The Extraterrestrial Hypothesis : Fact and Fallacy

[marduk]

I don't think that's a good idea. It makes more sense to me to continue distilling down whatever we've already got while improving methods and building on the progress that has already been made. Fair-minded consideration of anyone with an ounce of ambition to make a positive difference with a new idea should also be welcomed, but not at the expense of the rest. I mean just think about it. How exactly would we start fresh? It seems to me we'd have to begin collecting sighting reports, develop a screening process, and then a model for distilling the data down, and in the end if we were allowed to use historical reports we'd be no further ahead than we are now, and if we weren't allowed to use historical reports we be dismally behind, and ignoring some of the most significant evidence there is.

Except we’d be starting clean, with modern data gathering and fresh verifiable data - with no baggage.

 

[marduk]

The thing is any alternative explanations actually bolster the ETsH.

Crypto terrestrials....... well then if this planet can spawn multiple species of sentient technological life so can the other billion candidates in our galaxy alone.
Inter dimensional's.... same thing. (unless the argument is they are only local)
The only way the ETsH doesn't work is if we accept the premise that this single planet in a galaxy of billions of planets, in a universe of trillions of galaxy's is the single sole place sentient technological beings ever evolved in the time span of billions of years. Homo stupidis is only 300,000 years old, truly technological for the last what ? 200 years if that.

Crap on a graham cracker folks, the only way the ETsH is wrong, is if this one little corner of the universe is the only place this is happening.

Only the self centered self absorbed mindset of the infant (species) could embrace such a view.

Bingo. Well reasoned, Mike.

 

[marduk]

How about Dr Crary's diary, which indicates flight #4 was cancelled and as KDR noted, all the rest are accounted for. You should read Randle's latest book on Roswell, including its comprehensive refutation of the MOGUL thesis.

A diary about a flight being cancelled is going to refute the balloon theory?

Listen, it may not have been a balloon. My point is that I seriously doubt anybody is ever going to put a bullet in it - or nuke the premise from orbit definitively - and that means we will never get to the bottom of it.

So all this thinking could be better served elsewhere.

 

[marduk]

I didn’t think MK Ultra was deliberately disclosed - didn’t they burn most of the data and only disclose after a bunch of informants came forward?

 

[Creepy Green Light]

Exactly. So using 9/11 as an example, we have first reports that terrorist hijackers flew planes into the WTC. Personally I think that's exactly what happened. Then all the conspiracy stories started. With Roswell we have the press release that the USAAF retrieved a flying disk, then the story started to change, and when we go back to when the Roswell debris was first examined, people said some of the materials were really exotic. So maybe in both cases the initial reports are the ones that are the most accurate. So maybe that 5% chance of it being something alien could be more like somewhere between 5% and 65% . But even on the high end the chance of it being of human manufacture is still really high. Personally I don't believe it one way or the other. I just believe something out of the ordinary happened. Exactly what I don't know. Maybe it was all just some sort of Psy Ops campaign; an elaborate military hoax.

This part of the video I cued it up to makes sense to me, for the most part....(especially the crumpling up and then the release of the material)

Actually, my cue didn't work....jump to 9:05

 

[Creepy Green Light]

For those that haven't seen this, I thought you might enjoy it

 

[Burnt State]

I'm not saying there's enough of that for Roswell, but I do think that enough has been accumulated over time in the community at large that it's reasonable for people who have done their homework to believe that alien visitation is true, whether we have tangible non-anecdotal evidence or not. It's also reasonable to say that we could still be wrong about that. But that isn't enough of a reason to abandon the most promising course we have. So personally I have no problem saying I believe alien visitation is a reality until I'm shown sufficient counterpoint as to why I shouldn't.

The more I talk to and listen to the interesting minds on the field and those who have used their lovely IQ's to ponder the phenomenon over decades the more I see very skeptical people. You've been at it for a very long time and have a good brain - what is it exactly that bolsters your belief? What exactly is it that has been actually accumulated that gives you confidence? The more I look at it the more I see a sociological aspect dominating as there are so many elements in our culture that have historically collected to build a unique new modern myth for our times.

What I also see is a lot of pointing at radar returns and trace evidence like there's some kind of mountain of irrefutable proof that we can all comfortably stand on to say, Yup, must be aliens. But how many of these bits and pieces really speak to hardcore evidence that had the proper layers of investigation to come back with something more tangible than 5% unknown?

Unknown doesn't mean extraterrestrial it just means unknown. When I've looked at breakdowns of what on the surface are excellent cases and then some durn skeptic decides to see if they can replicate the evidence in mundane ways and then whadda ya know they do it, or another classic UFO photo gets determined as hoax I find I get both more cynical and stringent. I have to ask well which in fact are these good hardcore cases that we are all talking about? Or is it more about taking comfort in, to go back to another metaphor....it really looks like we got ducks.

We also need some tangible standards as well. What exactly is it that Ted Phillips or Ray Stanford has got because if it's substantial then I'm sorry but science would be all over it. Hessdalen is an important example of when there's something of real substance to investigate then truly curious and scientific minds will descend on tangibility and get results.

 

[Trajanus]

I didn’t think MK Ultra was deliberately disclosed - didn’t they burn most of the data and only disclose after a bunch of informants came forward?

AFAIK the public was unaware of ULTRA until it was disclosed in 1975---30 years after there was no longer any real need to keep it secret....

 

[Burnt State]

Yes. But the same goes for virtually all the cases we have access to. Therefore instead of laying all our bets on any particular case, a shift in perspective to a holistic model is the logical alternative, and when we do that, we get to take in a lot more variables and build a wider picture from a lot of small pieces, some of which fit and some of which don't. And just like a real puzzle, after a while you can intuit the missing pieces. This is the sort of progress I think ufology has made over time that I seem to have a hard time relaying to those who say we've gone nowhere.

But what exactly is it we have pieces of? That kind of holistic talk makes me think more that a myth is being built out of pieces as opposed to tangibility determining a theorem. And it's not like I'm throwing out all the pieces of the puzzle that have convinced me that there is a genuine mystery here but I'm curious to know about your confidence in intuiting the missing pieces in the way you have. Have you ever considered that much of the ETH may all be just a first level reading of the situation and that we may be purposely being led down a path to feed the ducks just because a lot of what's reported looks and like and quacks like a duck? In the ETH model we bend reports to fit into that model creating an elaborate scenario where either it's all about their technology (and there's an answer to everything that challenges this though for me the paradoxes regarding how retro their technology and methods are stands in start contrast to this) and/or we have literally thousands of different races visiting us non stop. Every day a new case report or more and a different species touching down on Earth. Had anyone looked at the variance of what has been seen on Rosales' Humanoids catalogue? Floating eyeballs as aliens anyone?

 

[Trajanus]

A diary about a flight being cancelled is going to refute the balloon theory?

Dr. Crary was the one who kept records of MOGUL launches. It's the key documentation which debunks MOGUL (though far from the only argument against it; as KDR has shown Moore falsified data to make it appear the answer...). Flight #4 was cancelled the others are accounted for i.e. came down in areas besides the Foster ranch.

Listen, it may not have been a balloon. My point is that I seriously doubt anybody is ever going to put a bullet in it - or nuke the premise from orbit definitively

This is precisely what KDR has done, to the satisfaction of the best informed people in the field.

we will never get to the bottom of it.

A bit too pessimistic. It'll have to await official disclosure--maybe 2100?

 

[Burnt State]

The thing is any alternative explanations actually bolster the ETsH.

Crypto terrestrials....... well then if this planet can spawn multiple species of sentient technological life so can the other billion candidates in our galaxy alone.
Inter dimensional's.... same thing. (unless the argument is they are only local)
The only way the ETsH doesn't work is if we accept the premise that this single planet in a galaxy of billions of planets, in a universe of trillions of galaxy's is the single sole place sentient technological beings ever evolved in the time span of billions of years. Homo stupidis is only 300,000 years old, truly technological for the last what ? 200 years if that.

Crap on a graham cracker folks, the only way the ETsH is wrong, is if this one little corner of the universe is the only place this is happening.

Only the self centered self absorbed mindset of the infant (species) could embrace such a view.

I don't subscribe to this thinking as it posits that just because there are other species then we must be being visited and it's all as simple as that. We know that life is probably everywhere and yet we've seen no concrete evidence of it yet anywhere in any of our explorations satellited or scoped into the vast distances that they reach. And the more potentially advanced a culture the more low risk automatic information gathering makes sense.

However I do leave room for the control system theory and that what's taking place is a global psych experiment by a singular (or plural) undefined agent. And while the interdimensional gets posited because some reports of crafts manipulating time and space suggest our physics knows nothing I prefer the other tenant scenario as simply something our senses do not normally have the capacity to see but perhaps under certain unique conditions we get exposed to Ultima Thule and get to through the veil of our sensory limitations. Or at least that's the gist of what I argue in my reframing essay.

 

[Trajanus]

Have you ever considered that much of the ETH may all be just a first level reading of the situation and that we may be purposely being led down a path to feed the ducks just because a lot of what's reported looks and like and quacks like a duck?

There's no superior competing hypothesis, not by a longshot. The key argument against the ETH--HS--can easily be explained by deliberate deception on the part of ET. The phenomenon is highly advanced, no doubt about it. Presumably, it really knows what it's doing. Considering how advanced it is, it wouldn't be surprising if the observed result of HS--doubt about the ETH--was the intended result. Given all the weird, clever HS, many of those best acquainted with UFOs get as "burned out" as you.

though for me the paradoxes regarding how retro their technology and methods are stands in start contrast to this)

In some cases it appears that way, though this may be explained by an inability to fit advanced gear into scout craft, for example.

and/or we have literally thousands of different races visiting us non stop. Every day a new case report or more and a different species touching down on Earth. Had anyone looked at the variance of what has been seen on Rosales' Humanoids catalogue? Floating eyeballs as aliens anyone?

Tom Morrison may disagree, but I don't think most of them are genuine in the sense of representing truly or independently evolved beings. A handful of races may be coming here but producing various "insectoid" and other forms as part of the HS deception.[/quote]

 

[Trajanus]

I don't subscribe to this thinking as it posits that just because there are other species then we must be being visited and it's all as simple as that. We know that life is probably everywhere and yet we've seen no concrete evidence of it yet anywhere in any of our explorations satellited or scoped into the vast distances that they reach.

Our ability to investigate extrasolar planets is very limited so this is misleading.

And the more potentially advanced a culture the more low risk automatic information gathering makes sense.

Na an advanced culture can afford to be bolder.

I prefer the other tenant scenario as simply something our senses do not normally have the capacity to see but perhaps under certain unique conditions we get exposed to Ultima Thule and get to through the veil of our sensory limitations.

Certain unique conditions--like when someone is alone in a remote area (perfect for ET to pounce) nice coincidence...

 

[Burnt State]

Everyone doubts everyone these days. Just like 9/11. Even though it was eye witnessed by 1000's and watched on tv by millions there are still the bogus conspiracy reports. BS like "I saw a missile launch from one of the planes and that's what blew up the building" to "these were CIA planes, the real passengers & planes were diverted somewhere else" and all of the other nonsense that goes along with it. I look at it this way; 9/11 was EYEWITNESSED by millions and yet, some people don't believe it. So we can imagine all the ludicrous versions that come about of a story that WAS NOT EYEWITNESSED.....and on top of that something that happened in 1947.....

If the UFO phenomenon is in part a modern era myth for our global culture then Roswell is an epic Old Testament entry, something along the lines of Genesis or Exodus.

 

[Burnt State]

Given all the weird, clever HS, many of those best acquainted with UFOs get as "burned out" as you.

I know you think this is funny but the truth is I've never been more engaged in the phenomenon in new ways and in interesting spaces. Engaging with you is not one of them so you'll forgive me if I take a pass on most of it. I still find that belief is one of the fundamental things that stops this conversation flat. Belief and judgment and certainty stops the conversation dead in its tracks so I'll leave you to it.

 

[Creepy Green Light]

Sure like crash dummies. And MOGUL.

Crash dummies is a a ludicrous explanation. Mogul is not.

 

[Creepy Green Light]

We also need some tangible standards as well. What exactly is it that Ted Phillips or Ray Stanford has got because of it's substantial then I'm sorry but science would be all over it.

Exactly.

And another "coincidence"; Now that we live in an era of cameras everywhere, including inside the homes of many people for security/protection reasons - now we get zero footage. I mean, if I was getting regularly abducted, probably after the first time it happened, would get a video camera hidden in my room as well as outside the house and in other rooms. Makes sense, right? But you're telling me NOT ONE person who is part of the abduction realm has thought to do this? And not one outside camera hasn't caught an object or an object doing a right angle turn? I'm also tired of the argument of "Nobody has their camera pointed up." That is so bogus. How about outside camera's that just are aimed horizontal to the ground? Lots of them still show the horizon with the sky above it. That's why when a giant meteor is shown on the news, the news channel can also show 2, 3, 4 or more different video's of it happening - because cameras have captured it (the ones that our outside of the home). This has happened twice in the last month or so. Even a dash cam will catch something. It's aimed out the front of the car & you'll have a view of the horizon and sky above.

It's like God & religion; all these "miracles" used to happen on the reg. Seas parting, people turned into salt, snakes with lips & vocal chords that can talk, etc. etc. But now that we live in an era of video cameras, these miracles cease happening altogether. You would think if there was a God, NOW is the time to perform a miracle. That way it's documented by 1000's of people and then God's existence wouldn't have to be debated any longer.

I'm also tired of the "it was at least a mile wide" UFO report. First off, the witness doesn't have a calibrated eyeball. They have no idea how big/small an object in the sky is. Second, if you had a mile wide flying object just over my beach town in NJ, and say it was traveling west towards Philadelphia, there would be 10's of 1000's of people that saw it and filmed it. As well as security cameras all over capturing the same object.

I've said this before, but if we could only get another case like the Ariel School, we would be leaps and bounds ahead of where we are now. I say that because any school today has a bajillion cameras in and around the school. The event would have been captured. But again, now that there are cameras everywhere, events like that do not happen anymore.

 

[Burnt State]

I've said this before, but if we could only get another case like the Ariel School, we would be leaps and bounds ahead of where we are now. I say that because any school today has a bajillion cameras in and around the school. The event would have been captured. But again, now that there are cameras everywhere, events like that do not happen anymore.

A great book would be just on school sightings and events. There are a number of landing cases involving schools and because of the range of witnesses and ranges of experience, there's a lot of rich data to be explored there. I wonder why it is we no longer see epic cases like this or why CE cases have gone from 10% of UFO reports to only 1% over the last 28 years (data from the always consistent Canadian UFO Report headed by Rutkowski - one of the last true ufologists)? There are these well defined periods in the UFO eras and we appear to be in a new one. Case reports are consistent but no one is talking about them.

 

[mike]

why CE cases have gone from 10% of UFO reports to only 1% over the last 28 year

If its the post biological hypothesis, ie: we are just the factory workers that the sophont of interest to the visitors is the one being created in their image. Synthetic intellect (with a human flavour.)
Then it makes sense that as the birth draws near they might withdraw so's not to contaminate the field.

Theyve tweaked our genes to make us smart, teased us to technological proficiancy and now need to stand back for the final phase.

If they are replicating the process by which they came into being, and that scenario involved creating SI in isolation then that fits.

You could push the envelope by uplifting suitable biologicals so they can repeat the scenario that created you, But if the circumstances that saw your creation were recorded in your history as happening in isolation without external influence then the impending birth of Homo Intellectus Syntheticus should be done in the same way.

Imagine it being like showing a child the canvas, paints and brushes and then stepping back and seeing what they create.

 

[marduk]

The more I talk to and listen to the interesting minds on the field and those who have used their lovely IQ's to ponder the phenomenon over decades the more I see very skeptical people. You've been at it for a very long time and have a good brain - what is it exactly that bolsters your belief? What exactly is it that has been actually accumulated that gives you confidence? The more I look at it the more I see a sociological aspect dominating as there are so many elements in our culture that have historically collected to build a unique new modern myth for our times.

What I also see is a lot of pointing at radar returns and trace evidence like there's some kind of mountain of irrefutable proof that we can all comfortably stand on to say, Yup, must be aliens. But how many of these bits and pieces really speak to hardcore evidence that had the proper layers of investigation to come back with something more tangible than 5% unknown?

Unknown doesn't mean extraterrestrial it just means unknown. When I've looked at breakdowns of what on the surface are excellent cases and then some durn skeptic decides to see if they can replicate the evidence in mundane ways and then whadda ya know they do it, or another classic UFO photo gets determined as hoax I find I get both more cynical and stringent. I have to ask well which in fact are these good hardcore cases that we are all talking about? Or is it more about taking comfort in, to go back to another metaphor....it really looks like we got ducks.

We also need some tangible standards as well. What exactly is it that Ted Phillips or Ray Stanford has got because if it's substantial then I'm sorry but science would be all over it. Hessdalen is an important example of when there's something of real substance to investigate then truly curious and scientific minds will descend on tangibility and get results.

For me, I’d call this whole ‘field’ BS if I hadn’t seen these things first hand.

A substantial fraction of my life has been trying to reconcile the 99% of my life which makes sense with the 1% that doesn’t.

It would be easier, frankly, if I was just totally insane for certain segments of my life. But even that doesn’t hold up.