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When Will The Economy Collapse?

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kellyiom said:
I like this topic as it's something I do for a living so gives me a legitimate reason for research at work...I don't think it's imminent or near enough to place accurately but I do feel something big is happening . I did some research recently on long-term trends and in post war USA, $100 of debt had turned into $70,000 while the value of that dollar was debased by 99% or thereabouts . I haven't got the dataset in front of me but it was pretty phenomenal . When you have a debt problem you can only earn more to repay it, default on it or inflate it away. Looking at the major emerging market currencies they've all weakened over the last year except for China and China has only recently started reducing its exposure to US debt. If this signals the end of a carry trade or a bond buyers strike, the consequences could be massive.
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Thanks for the post
 
stonehart said:
Sorry for the late return post but have been up to my eyes in family junk.

Now as for an answer ... well Mikes post is a good example, and add to that the increasing pace at which the security industrial complex is being installed you get the idea that those at the top are getting a bit twitchy.

I like what you are saying about the sheer inertia due to size and I understand that this looks like it should be the case.. I however see an explosion or maybe implosion going on in slow motion..
Or another way to sum it up is like structural failure, things look fine right up to the moment the building falls down.
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We use a term in war gaming too, called Combat loss grouping.

Basically a force under fire will withstand it for a while, but then CLG kicks in and you have lots of casualtys all at once
 
stonehart said:
One day it will end my friend but at the rate we are moving and the increasing insanity portrayed by our leaders I feel this is what things will look like many years after.

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Detroit :D
 
like that description of combat loss grouping , very intuitive and easier concept to understand than a 'fat tail distribution '. Don't know about you guys in the US but I was told by someone with first hand experience that back in 2008 when the banks were dropping the UK's emergency cobra committee met to discuss contingencies in the event that a clearing (or money centre) bank would fail and wages and payrolls for millions of people wouldn't go through . Looking ahead, I'd wager any future crisis won't feature another Lehman scenario , it'll be somewhere that has less attention . Interbank lending rates in China spiked massively recently in a re-run of the western crisis . That was a pretty good indicator that something serious was going on . The current climate looks very like the Asian Crisis of 1997, where there were rising interest rates, currency imbalances and changes of leadership in the PRC
 
also, only yesterday I read something from Stuart Cowley one of the UK's leading bond managers who said to basically don't bother even trying to second guess big flows of money because there's so much going on behind the scenes you'd never be able to predict it. And on Bloomberg today, Stanley Druckenmiller said he can't make money in this environment so he wasn't going to try. When guys like this can't fathom it, that's serious .
 
stonehart said:
Ok this sort of thing is becoming a hot topic among many on YouTube and conspiracy sites so let us look at this and see if there really is grounds for this sort of thinking.

The video first with the case laid out.


So is this fear mongering or is there a legitimate case here that takes it beyond this and mere conspiracy ranting?

Just an interesting topic.
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At first I thought it might be another "hurry up and buy more gold" video to help prop up the worthless metal (it has very little real worth aside from its luster and gloss) so that other investors can profit. However, the site seems to be littered with videos about the the evil US government and bankers. I think its more in line with the leftist Chomskyian verbiage.

But then I watched more and kept seeing more nonsense about the printing of money and our getting off the gold standard. I find it curious that they don't realize just how bad the situation was before we got off the gold standard--but that's history, and they jerk-offs only want us to read the snippets of history that conform to their agenda. My thinking is that there's a great deal of suckers out in the world right now with huge piles of gold and the only thing propping them up is this nonsense propaganda.

I could be wrong of course...if anyone can show me what their true motives are I would be willing to consider the rest of it...but as of now I am weary of all the gold-herders and would rather spend my time on other more intellectually satisfying pursuits.

One thing they don't say is how exactly does waging war with other countries keep them attached to the so-called "petro-dollar." (this is the central crux-point of the whole presentation)

In addition these videos promote the idea of taking the government down by force if the "civil disobedience" phase "fails." Any phase that involves civil disobedience while maintaining a threat of force on failure of the government compliance ceases to be non-violent civil disobedience. What we end up with is anarchy.
 
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Michael Allen said:
At first I thought it might be another "hurry up and buy more gold" video to help prop up the worthless metal (it has very little real worth aside from its luster and gloss) so that other investors can profit. However, the site seems to be littered with videos about the the evil US government and bankers. I think its more in line with the leftist Chomskyian verbiage.

But then I watched more and kept seeing more nonsense about the printing of money and our getting off the gold standard. I find it curious that they don't realize just how bad the situation was before we got off the gold standard--but that's history, and they jerk-offs only want us to read the snippets of history that conform to their agenda. My thinking is that there's a great deal of suckers out in the world right now with huge piles of gold and the only thing propping them up is this nonsense propaganda.

I could be wrong of course...if anyone can show me what their true motives are I would be willing to consider the rest of it...but as of now I am weary of all the gold-herders and would rather spend my time on other more intellectually satisfying pursuits.

One thing they don't say is how exactly does waging war with other countries keep them attached to the so-called "petro-dollar." (this is the central crux-point of the whole presentation)

In addition these videos promote the idea of taking the government down by force if the "civil disobedience" phase "fails." Any phase that involves civil disobedience while maintaining a threat of force on failure of the government compliance ceases to be non-violent civil disobedience. What we end up with is anarchy.
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Agree .. do I have gold.. yes but not much at all, not crazy enough to pile up lots of it and the gold we have is used to make things LOL
 
There's got to be another side to this story...the internet is riddled with this hyperinflation nonsense and unless someone can prove to me that the gold-peddlers aren't just in it for quick profits I think we should dismiss it as noise.
 
I do not know when economy will collapse but you might ask these folks. I have posted this elsewhere but it is such an amazing piece of information for me, I am posting it again. From the article:

In this study, we decided to identify in detail the people on the boards of directors of the top ten asset management firms and the top ten most centralized corporations in the world. Because of overlaps, there is a total of thirteen firms, which collectively have 161 directors on their boards. We think that this group of 161 individuals represents the financial core of the world’s transnational capitalist class. They collectively manage $23.91 trillion in funds and operate in nearly every country in the world. They are the center of the financial capital that powers the global economic system. Western governments and international policy bodies work in the interests of this financial core to protect the free flow of capital investment anywhere in the world.

Exposing the Financial Core of the Transnational Capitalist Class | Global Research
 
I'm in the process of putting together some detailed research on a blog that wil kind of rebut the goldbug but square off some of the inconsistency . I mean, if you think inflation is coming, buy TIPS right? I think the big problem is the inflection point when our global carry trade ends or shifts allegiance . Part of it is going to hurt the dollar and cause inflation while just look at the BRIC currency situation vs the $. They don't want to devalue the renminbi and need to keep churning out new jobs . Trouble is, both inflation and deflation is occurring and we're on the wrong side of the trade unless we own substantial portfolios. That's unsustainable in my view .
 
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