The Official Paracast Political Thread! — Part Two

[Gene Steinberg]

Speaking of sense, when all the votes are counted, Clinton will have won the popular vote (she's leading now), which is precisely what the national polls showed. Since they usually have margins of error of several points, they will end up mostly correct. But there are still votes to be counted, including absentee and provisional ballots, which might change things slightly. But it's not likely to change the Electoral vote outcome. But imagine if it did, and what sort of outcry there'd be?

The state polls were also mostly within the margin of error, and the Pennsylvania polls showed a tightening race in the last days (one had Trump up by a single point, close to how it ended up).

So when they suggest the polls were all wrong, for the most part they were correct, again within margins of error. But state polls aren't taken as frequently, and obviously Clinton's lead in Wisconsin was nonexistent. But, again, Trump's winning margins in the states that made the difference were slight enough that a small change of views or turnout could have swung it the other way.

So in short, there's no mandate here. Whoever won with margins such as this barely got there.

 

[Gene Steinberg]

One final note. Mrs. Clinton threw away electoral votes in Wisconsin and West Virginia. She also managed to lose in Pennsylvania, a state that voted for a Democrat the last six presidential elections. That amounts to 35 electoral votes. She would have been shy just a couple of votes from 270. I suppose that was Trump's fault.

You whiners and complainers fail to comprehend that the electoral vote is what counts ultimately. You must not have paid attention in civics class.

No, she didn't throw them away. But her campaign people clearly didn't sense the extent of the working class discontent that made the difference. Remember Trump's winning margins in these critical states weren't that high.

 

[DaveM]

Clinton went into this election as if it was her turn. Her time to be coronated. Those discontented voters are the Democratic party's bread and butter. Clinton and/or her staff didn't appeal to those people.

Had she gone to Flint Michigan and told those voters she felt their pain and if elected she would have the government fix the water problem, she might very well be the president-elect right now. She made a lot of mistakes and that cost her.

 

[DaveM]

And yes, she did throw those states away. Telling West Virginians to kiss their livelihoods away, she wasn't supporting the coal business. She should have kept her mouth shut. She had Wisconsin in the bag. Why waste time going there and appealing to the voters? She made very poor choices and decisions.

 

[Gene Steinberg]

And yes, she did throw those states away. Telling West Virginians to kiss their livelihoods away, she wasn't supporting the coal business. She should have kept her mouth shut. She had Wisconsin in the bag. Why waste time going there and appealing to the voters? She made very poor choices and decisions.

She was telling the truth, but she did it the wrong way. Those jobs are not coming back, but she should have phrased it better, promising to do everything she can to help retrain them for other jobs. We are not returning to coal mines, with natural gas and better energy sources available. The coal industry has been dying, companies failing, but it's not because there is a "war on coal." No such thing. Industries change.

 

[Gene Steinberg]

Clinton went into this election as if it was her turn. Her time to be coronated. Those discontented voters are the Democratic party's bread and butter. Clinton and/or her staff didn't appeal to those people.

Had she gone to Flint Michigan and told those voters she felt their pain and if elected she would have the government fix the water problem, she might very well be the president-elect right now. She made a lot of mistakes and that cost her.

I don't know about the "entitled" belief, since that died in 2008. Remember, with all the talk of family dynasties in this country, it hasn't actually worked that way, except for Bush 41 and Bush 43. The attempt for a Bush 45 failed miserably.

The Kennedy family got their one shot. RFK might have won had he not been assassinated. What's left? Clinton, and she's done.

Obama? Now that's a possibility.

In any case, you are right that the Clinton campaign didn't make the effort to appeal to the traditional Democratic working class stronghold. A proper Flint campaign stop with a full-blown press conference would have done wonders.

Some of those people went to Trump. Many stayed home. The WikiLeaks emails show a large campaign organization micromanaging but not focusing on what was needed to do to get out the vote and overcome an unpredictable opponent.

 

[DaveM]

The Democrats better get their house in order PDQ. The Republicans have a majority in the House, Senate and also a majority of state Governors. Add the presidency to the mix and the Democrats could be the minority party for some time to come.

 

[Gene Steinberg]

If the Democrats can overcome the 2018 obstacles, they have a chance to come back. Remember the Senate majority is razor thin and one race, Louisiana, requires a runoff.

 

[Wade]

If the Democrats can overcome the 2018 obstacles, they have a chance to come back. Remember the Senate majority is razor thin and one race, Louisiana, requires a runoff.

I don't know what the historical precedents are in mid term elections but being that Trump flipped a few states this should be concerning to the Democratic party unless of course that fact that he flipped them wasn't because of any love for him or change in political philosophy than distrust of Hillary so there's some hope there I guess for the Democrats.

 

[Walter Bosley]

I think what I enjoy most about watching all the drama and angst this past week is the shock and horror the Dem side has been stricken with. It's priceless. Truly satisfying. And some of the most childish behavior I've seen from adults in a long time.

 

[Creepy Green Light]

She was telling the truth, but she did it the wrong way. Those jobs are not coming back, but she should have phrased it better, promising to do everything she can to help retrain them for other jobs. We are not returning to coal mines, with natural gas and better energy sources available. The coal industry has been dying, companies failing, but it's not because there is a "war on coal." No such thing. Industries change.

Agreed. Just like there was no "war on camera film" - but guess what? The digital camera was invented so down the toilet went all the photomats and 35mm/110 exposure film & the companies that made them. Things do change.

At the time - whoever thought that Blockbuster video and Hollywood video would be ancient, obsolete relics? Again, things change.

 

[Creepy Green Light]

Here's a serious question;

Why all the backlash with wanting to deport illegals? You're hear ILLEGALLY. And probably getting benefits of some type. I think most people have no problem with people that came to this country and went through the proper channels. Why are people in an uproar about getting rid of the illegals? By doing nothing you send the message of "Whether you come here legally or illegally - we won't do anything about it. In fact, you'll get benefits either way - so why go through the proper channels when you can just flop over the border in the middle of the night and nobody will care either way?"

I don't get it. And I guess about 50 million other Americans don't get it either (people that voted for DT).

 

[Gene Steinberg]

OK, there's a lot of fiction about the undocumented immigrant problem.

First and foremost, many, particularly Asians, simply overstay their visas. It's not all about hundreds of thousands of Mexicans crossing the border. In fact, with work conditions improving in that country, there are more Mexicans leaving the U.S. than entering. Look it up.

Several years ago, the Senate approved a bipartisan bill that enhanced border security, and provided for payment of back taxes and fines to allow people to stay here legally. They had to get to the back of the line to apply for citizenship, and wait at least ten years.

The House punted. The former Speaker of the House, John Boehner, could have allowed the bill to pass if he just brought it to the floor. But he was a coward and was afraid that the "Freedom Caucus," the far right-wingers in the House, would move to have him removed from his post. Otherwise, there would have been comprehensive immigration reform and this would not be a campaign issue or any issue.

Of course, that would have meant that Trump's key reason for entering the race wouldn't exist.

The claims that the Democrats wanted amnesty aren't true. That's a false definition of what they wanted to do, but it's designed to cause fear, appeal to the lizard brain. In other words, everything Trump said about the immigration situation was false, provably. But when you appeal to someone's fears, logic and reason disappear.

 

[mike]

This guy likes his Eff Eff Effity Eff word (NSFW), but he has some valid points

 

[mike]

So i log into facebook yesterday, and to give you an idea of how infrequently i use it, i logged in to post pictures of my new puppy at 4 months old.
My previous post was pictures of him at 3 months old.
Anyway while i was logged in this month i gave myself the half hour limit to read the feed. (my rule is 1/2 an hour per visit or FB is a massive time sink)

I was struck by how many aussie friends have defriended each other over this election result.

And the video above speaks to the same root dynamic, this is bigger than a US election. the Torys, brexit, one nation and reclaim australia partys.

The guy above nails it the left has become bullies, if you dare say anything that doesnt fit their worldview you get labeled a racist an evil ignorant sob.

Say you dont think islamic ideology is compatible with western values, you are an intolerant racist bigot.

Express concern that IF the statistics in the following are correct we should be worried
19 million Muslims for jihad...and that's just in Indonesia

Then the same, you are an intolerant racist bigot.

The bleeding heart left has become so emotive in their way of looking at the real world, they dont use intellect any more.

Classic example, was debating australias refugee intake with some left leaning people recently

"How many should we take ?" i asked when they complained Australia was heartless in its intake numbers
"all of them" was one reply
When i pointed out the UNHCR lists 60 million refugees, they said yeah "all of them"
When i said Australia has a population of 30 million and that taking 60 million refugees would stretch our taxation and social welfare systems to beyond breaking point
they replied" so you would just let those poor people suffer you bastard"
Thinking with their hearts not their heads.
And yet not one of them would go out and bring home 30 homeless people to their house and pay for their food medicine and spending money.
On a microscale they see the stupidity, the imposibility of the proposal, but on a macro scale its let them all come here.

The debate concluded with the conclusion i was a heartless bastard, a racist and a bigot.

Their intentions are good, but we know the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

 

[mike]

But the stunning US election result will resonate with even greater force throughout a continent which is already struggling to deal with a once-in-a-generation immigration crisis, stagnant economic growth and its own outbreak of anti-establishment populism that resulted in Brexit.

Britain's vote to leave the 28-nation bloc in June had already put Europe's leaders on notice that the political order was in danger of being upended. The Trump victory will erase any lingering sense of complacency as France, Germany, and the Netherlands look ahead to critical general elections next year.

Farage, who has been eyeing a job in a Trump White House, read the mood of the British better than most of his mainstream counterparts during the long and divisive EU referendum campaign. Describing the political class as "reviled throughout much of the west", the polling industry as "bankrupt" and the press as asleep, he said 2016 would go down as the year of "two great political revolutions".

The leader of the far-right National Front party in France, Marine Le Pen, who had endorsed Trump during the campaign, was just as ebullient, tweeting her congratulation to the new American president and the "free American people".



Read more: Europe's populists hail 2016's 'second great political revolution'

 

[marduk]

She was telling the truth, but she did it the wrong way. Those jobs are not coming back, but she should have phrased it better, promising to do everything she can to help retrain them for other jobs. We are not returning to coal mines, with natural gas and better energy sources available. The coal industry has been dying, companies failing, but it's not because there is a "war on coal." No such thing. Industries change.

Again this is an inability for those voters to do math.

Those jobs are not coming back. Ever.

And good riddance to them.

Go start an industry that will still exist in 20 years.

There's a small market for buggy whips these days, too.

 

[Gene Steinberg]

And phototypesetting machines.

 

[mike]

Quite correct, he wont reboot detroit and similiar situations. Some jobs just no longer exist. Its not that they went elsewhere they just dont exist in a mechanised world.
Nothing new in this. Draft horse breeders and their industry were killed off by the tractor manufacturers. Today Uber drivers are killing the Taxi industry. Tomorrow driverless vehicles will put truck drivers out of work

I predict he will take a leaf out of Hitlers book and use infrastructure projects to provide the jobs promised. He will leave at the end of his term an even worse deficit but thats nothing new. If a single president with vison had been able to fix the national debt that would have been done.
He will borrow more money use it on infrastructure, create jobs and prosperity in the short term and be popular in historys pages as a result.

No one can fix the magnitude and entirety of the US economic problems. No one.

If hes smart he will pick his battles and win small victorys knowing the war (on the deficit) was lost decades ago

You will never pay down this deficit, Your options are defer or default

Hes in it for a max of 8 years, his game plan is to be written into historys pages as a good president. I think he will defer rather than default

I predict a repeat of history

Nazi economic recovery

1. Hitler played only a minor role in the economic recovery of Germany, relying instead on advisors and bureaucrats.
2. Rearmament was a critical part of this recovery – the government ignored reparations to fund military spending.
3. There were large public works programs, such as construction, roads and autobahns, to reduce unemployment.
4. An attempt to make Germany self-sufficient and end its reliance on imports was only partly successful.
5. In 1936 Hitler ordered a Four-Year Plan, overseen by Goering, to further militarise production and prepare for war.

 

[mike]

Taking the emulsion film and typesetting machine factor to the next level

Many analysts believe that improvements in artificial intelligence and robotics will decrease the demand for human labor going forward. Whether or not that'll happen is disputed, with skeptics noting that centuries of technological improvement have thus far failed to permanently reduce employment levels. But if this time is different, and automation leaves a huge chunk of working-age adults unemployed, a basic income would prevent mass suffering among those left out. It would essentially mean "taxing the owners of the robots to support the people who are put out of work by them," as John Aziz put it in The Week.

It's also possible that capital will realize a basic income is in its interests if technological unemployment leaves too weak of a consumer base for them to which to sell their products. Former Secretary of Labor and liberal commentator Robert Reich has called a basic income "almost inevitable" on these grounds: "as productivity increases, technological change provides us with great benefits but requires fewer and fewer people to actually do the work…who's going to be the customer?"

Basic income: the world’s simplest plan to end poverty, explained

Is free money for everyone a genius idea?

Switzerland’s Proposal to Pay People for Being Alive

Which brings us back to the Star Trek economic model
The Economic Lessons of Star Trek’s Money-Free Society

And while this may be the inevitable end game for humanity and economics, the question is can it be implemented now, and the answer is No imo. And for the very reasons we see the rising of the anti immigration populist sentiment.
If a country implements this without border controls, then people will simply flock there and overload the system. It would need to be implemented on a global scale or only in isolated countrys with strong border control