentified flying omelet.

 

[Hollywood Tomfortas]

Or a very nasty omelette.

Actually, it’s one of the Appetizers on the menu for the annual dinner at the Budd Hopkins Memorial Alien Abduction Alumni Reunion. (The main entree is “Beef Bigelow” a dish prepared from the remains of cattle mutilated on the Skinwalker Ranch.)

 

[mike]

Actually, it’s one of the Appetizers on the menu for the annual dinner at the Budd Hopkins Memorial Alien Abduction Alumni Reunion. (The main entree is “Beef Bigelow” a dish prepared from the remains of cattle mutilated on the Skinwalker Ranch.)

I havent met a cat butler yet who didnt have a great sense of humour